# embedding_metadata

key: chroma:document
string_value:
1. A key challenge encountered was the conflict created 
when the same CAHWs/VPPs who provided free 
government vaccination services to farmers were then 
expected to offer similar services for a fee. 
Why?: The main reason is that this dual role created 
confusion and mistrust among farmers, who assumed 
that the vaccines were still being provided for free. 
1, To upscale the model, we will scale the CAHWs/VPPs model by 
supporting partners to expand their businesses into new 
geographies, building on the success of the existing network and 
leveraging the momentum generated by community sensitization 
efforts. Additionally, we will focus on strengthening the market 
system by promoting a fair and competitive environment, 
mitigating distortionary effects, and fostering equitable


key: chroma:document
string_value:
system by promoting a fair and competitive environment, 
mitigating distortionary effects, and fostering equitable 
competition, to ensure the long-term sustainability of the 
veterinary services market.
2. Field visits to program states revealed a growing demand for 
larger markets among smallholder farmers who are vaccinating 
their livestock, driven by increasing flock sizes. This insight 
highlights the need to expand market access and opportunities for 
these farmers, enabling them to sell their livestock and products 
more effectively. To address this need, we can explore strategies to 
connect smallholder farmers to larger markets, such as linking 
them with bigger buyers, improving market infrastructure, or 
providing training on market access and trade.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
them with bigger buyers, improving market infrastructure, or 
providing training on market access and trade.
3. Through learning events and knowledge products, it became 
clear that some non-partners hold expectations that the program 
will drive the model with minimal contribution from them. This 
highlights a need for clearer communication and expectation-
setting around the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders, 
including non-partners, to ensure collaborative progress and 
sustainability of the model.
1. NVRI stopped producing vaccines at some point in the 
quarter which has led to shortage in vaccine supply 
potentially weakening distribution by rural entrprenuers 
and uptake smallholder farmers.
Why
NVRI notes breakdown in key vaccine production 
equipment


key: chroma:document
string_value:
and uptake smallholder farmers.
Why
NVRI notes breakdown in key vaccine production 
equipment
2.One of our partner (Dan Hassan Ventures) had some 
challenge with Katsina state Ministry of Agric where he 
was asked to stop implementation.
Why
Operational bottlenecks and political interests from the 
state actors
1. Facilitate linkages between programme partners and vaccine 
importers 
2. Was able to enagegd with the policy team where they looked 
into the sitaution and provided support to the partner.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5.Experienced difficulties while engaging AMBUVET staff. 
particularly in relations to responsivenes and tone of 
communication.
6. It was noticed that during farmer verification, some 
CAHWs/VPPs who were convasant with the current tool 
are falsifying farmers data. 
WHY
due to some incentoives they recieve from partners, and 
were not informed that the datas would verified 
1. providing TA support if required by El-Beth
 2. Policy unit may step in to rsolve any bottlenecks that may occur 
 3. Further engagement with the relevant stakeholders on the 
outcome of the study carried out on the livestock vaccine 
bottleneck study to further ease of importation.
4. Propcom+ provided technical and advocacy support to the 
partner which strengthened their pitch/position to implement the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
partner which strengthened their pitch/position to implement the 
model, thereby gaining confidence from the Katsina State Ministry 
of Livestock
5.there should be disucssions between AMBUVET and Propcom+ 
management towards resolving any underlying issues


key: chroma:document
string_value:
What was the outcome of the action you took?
(for Y3 Q3 QSR)
For Plenary Presentation & Discussion and Quarterly Reporting:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
4. Dan Hassan is now back to implementing the CAHW/VPP 
model after receiving approval from the Katsina State Ministry 
of Livestock
5. on the fake farmers data,  a meeting was held with partnes, 
who took actions by following up with the individual CAHW/VPP 
to ensure that it did not happen again. 
Also, partners have borne it upon themselves  to create a 
system or a model they can verfy data before sending to the 
programme MERL team


key: chroma:document
string_value:
What did you learn from this?
(for Y3 Q3 QSR)
For Plenary Presentation & Discussion and Quarterly Reporting:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-10: Learning for Cross-Cutting Components
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What policies/regulations have been 
identified as possible barriers to the progress 
of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to address these barriers?
27/01/2025Regulation backing NVRI as the sole producer 
of vaccines in Nigeria
Advocacy drive and technical support to 
relevant ministries ( particularly Ministry of 
livestock Development) on the review of 
regulations backing NVRI as the sole producer 
of vaccines in Nigeria27/01/2025Poor regulatory framework guiding vaccine 
importation. No incentives to attract foreign 
investment
Improved integration and implementation of 
the PPP framework for vaccines importation 
and production


key: chroma:document
string_value:
investment
Improved integration and implementation of 
the PPP framework for vaccines importation 
and production 
27/01/2025Weak Surveillance Mechanisms and disease 
reporting stations to reduce the outbreak/ 
spread of diseases (e.g. the recent outbreak 
of Haemorrhagic Septicaemia in Taraba and 
other notable outbreaks in 2024)
Rebuild of the NADIS disease reporting 
platform to meet the expections/ requirments 
for disease and surveillance; as well as the 
remapping of disease reporting stations. 
Discussions are ongoing with FAO and the 
FMAFS on this. 
Y3 Q3 QSR: 
12/01/26
the Tax Reforms are not fully understood
To improve complementary action on Enabling Policy (P3), GESI, PEA, Conflict Sensitivity, Operations
ENABLING POLICY (P3 Pathway A)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What specific social norms/behaviours have 
been identified as possible barriers to the 
progress of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to address these barriers?
27/01/2025Perceived social status of female 
CAHWs/VPPs in the family and community 
which might affect their entry and influence.
Engaging traditional, religious leaders, and 
heads of houshold to encourage the 
participation of females CAHWs/VPPs. 
27/01/2025Gender roles restricts female workers 
Mobility or Acceptance in the implementing 
states
Engaging traditional, religious leaders, and 
heads of houshold to encourage the 
participation of females CAHWs/VPPs. 
27/01/2025Limited number of female CAHWs/VPPs Integration/ training of more female


key: chroma:document
string_value:
27/01/2025Limited number of female CAHWs/VPPs Integration/ training of more female 
CAHWs/VPPs to facilitate efficient service 
delivery and allow them interface more with 
female SHFs esecially in places where culture 
doesn’t permit the mixing of sexes. Engage 
with Women Cooperatives, and groups
Y3 Q1 QSR: 
23/06/25 
Prejudice against women in agriculture 
discourages female rural distributors and 
female  CAHWs/VPPs and their abilities are 
often questioned by smallholder farmers 
organize experience and knowledge sharing 
across programme state, mainly focusing on 
the female CAHW initiative by showcasing 
real-life testimonials and experiences  
Y3 Q1 QSR: 
23/06/25 
The fear of safety by the current few female 
CAHWs/VPPs particularly when they travel


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Y3 Q1 QSR: 
23/06/25 
The fear of safety by the current few female 
CAHWs/VPPs particularly when they travel 
from one community to another 
Female CAHWs/VPPs will receive training on 
personal safety, use a buddy system.
Y3 Q1 QSR: 
23/06/25 
There's a perception that livestock sector is 
male dominated and access to finance is also 
restricting female veterinarians to be agro-
dealers and also CAHWs/VPPs 
Suport partners in targeted training, financial 
support, and policy advocacy to promote 
female participation and entrepreneurship.
Y3 Q3 QSR: 
12/01/26
Illegal Mining activities, resulting in reduced 
man power for sustainable farming and 
vaccine/veterinary service delivery
N/A
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What gaps in our (P+ and parnters)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vaccine/veterinary service delivery
N/A
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What gaps in our (P+ and parnters) 
understanding of the PE have been identified 
as possible barriers to the progress of this 
intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to address these barriers?
27/01/2025 The reduced public veterinary services and 
the emergence of predatory private sector 
actors. 
Strengthen animal vaccination and control 
diseases through the Public-Private 
Partnership (PPP) framework 
GENDER, EQUITY, & SOCIAL INCLUSION
POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS


key: chroma:document
string_value:
27/01/2025 The reduced public veterinary services and 
the emergence of predatory private sector 
actors. 
Strengthen animal vaccination and control 
diseases through the Public-Private 
Partnership (PPP) framework 
Y3 Q3 QSR: 
12/01/26
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What specific conflict/security risks have 
been identified as possible barriers to the 
progress of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to address these barriers?
27/01/2025Political instability and armed conflicts Advocacy to promote conflict resolution and 
peace building
27/01/2025Social and Ethnic divisions Clearly communicate vaccine allocations 
criteria to avoid the perception of favoritism 
or bias (Transparency)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
criteria to avoid the perception of favoritism 
or bias (Transparency)
27/01/2025Resource related conflicts Building community trust through inclusive 
andparticipatory planning and transparent 
vaccine allocation
27/01/2025Personal safety of CAHWs/VPPs Strenghtening partnerships with local leaders 
and stakeholdersto ensure safe access
27/01/2025Logistical and cold chain challenges Leveraging CSA technology
27/01/2025Misinformation and distrust Implement community-based awareness 
campaigns to address misinformation about 
vaccines, their uses and the CAHW/VPP 
model
Y3 Q1 QSR: 
23/06/25 
Communal clashes and banditery Encouraging CAHWs/VPPs in the prone 
location to take safety measures 
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What nutritional, environmental


key: chroma:document
string_value:
location to take safety measures 
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What nutritional, environmental 
sustainability, and/or climate factors have 
been identified as potential barriers to the 
progress of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to address these barriers?
NUTRITION, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, and/or CLIMATE
CONFLICT SENSITIVITY


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Y3 Q3 QSR: 
12/01/26
Illegal Mining  activities, causing land 
degredation in some partner states.
N/A
Date of 
reflection or 
review
What specific operational arrangements in 
P+ (HR, FM, AM) have been identified as 
constraints to the progress of this 
intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to address these constraints?
OPERATIONS


key: chroma:document
string_value:
What changes in policy/regulation would 
enhance adoption, adaptation, expansion 
and response of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to effect these changes?
Responsible?
Review existing regulations backing NVRI as 
sole producer of vaccine in Nigeria
Plans to unravel the existance of the 
document that supports NVRI as the sole 
producer of vaccine 
P3 
N/A Support to NVRI towards the unbundling of 
NVRI in order to attract investors through the 
PPP framework, and in turn improve vaccine 
supply
P3 
N/A Support FMAFS on the rebuild of the NADIS 
platform, building on initial engagement with 
FAO- ECTAD CTL to define better structures 
for disease surveillance and the remapping of 
disease reporting stations, 
Advocacy engagements for improved


key: chroma:document
string_value:
for disease surveillance and the remapping of 
disease reporting stations, 
Advocacy engagements for improved 
budgetary allocations to sustain efforts on 
disease reporting and surveillance
P3 
To improve complementary action on Enabling Policy (P3), GESI, PEA, Conflict Sensitivity, Operations
ENABLING POLICY (P3 Pathway A)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
What changes in social norms/ behaviours 
would enhance adoption, adaptation, 
expansion and response of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to effect these changes?
Responsible?
targeted recruitment through womenʼs 
groups, cooperatives, and organizations for 
women and PWDs
Ensure that partners are actively involved in 
the community engagment and senstization, 
working with women groups, cooperatives, 
and PWDs 
P1/ 
implementing 
partners 
Sensitization of heads of households can 
enhance adoption (a casestudy of Ummi 
Abdullahi, CAHW Jigawa State)
Leveraging on the positive/successful female 
CAHW beneficiary testimonials as an 
advocacy tool to enhance adoption 
P1/ 
implementing 
partners 
Collaborating with community leaders to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
advocacy tool to enhance adoption 
P1/ 
implementing 
partners 
Collaborating with community leaders to 
facilitate entry into such communities and 
getting permission to train women to become 
CAHWs/VPPs 
Subsidizing Training and VCN certification 
especially for female CAHWs/VPPs 
Implementing 
Partners
Collaborate with women-led corporatives to 
see the commercial viability of the model and 
linkage with more women
Integrating women led corporatives into the 
model as CAHWs/VPPs to provide vaccination 
services in their communities 
Implementing 
Partners
Support partners in increasing  community 
acceptance, recognition of women's roles, and 
respect for female CAHWs/VPPs.
Support partners in encouraging women to 
work within their communitites and ensure 
they move in peers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Support partners in encouraging women to 
work within their communitites and ensure 
they move in peers 
Implementing 
Partners
Support partners to collaborate with 
community/religious leaders and women led 
coporatives but build women comfidence and 
participation in livestock sector 
Encourage women inclusiveness across 
veterinary Pharm. Distribution value chain
Implementing 
Partners
N/A N/A
What specific PE analysis or contextual 
research would enhance adoption, 
adaptation, expansion and response of this 
intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to access or undertake this?
Responsible?
conduct stakeholder engagements, and 
organizing workshops to sensitize 
stakeholders about the PPP framework
stakeholder interests, roles, and potential


key: chroma:document
string_value:
organizing workshops to sensitize 
stakeholders about the PPP framework
stakeholder interests, roles, and potential 
risks, which will inform subsequent advocacy 
and engagement activities.
P3
GENDER, EQUITY, & SOCIAL INCLUSION
POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS


key: chroma:document
string_value:
conduct stakeholder engagements, and 
organizing workshops to sensitize 
stakeholders about the PPP framework
stakeholder interests, roles, and potential 
risks, which will inform subsequent advocacy 
and engagement activities.
P3
What conflict/security risk management 
strategies would enhance adoption, 
adaptation, expansion and response of this 
intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to employ these strategies?
Responsible?
Involve neutral humanitarian organizations to 
mediate access and ensure the perception of 
impartiality in vaccine distribution
Partners
Use vaccine delivery programs to promote 
cooperation amongs divided communities, 
fostering peace through shared benefits
Partners
Partners, 
CAHWs/VPPs
PPP. Collaborate with private sector partners


key: chroma:document
string_value:
fostering peace through shared benefits
Partners
Partners, 
CAHWs/VPPs
PPP. Collaborate with private sector partners 
to enhance logistics and cold chain managent
Support Private 
sector market 
Actors
 Community sensitization, trusted messenger 
engagement, and transparent communication 
about vaccine benefits and risks
Community 
stakeholders, 
CAHWs/VPPs
collaborate with private sector partner in 
Providing CAHWs/VPPs with conflict 
sensitivity training, risk management skills.
Partners 
What nutritional, environmental 
sustainability, and/or climate factors would 
enhance adoption, adaptation, expansion 
and response of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to integrate these factors?
Responsible?
NUTRITION, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, and/or CLIMATE


key: chroma:document
string_value:
taken, to integrate these factors?
Responsible?
NUTRITION, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, and/or CLIMATE
CONFLICT SENSITIVITY


key: chroma:document
string_value:
N/A N/A
What changes in operational arrangements 
in P+ would enhance adoption, adaptation, 
expansion and response of this intervention?
What action needs to be taken, or is being 
taken, to effect these changes?
Responsible?
OPERATIONS


key: chroma:document
string_value:
By when? Was it done? What was the outcome of this action: what 
contribution has it made to the progress and 
achievements of this intervention?
N/A Y2 Q3 QSR: 
27/01/25
Ongoing 
Ongoing 
Y3 Q1 QSR: 
23/06/25 
Y3 Q2 QSR: 
29/09/25
To improve complementary action on Enabling Policy (P3), GESI, PEA, Conflict Sensitivity, Operations
ENABLING POLICY (P3 Pathway A)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Y3 Q3 QSR: 
12/01/26
By when? Was it done? What was the outcome of this action: what 
contribution has it made to the progress and 
achievements of this intervention?
N/A
N/A
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
Ongoing
By when? Was it done? What was the outcome of this action: what 
contribution has it made to the progress and 
achievements of this intervention?
Yes
GENDER, EQUITY, & SOCIAL INCLUSION
POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Yes
By when? Was it done? What was the outcome of this action: what 
contribution has it made to the progress and 
achievements of this intervention?
By when? Was it done? What was the outcome of this action: what 
contribution has it made to the progress and 
achievements of this intervention?
NUTRITION, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, and/or CLIMATE
CONFLICT SENSITIVITY


key: chroma:document
string_value:
By when? Was it done? What was the outcome of this action: what 
contribution has it made to the progress and 
achievements of this intervention?
OPERATIONS


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Headlines
For Plenary Presentation & Discussion and Quarterly Reporting:
From what you have learnt across all five categories, 
what was the most significant cross-cutting BARRIER to 
the progress of this intervention discovered during the 
period under review?
Summarise the action you are going to take to address 
this BARRIER.
Gender roles, restriction of female entrepreneurs in 
selection and participation as CAHWs/VPPs, their Mobility 
and Acceptance in the implementing states.
Engaging traditional, religious leaders, and heads of 
household to encourage the participation of females 
CAHWs/VPPs.
1. One of the most significant cross-cutting barriers to 
progress discovered during the period under review was 
the prevalent prejudice against women in agriculture,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
progress discovered during the period under review was 
the prevalent prejudice against women in agriculture, 
which hinders the participation and effectiveness of female 
rural distributors and CAHWs/VPPs, as they often face 
skepticism and questioning of their abilities by smallholder 
farmers.
2. A significant cross-cutting barrier was the perception 
that the livestock sector is male dominated, compounded 
by restricted access to finance, which hinders female 
veterinarians  ability to become agro dealers and limits the 
growth of female CAHWs/VPPs.
1. To address this barrier, we will design and implement 
targeted sensitization and training programs to challenge 
and change attitudes towards women in agriculture, 
promote gender equality, and build confidence in female


key: chroma:document
string_value:
and change attitudes towards women in agriculture, 
promote gender equality, and build confidence in female 
CAHWs/VPPs and rural distributors, ensuring they have the 
support and recognition needed to effectively serve 
smallholder farmers.
2. Implement strategies to promote gender inclusivity, 
provide targeted support and training to female 
CAHWs/VPPs and veterinarians, and explore innovative 
financing options to enhance their access to resources and 
opportunities, ultimately fostering a more equitable and 
sustainable livestock sector.
nothing reported nothing reported


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Illegal Mining activities, resulting in reduced man power for 
sustainable farming and vaccine/veterinary service 
delivery
nothing reported


key: chroma:document
string_value:
For Plenary Presentation & Discussion and Quarterly Reporting:
What did you learn from this?
(for Y3 Q3 QSR)
What was the outcome of the action you took?
(for Y3 Q3 QSR)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1 
 OFFICIAL OFFICIAL 
 
 
  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 Propcom+ Livestock and Animal Health Portfolio 
 December 2025


key: source
string_value:
/Users/olusojiapampa/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/Documents/Proposals/PropCom/PropCom+/propcom-rrca/data/corpus/10_intervention_A_livestock_last_mile_vaccines/Final Propcom+ Livestock Portfolio Strategy Accompanying Narrative (1).pdf


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2 
 
  
Table of Contents 
 
 
Portfolio Summary ......................................................................................................... 3 
1.1 Market vision ...................................................................................................................... 3 
1.2 Portfolio theory of change .................................................................................................... 3 
1.3 Interventions and intended results ......................................................................................... 3 
2. Background ........................................................................................................................... 3


key: chroma:document
string_value:
3. Previous interventions and learning......................................................................................... 5 
4. Market systems analysis ......................................................................................................... 6 
5. Intervention Detail ............................................................................................................... 10 
6. Results ................................................................................................................................ 17


key: chroma:document
string_value:
3 
 
Portfolio Summary 
1.1 Market vision 
A thriving rural animal health and vaccines market characterised by local commercial production and 
distribution of suitable vaccines for smallholder farmers, and routine vaccination against endemic 
diseases in states. 
1.2 Portfolio theory of change 
 
If (i) suitable vaccine supply becomes reliable and affordable (including thermotolerant options and 
pack sizes that work for rural farmers), and (ii) last-mile delivery is scaled through commercially viable 
service providers ( CAHWs/VPPs) supported by VPDs and VPCs, and (iii) state and national 
institutions strengthen surveillance, reporting, standards, and routine vaccination financing through


key: chroma:document
string_value:
institutions strengthen surveillance, reporting, standards, and routine vaccination financing through 
workable PPP arrangements, then smallholders will vaccinate more consistently, disease incidence will 
fall, mortality will reduce, and rural households will become more resilient —with gains for incomes, 
nutrition, and women’s economic participation. 
 
The portfolio therefore operates as a coherent package of three interventions (1.1 –1.3) that address 
linked failures across supply, distribution, last-mile services, and governance. 
 
1.3 Interventions and intended results 
The portfolio focuses on three related interventions: 
• 1.1 Strengthening last-mile access through replicating and scaling the CAHW/VPP model.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• 1.1 Strengthening last-mile access through replicating and scaling the CAHW/VPP model. 
• 1.2 Increasing access to affordable poultry/livestock vaccine supply. 
• 1.3 Strengthening institutional capacity for livestock disease prevention  (surveillance, 
reporting, budgets, standards, PPP framework). 
 
By end of year 3, the portfolio targets the following headline results: 
• 15 VPCs supported (including companies scaling CAHW/VPP models across multiple states). 
• 300,000 vaccine vials distributed (vaccines sold as a direct result of programme support). 
• 1,500 CAHWs/VPPs trained and active (targeting 20–30% women). 
• 2 investment deals brokered for NVRI and other veterinary companies. 
• 1 nationally adopted PPP framework for routine vaccination, with PPP agreements in 3 states.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• 1 nationally adopted PPP framework for routine vaccination, with PPP agreements in 3 states. 
• 500,000 rural farmers with enhanced resilience (targeting 60% women). 
2. Background 
The livestock market is a major contributor to rural livelihoods, nutrition, and food security in Nigeria, 
and it contributes materially to the wider economy. The sector is pro -poor, with more than 80% of 
production and participation concentrated in rural smallholders. Small ruminants (combined population 
cited at 124.9 million) contribute about 15% of total household income across Nigeria, while small -
scale producers supply close to 80% of livestock products to markets. Despite this, there is an estimated 
30–50% deficit in meat and egg supply, creating clear market opportunities for smallholders if


key: chroma:document
string_value:
30–50% deficit in meat and egg supply, creating clear market opportunities for smallholders if 
productivity and animal survival can be improved.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
4 
 
The strategy deck cites a livestock population value of GBP 535.78 million (with approximately 70% 
as poultry) and an annual growth rate of 12.7%, describing the sector as vibrant and relevant. It also 
notes the sector’s importance in periods of seasonal f ood insecurity (the “hungry months”), when 
livestock functions as a critical household asset and source of revenue. 
Animal health is a binding constraint. Nigeria has approximately 3,500 actively practicing veterinary 
doctors out of a total of 9,000, and requires an estimated 3,870 active vets to meet demand across 774 
LGAs using a benchmark of 5 vets per LGA. Preventable diseases such as Newcastle disease (ND) and 
peste des petits ruminants (PPR) impose significant costs. The strategy cites losses of about GBP 6


key: chroma:document
string_value:
peste des petits ruminants (PPR) impose significant costs. The strategy cites losses of about GBP 6 
million annually due to ND and PPR, with climate change (including rising temperatures and heat 
waves) increasing susceptibility to disease and reducing output (eggs, milk) and product quality. 
Routine vaccination is therefore a high -leverage intervention. The strategy argues that proactive 
immunisation of poultry and small ruminants can drive strong increases in flock size and reduce 
household vulnerability, with potential to support roughly 30 million rural farming households and 
generate substantial revenue gains (deck figure: GBP 4.32 billion annually). In addition to direct poverty


key: chroma:document
string_value:
generate substantial revenue gains (deck figure: GBP 4.32 billion annually). In addition to direct poverty 
and nutrition effects, improved animal health supports climate adaptation by protecting flocks against 
disease shocks linked to climate stressors. 
2.1 Core Constraints 
• Vaccine supply and production: Local production by NVRI is currently below 15% of national 
demand, with national demand estimated at about 800 million doses. 
• Market structure: A single -producer monopoly in vaccine supply and production, reinforced by 
federal policy, discourages private-sector participation. 
• Disease control: Weak implementation of disease control programmes, including systemic 
breakdown of surveillance and reporting.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
breakdown of surveillance and reporting. 
• Public finance: Poor state funding for routine vaccinations, disease control surveillance, and 
reporting; limited advocacy and budget allocation for prevention. 
• Standards and training: Limited regulations and weak institutional arrangements for CAHW and 
paraprofessional training standards, and poor adaptation/implementation of CAHW models in 
states. 
• Import environment: Poor regulatory framework guiding vaccine importation. 
• Service and infrastructure gaps: Insufficient manpower; weak diagnostics and limited cold storage 
infrastructure; low rural reach and high logistics costs. 
2.2 Alignment with Propcom+ impact areas 
The portfolio is positioned to contribute across multiple Propcom+ impact areas as captured in the 
strategy:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The portfolio is positioned to contribute across multiple Propcom+ impact areas as captured in the 
strategy: 
• Climate adaptation: Improved vaccine access reduces disease risk associated with climate stressors, 
increasing farmers’ ability to cope with shocks. 
• Poverty reduction: Lower disease incidence improves flock survival and household incomes; 
CAHWs/VPPs also gain income through fee-based services. 
• Nutrition: Higher survival and larger flocks increase access to animal protein. 
• Women’s economic empowerment: Improved survival rates increase incomes in women-managed 
flocks; women also participate as service providers in the chain. 
• Climate mitigation: Reduced mortality avoids emissions associated with deadweight; healthier


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Climate mitigation: Reduced mortality avoids emissions associated with deadweight; healthier 
animals have better feed conversion, reducing feed-related emissions.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5 
 
3. Previous interventions and learning 
The portfolio builds on proven models and lessons from Propcom Mai -Karfi (PM) and related efforts, 
and it responds to evidence on what scales and what risks undermining systemic change. 
3.1 Proven models from prior analysis 
Three proven models are highlighted in the strategy: 
• Community-based Animal Health Worker (CAHW) model: PM developed a community 
vaccinators’ network that evolved into the CAHW model to strengthen delivery channels and create 
rural micro -entrepreneurs through fee -based services. Over 3,000 vaccinators were o nboarded, 
including 300 CAHWs providing vaccination services for a fee to smallholders. 
• Improving rural vaccine supply through activation of peri -urban distributors: PM facilitated


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Improving rural vaccine supply through activation of peri -urban distributors: PM facilitated 
linkages between NVRI and pharmaceutical suppliers/distributors for delivery of ND -I2 vaccine 
and PPR vaccines to rural farmers, including pastoralists. Over a decade, NVRI increased NDV-I2 
supply from 250,000 doses annually to 12 million doses annually, alongside expansion of 
distributor networks. 
• Institutional strengthening and PPPs for routine vaccination: PM facilitated a PPP model for 
statewide vaccination campaigns working with state distributors alongside CAHWs. A pilot in 
Kaduna reportedly reached 80% vaccine coverage in priority LGAs and saw an estimated 70% drop 
in suspected NCD and PPR cases, followed by state budget allocations for routine vaccination


key: chroma:document
string_value:
in suspected NCD and PPR cases, followed by state budget allocations for routine vaccination 
(captured in the 2024 budget). 
3.2 Key lessons learned 
• Supply-side constraints remain binding: despite prior gains, the vaccine market is still nascent; 
NVRI remains the sole supplier of suitable vaccines and reaches only an estimated 2 –5% of the 
market. Addressing supply requires unlocking finance for local p roduction and/or alternative 
importation of vaccines suitable for SHFs. 
• Unstructured market responses can create quality risks: increased interest in rural markets has 
driven proliferation of unsupported distributors and last-mile agents. Without standards and quality 
assurance, this can increase counterfeit/grey-market risks and undermine trust.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
assurance, this can increase counterfeit/grey-market risks and undermine trust. 
• Macro conditions matter: the current macro -environment is unfavourable for long -horizon 
investment in vaccines; an expanded approach is needed that de -risks investment and strengthens 
enabling conditions. 
• Asset-heavy cold-chain solutions are not automatically scalable: pilots of solar fridges improved 
storage at fixed locations, but uptake and utilisation were insufficient to justify scale. High -capital 
fixed assets align poorly with mobile vaccination mode ls (notably for pastoralist and semi -
pastoralist farmers) and risk subsidy-dependence. 
• Prioritise systemic constraints over technology -led fixes: the strategy recommends reallocating


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Prioritise systemic constraints over technology -led fixes: the strategy recommends reallocating 
effort toward interventions that directly unlock access at scale (supply, pricing, incentives, service 
delivery) and prioritising thermostable vaccines and demand-driven distribution models that reduce 
reliance on fixed cold chain assets. 
• Standards and regulatory acceptance are decisive: low-cost cold-chain models did not consistently 
meet SON/WHO standards, limiting confidence and regulatory acceptance; this reinforces the need 
for clear standards and compliance pathways.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
6 
 
4. Market systems analysis 
The livestock and animal health vaccine market system is characterised by high latent demand, binding 
supply constraints, weak rural distribution, and governance failures. Smallholders face poor access to 
vaccines and animal health services, while service providers face high logistics costs, limited mobility 
support, weak diagnostics, and low information flows. At the system level, weak disease 
surveillance/reporting, underfunded public prevention programmes, and incomplete standards for 
paraprofessionals contribute to persistent disease prevalence and economic losses. 
 
4.1 Market system overview 
The strategy identifies market failures and governance failures that drive underperformance, including:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The strategy identifies market failures and governance failures that drive underperformance, including: 
high capital cost for manufacturing plants; high import costs limiting interest to invest in distribution; 
absence of mobility support for last -mile agents; limited cold chain in rural areas; high rural logistics 
costs; limited farmer knowledge of vaccination benefits; poor data for planning; weak extension; and 
weak regulatory frameworks for importation and service provision. 
Figure 1: Livestock Vaccine Market System 
 
 
 
The actor map shows a market system where end users —poultry and livestock smallholder farmers 
(≈20m+)—sit at the top of the chain, drawing vaccines and animal -health services through a set of 
overlapping delivery routes.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
overlapping delivery routes.  
On the supply side, NVRI (with NVRI outstations) anchors domestic vaccine production and interfaces 
with federal/state government (notably for campaigns and public programmes). In parallel, private 
supply enters via vaccine importers (≈15) and flows into v accine/drug distribution companies (≈50). 
These distributors supply the “last mile” through a service-and-retail layer made up of agrovets (≈200), 
private veterinarians, and paraprofessionals —especially CAHWs.  NGOs also operate as a secondary 
channel in some locations.  
Oversight and rules sit with VCN (regulator), which influences standards, training, and legitimacy of 
paraprofessional delivery. T


key: chroma:document
string_value:
7 
 
his structure matters for Propcom+ and smallholders because it combines very large reach potential at 
the farmer level with multiple scalable commercial channels, meaning that improvements in vaccine 
availability, pack-size suitability, quality assurance, and last-mile incentives can translate quickly into 
higher vaccination coverage, lower disease losses, and therefore durable income and resilience gains—
without relying on continuous free distribution. 
 
Figure 2: Actor Map of Vaccine Market 
 
4.2 Core Market and Supporting Functions Constraints and opportunities 
The table below reproduces the core market , as well as the supporting functions and rules, while 
providing a  constraints and opportunities analysis. 
Core Constraints Opportunities Actors 
Vaccine production


key: chroma:document
string_value:
providing a  constraints and opportunities analysis. 
Core Constraints Opportunities Actors 
Vaccine production 
& importation 
Limited local capacity 
(NVRI); stock-outs of 
priority vaccines 
(e.g., ND, PPR); 
forex-driven costs; 
long lead 
times/clearance 
delays; weak 
forecasting from 
fragmented demand 
Diversify 
importers/suppliers; 
expand thermostable 
vaccines for rural 
settings; improve 
digital demand 
forecasting; 
modernise production 
lines where feasible 
NVRI; vaccine 
manufacturers; 
vaccine importers; 
regulators/agencies 
Distribution, cold 
chain, & wholesale 
Urban concentration; 
weak rural 
penetration; high 
cold-chain costs; 
price mark -ups; low 
perceived margin 
discourages rural 
investment; limited 
Rural cold -chain 
hubs; expand regional


key: chroma:document
string_value:
perceived margin 
discourages rural 
investment; limited 
Rural cold -chain 
hubs; expand regional 
wholesale networks; 
performance 
incentives to reach 
underserved LGAs; 
bundle vaccines with 
other inputs to 
improve margin 
Vet Pharma 
distributors; regional 
wholesalers; agro -vet 
dealers; cold -
chain/logistics 
providers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
8 
 
quality visibility 
during transport 
Last-mile 
vaccination services 
Rural shortage of 
vaccinators; 
CAHW/VPP business 
models weak and 
informal; limited 
diagnostics leading to 
wrong vaccine 
choices; high travel 
cost to remote farmers 
Expand + certify 
CAHW/VPP 
networks with clear 
scope; package 
diagnostics + 
vaccination + 
advisory; 
scheduling/route 
optimisation tools; 
integrate CAHWs 
into state plans 
CAHWs; VPPs; State 
DVS/VCN (scope & 
integration) 
 
Support  
Functions and 
Rules 
Constraints Opportunities Actors 
Cold chain & 
power 
reliability 
Rural electrification 
low; frequent outages; 
cold-chain failures and 
high costs; vaccine 
quality risk during 
storage/transport 
Solar-powered cold chain 
(fridges/hubs); PAYG/lease-to-


key: chroma:document
string_value:
high costs; vaccine 
quality risk during 
storage/transport 
Solar-powered cold chain 
(fridges/hubs); PAYG/lease-to-
own; multi-product cold chain; 
visible quality assurance 
practices 
Solar companies; 
cold-chain providers; 
Vet Pharma 
companies; 
distributors; agro -
vets; CAHWs/VPPs 
Transport & 
rural logistics 
High rural delivery 
costs; long travel times 
reduce vaccine 
viability; weak road 
access in priority 
states; limited rural 
distribution 
infrastructure 
Peri-urban/rural distribution 
hubs; route bundling (products 
+ services); logistics 
partnerships; last -mile 
bundling through CAHW/VPP 
networks 
Logistics firms; 
distributors; Vet 
Pharma companies; 
agro-vets; 
CAHWs/VPPs 
Extension, 
training & 
service 
quality 
Weak public extension 
coverage; limited rural


key: chroma:document
string_value:
agro-vets; 
CAHWs/VPPs 
Extension, 
training & 
service 
quality 
Weak public extension 
coverage; limited rural 
outreach; inadequate 
biological 
handling/diagnostic 
skills; limited 
business/customer 
skills; weak CPD 
channels 
Embedded advisory via 
CAHWs/VPPs; competency -
based training (cold chain, 
handling, diagnosis, AMU); 
digital/IVR/radio; business 
skills + service bundles 
State ADPs; VCN; 
vets; VPPs; CAHWs; 
INGOs 
Regulatory 
framework & 
institutional 
coordination 
Delays/costs in import 
approvals and drug 
registration; 
unclear/variable rules 
on who can vaccinate; 
weak quality 
enforcement; 
fragmented federal –
Streamline/digitise 
approvals/registration; clarify 
vaccination role frameworks; 
stronger enforcement against 
counterfeits; PPP routine


key: chroma:document
string_value:
approvals/registration; clarify 
vaccination role frameworks; 
stronger enforcement against 
counterfeits; PPP routine 
vaccination framework; state 
budget lines for routine 
vaccination 
NAFDAC; FMLD; 
Customs; Chief 
Veterinary Officer; 
State DVS/LGAs; 
VCN; Vet Pharma 
associations


key: chroma:document
string_value:
9 
 
state coordination; no 
unified routine 
vaccination framework 
Farmer 
demand & 
uptake 
Low awareness of 
schedules/benefits; 
treatment preferred 
over prevention; pack 
sizes misfit 
smallholders; 
misinformation/fear of 
side effects 
Behaviour change campaigns 
(radio/WhatsApp/community 
influencers); smaller pack sizes 
or vial -sharing protocols; 
women’s groups/coops as 
demand aggregators 
Smallholder farmers; 
aggregators/coops; 
community 
influencers 
Gender 
norms & 
access 
Women own/raise 
poultry but face access 
barriers to male 
vaccinators; 
mobility/cultural 
restrictions; low 
female CAHW 
presence 
Recruit/train female CAHWs; 
women-led outlets/teams; 
women-only sessions; 
community/religious leader 
engagement to build trust 
Women 
groups/coops;


key: chroma:document
string_value:
women-only sessions; 
community/religious leader 
engagement to build trust 
Women 
groups/coops; 
community leaders; 
female 
CAHWs/VPPs; 
INGOs 
 
 
4.3 Selected interventions 
Based on the system diagnosis, the portfolio selects three mutually reinforcing interventions: 
• 1.1 Scaling last-mile delivery of vaccines through the CAHW/VPP model. 
• 1.2 Increasing access to affordable poultry and livestock vaccine supply (including suitable SKUs 
and packaging). 
• 1.3 Strengthening institutional capacity for livestock disease prevention (surveillance, standards, 
PPP frameworks, and state systems).


key: chroma:document
string_value:
10 
 
5. Intervention Detail 
5.1 Intervention 1.1 – Scaling last -mile delivery of vaccines through the CAHW/VPP 
model 
Intervention 1.1 addresses the weak last -mile distribution and service delivery constraint that leaves 
smallholders underserved. In the original market model described in the strategy, veterinary 
pharmaceutical distributors largely serve commercial farms, while SHFs receive limited service 
coverage and rely on inefficient free vaccine delivery by government and NGOs. The intervention shifts 
the system toward a commercial, reliable model in which trained and supported CAHWs and VPPs 
deliver vaccines directly to SHFs, who pay for vaccines and services, creating sustainable incentives to 
expand coverage.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
expand coverage. 
The diagram below demonstrates the interconnected market of last mile delivery from VPDs to 
Agrovets and CAHWs.  
Figure 3: Interconnected Market Last Mile Delivery 
 
New intervention model and theory of change 
The new model positions CAHWs as last-mile service providers who source vaccines from distributors 
and deliver vaccination services to SHFs. Distributors supply vaccines to VPCs/VPDs and to CAHWs; 
NVRI continues as a producer , roughly 20% , while imports supplement shortfalls through a more 
formalised market. Regulatory and professional bodies (eg VCN) strengthen training and mapping of 
CAHWs. 
Propcom+ facilitation supports VPDs and CAHWs with business/technical training, supports VCN to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
CAHWs. 
Propcom+ facilitation supports VPDs and CAHWs with business/technical training, supports VCN to 
map CAHW networks, facilitates market linkages with importers and distributors, and supports NVRI 
to increase production. 
 
Market Vision A thriving rural animal health and vaccines market characterized by local commercial 
productions and distribution of suitable vaccines for smallholder farmers and routine 
vaccination against endemic diseases in states 
Theory of 
Change  
IF veterinary pharmaceutical companies strengthen weak last -mile delivery, low 
CAHW/VPP capacity, and create  commercial incentives and profitable delivery models, 
THEN CAHWs/VPPs will expand outreach, deliver better animal health services, boost


key: chroma:document
string_value:
THEN CAHWs/VPPs will expand outreach, deliver better animal health services, boost 
farmer productivity and incomes, reduce mortality, and drive sustainable scale.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
11 
 
Intervention 
Concept  
P+ intervention seeks to strengthen and commercially position CAHWs/VPPs within 
veterinary pharmaceutical business models so they can deliver reliable last-mile vaccination 
and advisory services to farmers. P+ provides  match making between CAWHs and VPDs, 
supports VPDs business model to train CAWHs and digital tech adoption,  and stimulate 
demand through marketing.  Ultimately creating a self -sustaining system where improved 
animal health, higher productivity, and increased vaccine uptake reinforce continu ed 
private-sector investment. 
Potential 
Partners 
Agriprojects concepts International (ACI), Green Pastures Konsult, Animal Care Limited, 
Ambuvet konsult, Thalakolo, NVRI, Turner-Wright 
Facilitation 
Activities


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Ambuvet konsult, Thalakolo, NVRI, Turner-Wright 
Facilitation 
Activities 
The programme will facilitate improved business models, blended training, practical 
incentives, digital tools, and farmer awareness efforts —all designed to enable vet 
pharmaceutical companies and CAHWs/VPPs to confidently take the lead in expanding 
last-mile vaccination services. 
Systemic 
Change 
Effective rural poultry and livestock vaccination systems, driven by veterinary 
pharmaceutical distributors increasing the number of last-mile agents (CAHWs, VPPs, etc.) 
profitably delivering vaccines and health products —supported by solar vehicles and 
storage—raise the share of farmers vaccinating birds and ruminants, and embed routine 
vaccination processes funded by the public sector


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vaccination processes funded by the public sector 
Phasing out P+ support for training after successful model.    
Timeframe 2023 - 2026 
Feasibility  The model is highly feasible because commercial incentives, existing community -based 
service providers, and strong farmer demand create a foundation for sustainable system 
change, with remaining risks around regulation, infrastructure, and quality manageab le 
through targeted facilitation and private-sector co-investment. 
Gender Most poultry and small ruminants are women -owned, kept free -range with low time and 
capital demands, women and persons with disabilities often act as service providers 
elsewhere, and poultry production thus offers pathways for women’s economic


key: chroma:document
string_value:
elsewhere, and poultry production thus offers pathways for women’s economic 
advancement, higher incomes, asset building, and empowerment (GeSI Report 2023 
Climate  Healthier animals are more productive and generate lower emissions per weight of product. 
Improving animal health reduces emission intensity and enhances resource use efficiency 
by reducing mortality, as well as improving productivity and fertility. Fewer animals are 
then needed to meet demands. 
 
4E scale framework 
Based on learning from Propcom Mai -Karfi and Propcom+, Intervention 1.1 now focuses on scaling 
the CAHW/VPP last -mile model using the 4E framework. Educate builds the evidence base and 
business case for firms and regulators; Engage supports second movers ( VPCs/VPDs and CAHW


key: chroma:document
string_value:
business case for firms and regulators; Engage supports second movers ( VPCs/VPDs and CAHW 
networks) to replicate and expand into new states; Evolve iterates the model (service basket, pack sizes, 
tech and women’s participation) to improve viability; and Establish embeds standards, legitimacy and 
regulatory acceptance so scale is sustained beyond programme support. 
Educate 
Propcom+ will package and share market insights, early success evidence, case studies, and private -
sector success stories to reduce uncertainty and build confidence among potential second movers. 
Learning and dissemination events will be held for VPDs and relevant stakeholders at state and national


key: chroma:document
string_value:
12 
 
levels, including manufacturer and importer engagement for credible “brand story” and quality 
messaging. 
Engage 
Propcom+ will actively support second movers to enter and adapt the CAHW/VPP model in new states 
and underserved LGAs, working with new companies and engaging current partners to expand to new 
geographies. Demonstrating success to relevant stakeholders will be used to build buy-in for scale and 
to sustain commercial incentives for VPDs and last-mile providers. 
Evolve 
The intervention model will be iterated based on learning, including business modelling to widen the 
‘basket’ of services for agrovets/CAHWs (eg chicks, feed, advisory), testing vial -size options better 
suited to CAHW operations, introducing and de -risking technology adoption where it improves


key: chroma:document
string_value:
suited to CAHW operations, introducing and de -risking technology adoption where it improves 
viability, and diagnosing barriers to female entry with targeted support measures. 
Establish 
Propcom+ will work with stakeholders to strengthen or reform rules, regulations, and social norms that 
affect legitimacy and scale of CAHW networks, including supporting formal networks/organisation of 
CAHWs and improved regulatory acceptance at state and federal levels. 
Scale ambition cited in the strategy for this pathway includes reaching 5,000 CAHW/VPPs at scale and 
serving 3,000,000+ farmers, with improved incomes through reduced livestock loss. 
5.2 Intervention 1.2 – Increasing access to affordable poultry and livestock vaccine supply


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5.2 Intervention 1.2 – Increasing access to affordable poultry and livestock vaccine supply 
Intervention 1.2 addresses the supply constraint in which local production is limited and suitable 
vaccines for SHFs are insufficient. The strategy highlights NVRI’s limited capacity and stock -outs of 
priority vaccines, forex-driven costs, long lead times and clearance delays, and weak forecasting caused 
by fragmented demand. These dynamics drive high prices, unreliable availability, and a reliance on 
grey-market imports. 
New intervention model and theory of change 
The intervention focuses on improving availability of suitable vaccines for SHFs through a combination 
of import diversification, improved packaging and SKU suitability, and stronger coordination between


key: chroma:document
string_value:
of import diversification, improved packaging and SKU suitability, and stronger coordination between 
veterinary pharmaceutical companies and state governments. The strategy describes a pathway in which 
vet pharmaceutical companies import, blend and package vaccines suited to SHFs, collaborate with 
states on statewide vaccination and awareness creation, and work with distributors and CAHWs to 
expand rural access.  
The diagram below demonstrates the interconnected market of vaccine production and supply. 
Figure 4:Interconnected Market Vaccine Production


key: chroma:document
string_value:
13 
 
 
Market 
Vision 
A thriving rural animal health and vaccines market characterized by local commercial 
productions and distribution of suitable vaccines for smallholder farmers and routine 
vaccination against endemic diseases in states 
  Theory of 
Change 
IF supply side production and availability of affordable vaccines are addressed through 
targeted investments and new distribution partnerships, and if rural veterinary service 
providers are equipped and incentivized to stock and administer vaccines, THEN th e 
availability and accessibility of quality poultry and livestock vaccines in rural areas will 
increase. This will lead to higher vaccine uptake among smallholder farmers, reduced 
disease incidence, improved livestock productivity, thereby enabling veterin ary


key: chroma:document
string_value:
disease incidence, improved livestock productivity, thereby enabling veterin ary 
pharmaceutical distribution companies to thrive and overall enhance income and resilience 
for households and SHF 
Intervention 
Concept  
The intervention model focuses on enabling private -sector distributors, veterinary 
manufacturers (local and international), importers, wholesalers, to increase affordable 
vaccines supply, which enables agro -dealers and community animal health workers 
(CAHWs) to improve vaccine reach and farmer uptake.  Activities focus on: 
• Strengthening the market knowledge,  distribution and business case for importers 
and distributors to service the growing vaccine market. 
• Upgrading the distribution network through partnerships with wholesalers and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Upgrading the distribution network through partnerships with wholesalers and 
agro-dealers to expand penetration into underserved rural markets.  
• Increasing local production through target support to NVRI in equipment 
procurement and installation.  
• Improve uptake of thermo tolerant vaccines better suited to Nigerian market.  
• Facilitating state -level collaboration for improved regulatory compliance, 
harmonized vaccination schedules, and supportive policies.  
Together, these actions aim to build a commercially viable, inclusive, and climate -smart 
vaccine delivery system capable of serving millions of smallholders. 
Potential 
Partners 
The intervention engages a wide range of actors:  
Veterinary vaccine manufacturers and importers whose function is to strengthen supply


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Veterinary vaccine manufacturers and importers whose function is to strengthen supply 
availability and planning.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
14 
 
Distributors/wholesalers whose function is to expand product flow and open new rural 
channels.  
Agro-dealers/retailers whose function is to act as crucial access points for vaccines and 
smallholder advisory services.  
CAHWs/VPPs whose function is to deliver vaccination and frontline care, particularly in 
hard-to-reach communities.  
State Veterinary Services whose function is to enhance coordination, disease surveillance, 
and supportive regulation.  
Smallholder poultry and livestock farmers whose function is to act as the end users who 
benefit from increased access and reduced disease burden. 
Facilitation 
Activities 
Facilitation activities will focus on providing market information to importers and linking


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Facilitation 
Activities 
Facilitation activities will focus on providing market information to importers and linking 
to distributors, providing market linkages to VPDs, Agrovets and CAHWs.  
Systemic 
Change 
Systemic change will be achieved through addressing the demand gap with improved 
supply, of both imported and locally produced vaccines. Successful distribution, delivery 
and uptake through intervention 1.1, will demonstrate and profitable market model. A 
model which can be scaled to further states. 
Timeframe  2023- 2026 
Feasibility  The feasibility of the intervention has been improved through broadening support beyond 
NVRI focus, to include imported vaccines and distributors. There is a serviceable market 
valued at +$200m per year and growing.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
valued at +$200m per year and growing.  
Gender Women often play key roles in livestock management and ownership particularly in 
smallholder and subsistence farming system, and access to vaccines and animal health 
products directly benefits women by improving livestock productivity and overall 
household income. 
Climate  Livestock health is closely linked to climate resilience. Healthy animals are more 
productive, require fewer resources and emit fewer greenhouse gases (GHG) per unit 
output. 
 
4E scale framework 
Educate 
Propcom+ will build shared understanding of vaccine demand, suitable vaccine specifications 
(including pack sizes and thermostable needs), and the business case for SHF-oriented supply. Evidence


key: chroma:document
string_value:
(including pack sizes and thermostable needs), and the business case for SHF-oriented supply. Evidence 
from pilots and early movers will be translated into practica l guidance for importers, distributors, and 
state counterparts. 
Engage 
Propcom+ will facilitate collaboration between vet-pharm companies, distributors, CAHWs/VPPs, and 
state governments to align supply plans with vaccination campaigns and awareness creation, and to 
strengthen incentives for firms to serve rural markets. 
Evolve 
The programme will support iteration on packaging, blending/fill -finish options, demand forecasting, 
and distribution models that reduce costs and increase rural reach. Where appropriate, it will support


key: chroma:document
string_value:
15 
 
introduction of complementary technologies that improve viability of rural distribution and service 
delivery. 
Establish 
Propcom+ will support improvements in enabling conditions that affect supply, including import 
processes, quality assurance, and investment pathways for local production or modular fill -finish 
approaches, consistent with Nigeria’s biosecurity stance and relevant regulations. 
5.3 Intervention 1.3 – Strengthening institutional capacity for livestock disease 
prevention 
Intervention 1.3 strengthens the rules, and coordination mechanisms  that underpin a 
functioning animal health and vaccination system. In the current system, weak surveillance and 
reporting, inconsistent enforcement of standards, fragmented roles across institutions, and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
reporting, inconsistent enforcement of standards, fragmented roles across institutions, and 
inadequate financing for routine prevention reduce c onfidence and investment across the 
market. These constraints also limit the scalability and sustainability of Interventions 1.1 and 
1.2: last -mile providers struggle without reliable plann ing data and recognised standards; 
distributors and importers struggle without predictable rules and credible demand signals; and 
states struggle to move from ad hoc campaigns to routine prevention. 
The intervention therefore focuses on building a more reliable system for disease prevention: 
better data , clearer standards , stronger accountability , and institutionalised public –private


key: chroma:document
string_value:
better data , clearer standards , stronger accountability , and institutionalised public –private 
arrangements that make routine vaccination feasible and commercial. As these functions 
strengthen, private actors gain confidence to invest and scale, states gain a practical mechanism 
to deliver routine vaccination, and smallholders benefit from lower disease inciden ce and 
improved service access. 
Figure 5: Diagram of 1.3 Intervention Areas 
 
Intervention area 1 — Disease surveillance, reporting, and planning intelligence 
A functioning vaccine market relies on credible information: where disease risk is highest, 
what coverage exists, where outbreaks occur, and what vaccine volumes are required. This


key: chroma:document
string_value:
what coverage exists, where outbreaks occur, and what vaccine volumes are required. This 
intervention strengthens surveillance and reporting capacity by improving d ata systems 
(including upgrades to NADIS where relevant), clarifying reporting lines, mapping 
surveillance units, and supporting practical tools for field reporting and aggregation (e.g., 
mobile reporting, GIS-enabled mapping, standardised forms and dashboards). The objective is


key: chroma:document
string_value:
16 
 
actionable intelligence  that drives better targeting, procurement, distribution planning, and 
outbreak response; reducing uncertainty for both public and private actors. 
Intervention area 2 — Standards, accreditation, and legitimacy for CAHW/VPP service delivery 
Scaling last -mile vaccination depends on paraprofessionals being recognised, trusted, and 
accountable. Weak or inconsistent standards increase reputational risks, create space for poor 
practice, and can trigger regulatory pushback that limits scale. This intervention strengthens 
the institutional framework for CAHW/VPP models by supporting clearer minimum standards 
(SOPs, quality assurance protocols, supervision and mentoring arrangements), strengthening


key: chroma:document
string_value:
(SOPs, quality assurance protocols, supervision and mentoring arrangements), strengthening 
mapping and oversight mechanisms, and aligning traini ng curricula with accepted pathways 
(e.g., NBTE -recognised curriculum and VCN licensing/recognition where applicable). By 
increasing legitimacy and quality assurance, the intervention makes it easier for states, 
distributors, and communities to adopt and support the CAHW/VPP model as a normal part of 
the animal health system. 
Intervention area 3a — Public financing and accountability for routine vaccination 
Routine vaccination requires predictable financing. Where states underfund prevention, 
systems default to episodic campaigns and reactive responses, creating volatility in demand


key: chroma:document
string_value:
systems default to episodic campaigns and reactive responses, creating volatility in demand 
and weak incentives for private investment in supply and distribution. This i ntervention 
strengthens the political economy and accountability environment for prevention by supporting 
evidence-led advocacy (health and economic case), practical budget framing, and mechanisms 
that improve visibility and follow-through on allocations for routine vaccination, surveillance, 
and delivery costs. The goal is to shift prevention from a discretionary expense to an 
operational norm within state animal health responsibilities, with clearer accountability for 
coverage and performance. 
Intervention area 3b — Institutionalising PPP frameworks for routine vaccination


key: chroma:document
string_value:
coverage and performance. 
Intervention area 3b — Institutionalising PPP frameworks for routine vaccination 
Intervention 1.3 enables the transition from ad hoc public delivery to structured public–private 
delivery models  that can scale. It supports the development and adoption of a nationally 
credible PPP framework for routine vaccination and supports states to operationalise PPP 
agreements. This includes clarifying roles (state DVS, NVRI, distributors, CAHW/VPP 
networks), aligning incentives (payment terms, coverage expectations, quality assurance), and 
creating templates/approaches that states can replicate. The purpose is to create a repeatable 
model where private distribution and last -mile service delivery can compleme nt state


key: chroma:document
string_value:
model where private distribution and last -mile service delivery can compleme nt state 
mandates—without distorting the market or displacing commercial incentives. 
Intervention area 4 — Regulatory coherence for quality and importation (enabling environment) 
Where regulatory pathways for vaccine importation, quality assurance, and distribution are 
unclear or inconsistently enforced, private actors face higher costs and risk—while counterfeit 
and grey -market activity becomes more attractive. This intervention s upports greater 
regulatory coherence by convening relevant agencies and stakeholders to clarify compliance 
expectations, improve predictability of processes, and strengthen quality assurance norms. The


key: chroma:document
string_value:
expectations, improve predictability of processes, and strengthen quality assurance norms. The 
aim is a market that is easier to enter responsibly and harder to undermine through low-quality 
supply, thereby protecting farmer trust and safeguarding vaccination outcomes.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
17 
 
How Intervention 1.3 reinforces Interventions 1.1 and 1.2 
This intervention acts as the system enabler. Stronger surveillance and planning data improves 
supply forecasting and distribution decisions (1.2). Clear paraprofessional standards and 
legitimacy support safe scale of CAHW/VPP models (1.1). Predictable financing and PPP 
frameworks create stable demand signals and delivery partnerships that reduce uncertainty and 
attract investment (1.2), while ensuring last-mile delivery remains viable (1.1). Together, these 
changes reduce reliance on free, irregular campaigns and shift the market toward routine. 
Intervention 1.3 addresses governance and institutional failures that prevent routine vaccination and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention 1.3 addresses governance and institutional failures that prevent routine vaccination and 
effective disease control. The strategy highlights systemic breakdown of disease surveillance and 
reporting, weak implementation of disease control strate gies, underfunded routine vaccination 
programmes, and limited standards for paraprofessional service provision. These constraints undermine 
both public and private incentives to invest and scale. 
The intervention strengthens market governance by improving disease reporting and surveillance, 
advocating for increased budget allocation for routine vaccination and animal health system 
strengthening, and institutionalising public-private partnerships for routine vaccination.  
6. Results


key: chroma:document
string_value:
strengthening, and institutionalising public-private partnerships for routine vaccination.  
6. Results 
The portfolio’s results are expressed through headline targets and a results chain focused on vaccine 
distribution, routine vaccination, and improved farmer resilience. At portfolio level, the end -of-year 3 
impact estimates include: a nationally adopted PPP framework for routine vaccination; PPP agreements 
with three states; and two investment deals brokered for NVRI and other veterinary companies. These 
results are expected to translate into improved vaccine availability, stronger last-mile service delivery, 
reduced disease incidence, and improved resilience for rural farmers (including women and other 
excluded groups). 
6.1 Headline portfolio targets (Year 3)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
excluded groups). 
6.1 Headline portfolio targets (Year 3) 
• 15 veterinary pharmaceutical companies supported. 
• 300,000 vaccine vials distributed as a direct result of programme support. 
• 1,500 CAHWs and VPPs trained and active (20–30% women). 
• 2 investment deals brokered for NVRI and other veterinary companies. 
• 1 nationally adopted PPP framework for routine vaccination. 
• 3 PPP agreements with states on routine vaccination. 
• 500,000 farmers (60% women) with enhanced resilience.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
18 
 
 
6.2 Value for money  
Propcom+ builds value-for-money metrics using assumptions from the Propcom Mai-Karfi programme, 
with a planned scale -down of Propcom+ investment over time as veterinary companies (supported 
through financial institutions) meet the financial needs of scaling.  
Indicator Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 
Total operational costs /total costs    - £40,885 £110,005 £60,000 
Cost per farmer reached    - £0.41 £0.37 £0.30 
% of farmers reached who are 
female 
   - 60 60 60 
Private sector investment leveraged     - £165,474 £242,129 £250,000 
 
6.3 Systemic theory of change 
The Systemic Theory of Change articulates how Propcom+ moves beyond activities (i.e. facilitative


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The Systemic Theory of Change articulates how Propcom+ moves beyond activities (i.e. facilitative 
activities—such as partnership agreements, institutional strengthening) to market systems (i.e. private-
sector behaviour). These triggers lead to expanded distribution, improved service delivery, and greater 
farmer uptake of vaccines and animal health services. 
 
The SToC demonstrates how sustained reductions in disease outbreaks and improvements in rural 
incomes are achieved through changes in incentives, institutions, and market relationships rather than 
one-off project delivery. 
 
Full Systemic Theory of Change is available here: Livestock and Animal Health SToC


key: chroma:document
string_value:
19 
 
 
 
 
Figure 6: Visualisation of SToC 
 
Each intervention is managed by Intervention Guide with supporting Results Chains, available here; 
• 1.1 Strengthening last-mile access through replicating and scaling the CAHW/VPP model. 
• 1.2 Increasing access to affordable poultry/livestock vaccine supply. 
• 1.3 Strengthening institutional capacity for livestock disease prevention  (surveillance, 
reporting, budgets, standards, PPP framework).


key: source
string_value:
/Users/olusojiapampa/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/Documents/Proposals/PropCom/PropCom+/propcom-rrca/data/corpus/20_intervention_B_climate_smart_seeds/Portfolio Strategy- Climate Smart Seed intervention deck 030326.pdf


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Portfolio Overview
Vision for the seeds market To catalyse a commercially driven, inclusive and climate -resilient seed market in which private 
seed companies profitably multiply and distribute high -quality climate-smart and biofortified 
varieties; smallholder farmers reliably access and adopt adapted seeds through sustainable 
last-mile channels and increase incomes. Quality assurance and governance systems are 
trusted and enforced; and financial institutions provide tailored products that enable continuous 
investment across the seed value chain.
Number of interventions 2.1 Increase certified CS seeds availability through scaling of community seed multiplication 
(CSM) model
2.2 Promote adoption and utilization of certified CS seeds by scaling rural seed promoter 
(RSP) model.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
(CSM) model
2.2 Promote adoption and utilization of certified CS seeds by scaling rural seed promoter 
(RSP) model.
2.3 Strengthen the regulatory environment for seed certification by strengthening key industry 
bodies e.g., National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC)
Potential partners • Noman Zamani, Girmal, Tecni seeds, Value seed, Premier seeds, Seed Project Co, 
AgriSeed Co, Asma’u Memorial Farms
• Regulatory agencies, State Governments
Projected impact (By Year 3) 10 seed companies supported; 10,000MT of seed produced annually; 10,000 seed producers 
engaged annually, 500 RSPs activated;  200,000 farmers benefitted


key: chroma:document
string_value:
01 Background
02
Problem and Market 
System Analysis03
Previous Interventions, 
Lessons and Opportunities
04 Proposed Interventions
05
Systemic Theory of 
Change, Results & 
Measurement
Outline


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Background - Relevance of the Seed subsector    1/2
- Crop production makes the most contribution to agricultural GDP (19% of 
agricultural GDP) and accounts for 87% of the agricultural sector’s total 
output (PWC). 
- The availability of high quality locally adapted seed varieties considered the 
most important requirement for crop production – contributes 50% to crop 
yields (NAERLS):
- The Nigerian seed sector is valued at  £767M,  yet demand far outstrips 
supply (>70% supply gap)
- 5 -
With high yielding varieties, and cultivars selected to better adapt to the changing local climates, seeds are 
therefore an important technology for transferring these adaptive capacities to farmers.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
therefore an important technology for transferring these adaptive capacities to farmers. 
- Access to and use of adapted seeds offers farmers an affordable means of increasing yields as well improve 
the efficiency and effectiveness of other inputs – e.g agrochemicals, fertilizers, and mechanization. Seeds 
sets the limits to which all other agricultural inputs can contribute to crop productions.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
With the impending climate change threats to food 
systems, Effective seed systems, enabling access to 
improved locally adapted planting materials 
underpins crop adaptation. 
o Nigeria has been a net food importer —and the 
agricultural trade deficit has widened with imports 
exceeding exports by N2.29 trillion in 2021 compared 
to N1.42trillion in 2020.
o In 2023, with rising food prices, about 28% of Nigerians 
are reportedly food insecure 
o Measures to improve food security includes higher crop 
yields, and closely linked to that is the adoption of high 
yielding locally adapted seed varieties(>6.5T/ha), along with 
low food inflation rates (<5%) and a drop in the share of 
food imports (est. 10%) (IMF). 
o The cost of agricultural production greatly impacted by climate


key: chroma:document
string_value:
food imports (est. 10%) (IMF). 
o The cost of agricultural production greatly impacted by climate 
change due to reliance on rain-fed production.
o Accelerating climate change puts pressure on agricultural 
production and food systems:
• Biotic stress (increased pest, pathogens and 
resistance to existing control measures), 
• Water and temperature stress; with varied sensitivity 
across different crops, leading to higher crop failure
…Relevance to food security and changing climate
- 6 -
Food security and NutritionClimate change
Conflict: Unsustainable land management practices, 
compounded by poor use of inputs (seeds) impacts on livestock 
systems and soil management, resulting in increased migration, 
encroachment, and recurring conflict.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
systems and soil management, resulting in increased migration, 
encroachment, and recurring conflict.
Gender and social inclusion: Access to quality climate adapted 
varieties with the right education, can significantly improve women’s 
productivity and resilience. Where gender-related barriers are 
addressed, women prove to be good agents of behaviour change for 
climate messaging


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Proven Models for Scaling Climate Smart Varieties
- 8 -
In the model, Seed companies empowers smallholder farmers as out-growers to produce high-yielding, locally 
preferred improved crop varieties; at harvest, seed companies do a buy-back, giving farmers a premium for 
participating, and out-growers sell surplus to other farmers within their community, thereby boosting local 
availability, opening avenues for SHFs to start seed-trading businesses, and offering farmers a 'basket' of crop 
varieties to utilize.
The Propcom Mai-Karfi (PM) program had previously demonstrated the effectiveness of the "community seed 
multiplication" model which significantly increased the supply of seeds suitable for the local climate. During PM’s


key: chroma:document
string_value:
multiplication" model which significantly increased the supply of seeds suitable for the local climate. During PM’s 
implementation, the program worked with Tecni Seeds & and Girmal Seeds to increase their out-growers from 
155 to 305 resulting in the increase in production from 650 metric tons of seeds to over 1,220 metric tons of 
seeds in one farming season. This improved the availability of adapted seed varieties and incomes for seed 
companies, out-growers and SHFs.
Community Seed 
Multiplication 
(CSM)
1
Rural Seed 
Promoters Model 
(RSPs)
2
The rural seed promoter model tackles the issue of limited access to improved seeds for farmers residing in 
rural areas. This model enables micro-entrepreneurs within these communities to act as intermediaries by


key: chroma:document
string_value:
rural areas. This model enables micro-entrepreneurs within these communities to act as intermediaries by 
purchasing seeds from major seed distributors and selling them directly to farmers. 
In the previous Propcom Mai-Karfi program, this model successfully addressed the issue of last mile distribution, 
extension services, and quality-assured inputs. This channel of distribution in the heart of rural communities 
created access for farmers and confidence that the products were not adulterated or fake and were available in 
time for the planting season. PM piloted with RSP model with Premier Seeds in 5 states, and on their own, 
Premier Seeds scaled up to 20 more states. TecniSeeds also leveraged existing RSP network to expand their 
seed sales in Kano, Bauchi, Yobe and Gombe.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Past efforts to address the constraints, lessons and opportunities…1/2
- 9 -
Market Failures Past efforts Lessons Opportunity/value add for P+
Finance 
 PM provided a cost-share grant to two seed 
companies for community seed multiplication, 
significantly boosting seed availability. 
However, limited time hindered the generation 
of evidence to encourage MFIs to develop a 
loan product.
A few other donor Programmes have invested 
in financing seed multiplication – USAID FTF , 
WFP , GAIN, but at small scale
Seed companies produce based on their risk appetite and 
financial capacity. Financial institutions often have a 
limited understanding of opportunities in seed 
multiplication.
Unlock financing for 
expanding community seed 
multiplication. This will be 
anchored on the approach


key: chroma:document
string_value:
multiplication.
Unlock financing for 
expanding community seed 
multiplication. This will be 
anchored on the approach 
to driving community seed 
multiplication
Supply
 PM partnered with T ecniseed and GIRMAL 
Seeds for community seed multiplication, 
involving farmers as out-growers. This 
significantly increased the availability of locally 
adapted varieties across the NE and NW 
States of Nigeria
Increasing the supply of adapted varieties requires 
investing in community seed multiplication and advocating 
for financial institution support.
Seed companies have limited out-growers due to 
financing constraints. Effective demand will influence them 
to expand.
Engage market actors to 
improve supply climate 
adapted seed varieties to 
farmers. 
Distribution


key: chroma:document
string_value:
to expand.
Engage market actors to 
improve supply climate 
adapted seed varieties to 
farmers. 
Distribution
 PM successfully tested a rural seed promoters 
(RSPs) model with three seed companies, 
creating a network of trained promoters 
aligned with them.
HarvestPlus is involved on a smaller scale, 
collaborating with Premier Seeds.
The RSP model is efficient in reaching the last mile and 
can be scaled up with other seed companies and across 
regions. 
The model benefits all stakeholders -  offering better yields 
for smallholders, access to new markets for seed 
companies, and margins for RSPs.
Scale up the RSP model to 
strengthen last mile 
distribution and extension


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Past efforts to address the constraints, lessons and opportunities … 2/2
- 10 -
Governance 
Failures
Past efforts Lessons Opportunity/value add for P+
Capacity 
(institutional 
capacity)
PM has previously supported NASC in 
reviewing the seed policy and strengthening 
state structures for seed certification and 
post-market surveillance.
A huge gap exists in the state’s capacity to regulate and enforce seed 
quality. This affects farmers' confidence, reduces demand, and makes 
private sector actors perceive it as a risky investment.
Strengthen institutional capacity 
for QC and enforcement to 
ensure seed quality for 
smallholders and market 
stability for investors
Policy, Business 
Environment
Ukaid, through PM and other programmes, 
supported the review of the Seed Act. The


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Policy, Business 
Environment
Ukaid, through PM and other programmes, 
supported the review of the Seed Act. The 
Netherlands government is now collaborating 
to develop the seed sector, starting with the 
National Seed Road Map (NSRM) as a policy 
guide.
HarvestPlus, alongside research institutions, 
have been involved in the research and 
release of new varieties, especially 
biofortified crops, engaging with government 
and private seed companies.
Reforms are necessary to scale seed production by agribusiness for 
farmers, but this aspect is covered by other programmes.
The sector shows progress with policy updates; the amendments to the 
Seed Act boosted private sector involvement, doubling the number of 
registered seed companies to 177 in 2021 from 2019.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
registered seed companies to 177 in 2021 from 2019. 
Current seed breeding and varietal release policies, however, deter 
private sector investment, hampering seed availability. More reforms 
are needed.
HarvestPlus is uniquely 
positioned to drive this effort 
given their involvement in 
varietal release. 
Also, the government of the 
Netherlands is quite invested in 
this area through the NSRM 
policy. 
In view, the Programme will engage 
through other capacity building and 
advocacy entry points. 
Weak policy 
implementation/coo
rdination
The federal government implemented the 
Growth Enhancement Scheme (GES), a PPP 
model aimed at catalyzing markets for seeds 
and other inputs through subsidies.
Donors and implementing partners like GAIN, 
WFP and others continue to fund the free


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Donors and implementing partners like GAIN, 
WFP and others continue to fund the free 
distribution of seeds
PM previously advocated for a segmentation 
and targeted approach to subsidies, and 
played a role in shaping the GES to minimize 
distortions, creating room for catalyzing 
markets through subsidies.
Policy implementation and coordination, especially at the state level is 
crucial to attract increased investments from seed companies.  
The newly established Seeds Codex verifies seed authenticity, but its 
practical utilization and impact on countering counterfeit seeds are 
unclear.
Current subsidy policies and trade protection measures are ineffective, 
primarily due to poor segmentation, targeting, and inadequate planning.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
primarily due to poor segmentation, targeting, and inadequate planning.
Subsidies at the state level are becoming increasingly crucial amid 
recent shocks and rising household poverty. However, they require 
better coordination with market actors for smarter utilization. 
P+ will need to drive such advocacy in targeted states. 
Evidence-based advocacy to drive 
coordination, effective targeting, and 
policy implementation


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Less than 15% of Nigerian farmers use climate-smart seeds, 
contributing to reduced productivity, yield levels, and limited access to 
nutrition.
Poor adoption rates of high-yielding seed varieties are evident in the 
productivity gap of most staple crops in Nigeria. 
This places additional strain on the environment as farmers may resort to 
unsustainable practices such as deforestation or clearing marginal lands to 
compensate for lower yields.
Reduced agricultural productivity negatively impacts market growth, access to the 
premium/export market, employment, and overall economic growth.
Farmers are on the front line of climate change, and increasingly 
vulnerable to the changing and unpredictable climate.
Most SHFs can only cultivate their crops during the rainy season because only 1%


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Most SHFs can only cultivate their crops during the rainy season because only 1% 
of cropland is irrigated(IFPRI). Farmers continue to lose the ability to depend on 
obsolete techniques as rainfall becomes increasingly erratic.
Poor rural women and men depend on agriculture. Around 70% of rural people are 
smallholder farmers who rely on rainfall to cultivate unirrigated plots. These 
farmers produce nearly 90% of Nigeria's food.
Comparative average yields of Nigeria’s most common 
seed crops (FAO)
- 12 -
The Problem
2021 Yield values (tonnes/ha)
Crop Nigeria World
Groundnut 1.20 2.40
Maize 2.50 4.50
Rice paddy 1.70 4.00
Seed cotton 0.23 1.50
Sorghum 1.23 1.45
https://www.ifpri.org/blog/cultivating-growth-nigerian-agriculture-small-scale-irrigation


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Sorghum 1.23 1.45
https://www.ifpri.org/blog/cultivating-growth-nigerian-agriculture-small-scale-irrigation
https://ijecm.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/9423.pdf
https://www.ifad.org/sv/web/operations/w/country/nigeria


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Farmers trust 
FMLD
Drug & Vaccine 
Import regulation   
Environmental 
protection
Climate Smart Seeds Market
Support functions 
/rules
Definitions
Seed Multiplication Process of producing genetically pure and high-quality seeds from breeder or foundation seed to 
generate sufficient certified seed for commercial distribution to farmers.
Financial services Access to loans from commercial banks and micro finance institutions (MFIs) or equity/impact 
investment
Research and 
Breeding (EGS)
Access to breeders and foundation for multiplication by seed companies and seed producers. RI are 
mandated for development of specific crop varieties, breeding, research, sales of breeders and 
foundation seeds
Input supplies 
(Fertilizer and CPP)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
foundation seeds
Input supplies 
(Fertilizer and CPP)
Provide other inputs used in crop production, this includes organic and inorganic fertilizers and 
pesticides
Mechanization 
Services
Farm operation mechanizations, this could range from simplified planters to more sophisticated 
equipment like tractors, Irrigation systems etc
Distribution/
marketing
Logistics for aggregating from seed producers to processing factories and distribution of finished 
products to sales outlets. Demand creation through various marketing channels such as market 
storms, radio jingles, E-commerce
Market Information This includes all facts, estimates, and opinions that influence the marketing of seed
Regulations FMAFS, NASC, NVRC: Responsible for regulatory environment, seed companies' certification, quality


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Regulations FMAFS, NASC, NVRC: Responsible for regulatory environment, seed companies' certification, quality 
control, governance of seed sector and release of new varieties
Research Institute Mandated for development of specific crop varieties, breeding, research, sales of breeders and 
foundation seeds
Import Rules Nigerian Agricultural Quarantine Service (NAQS), overseeing seed importation and biosafety 
Gender Norms Gender norms limit women’s access to land, inputs, credit, extension services, and market 
opportunities, while domestic workloads further constrain participation in the seed system
Farmers Practices
Seed 
Companies Farmers
Extension 
Services
Input supplies 
(fertilizer, CPP)
Financial 
Services
Research and 
Breeding (EGS)
Distribution/
Marketing Mechanization 
Services


key: chroma:document
string_value:
(fertilizer, CPP)
Financial 
Services
Research and 
Breeding (EGS)
Distribution/
Marketing Mechanization 
Services
Seed 
Multiplication
Regulatory 
Environment
Gender Norms
Market 
Information
Supporting Functions
Rules and Norms
Import Rules and 
regulations
Farmers Practices
Quality Control


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Inadequate PPP 
for seed 
production
Seed Sector analysis 
Causes of sector underperformance
Poor access to, 
and use of quality
 climate adapted 
seed varieties 
Limited production and supply 
of CS seed varieties Slow varietal release due to onerous 
4years testing requirements
Weak human and financial capacity 
to implement seed policies Inadequate resourcing of quality control 
measures & enforcement of regulation
Weak rural distribution network 
Resulting in…
Continued use of poor-
quality planting materials, 
recycling of grains for 
seed and drop in yield
High vulnerability to erratic 
weather conditions and 
emerging diseases
Crop failure, loss of 
harvest, persistent poverty
Poor dietary intake & high 
malnutrition levels
Public institutions have the sole right 
to seed release


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Poor dietary intake & high 
malnutrition levels
Public institutions have the sole right 
to seed release
Underfunding of research 
for new varieties
Trade protection measures limits 
seed availability
Govt. focus on supply of subsidized 
seeds displacing private sector, eroding 
market structures
Surveillance inefficiency – collusion between 
seed Coys. & Inspectors promoting 
proliferation of poor-quality seeds
Governance failureMarket failure
Fis’ limited  
understanding of the 
financing needs & ROI 
for seed production 
and marketing
Limited knowledge on the availability and 
benefits of using CS varieties
Limited capital to scale 
production/seed multiplication
No suitable financing 
products for seed SMEs, 
and SMEs and SHF are 
perceived as high risk


key: chroma:document
string_value:
No suitable financing 
products for seed SMEs, 
and SMEs and SHF are 
perceived as high risk
High logistics costs, poor infrastructure for 
reaching rural farmers with seeds 
Risk in investment from climate & security
Farmers distrust in 
the quality of seeds in 
circulation
Inadequate extension services 
Farmers lack information 
on climate appropriate 
selection & upkeep of 
seeds 
Limited access to premium market seeking high quality grains 
Existing policy 
stifle private seed 
breeders
Finance Supply Distribution Information/extension Capacity Policy/Business Environment Weak Policy implementation/coordination


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Market actors & linkages
End users
Core Market
Large and small holder farmers 
NASC Regulates 
NAQs
Seed Companies  
Distribution 
Input Supply
Main actors
Secondary actors
Community Based Seed 
Producers
NGOs Major Input 
Distributors
Agro-dealers
Research Institute/Licenced 
EGS Private Companies
+80
+5000
+15
+4000
+100m
Market Size Est. in 
active states
Fed/State/Local 
Governments 
Actor Map of Climate Smart Seed Market
RSPs 
+250
+1000
+12
Informal Seed 
Sector
+80% 
MS
Fertilizer , CPP & 
Mechanization  
Seed 
Outgrowers
+10k


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Standards
Core Constraints Opportunities Actors
Seed Supply • Weak rural distribution network 
• High logistics costs, poor 
infrastructure for reaching rural 
farmers with seeds 
• Weak rural distribution network
• Low capacity to produce enough 
seeds
• Lack sufficient infrastructure for seed 
production and processing
• Low farmers demand
• Development of rural distributor/agent networks, creating jobs and 
expanding last-mile reach.
• Local seed production expansion through contract farming with 
outgrowers.
• Establishment of seed processing facility closer to the farmers
• Digital demand-generation platforms to educate farmers and stimulate 
adoption of improved seeds.
• Public–private partnerships to improve rural infrastructure and 
strengthen supply chains.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Public–private partnerships to improve rural infrastructure and 
strengthen supply chains.
• Mechanization and automation in seed production to improve capacity 
and reduce costs.
• Bundling seeds with inputs/credit/advisory to drive farmer demand 
and increase uptake.
Seed Companies 
(National and Regional), 
Community Based Seed 
Producers
Seed Demand • Unavailability of seeds at the last mile, 
farmers travel long distance to access 
seeds.
• High cost of certified seeds when 
compared to the informal seeds
• Limited knowledge on the availability 
and benefits of using CS varieties
• Farmers distrust in the quality of 
seeds in circulation
• Last-mile seed agent networks (Rural Seed Promoters) to bring seeds 
closer to farmers.
• Affordable seed pricing models such as mini-packs


key: chroma:document
string_value:
closer to farmers.
• Affordable seed pricing models such as mini-packs
• Targeted farmer education programs (demo plots, radio campaigns, 
mobile advisory) to raise awareness of certified seed benefits.
• Partnerships with cooperatives to aggregate demand and reduce 
farmer travel distance.
• Community-based seed multiplication to improve supply and reduce 
cost at rural level.
Large Scale Farmers, 
Smallholder farmers, 
farmers cooperative
Constraint and Opportunities in Climate Smart Seeds


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Standards
Support  
Functions / Rules
Constraints Opportunities Actors
Finance • No suitable financing products for seed SMEs, and 
SMEs and SHF are perceived as high risk.
• Fis’ limited  understanding of the financing needs 
& ROI for seed production and marketing
• High perceived risk of seed production cycles by 
FIs
• Limited performance data to assess risk
• No collateralizable asset base for seed SMEs
• Weather variability increasing repayment risk
• Creating access to blended finance to help seed companies scale 
production and multiplication.
• Design of tailored financial products (inventory financing, input credit 
lines, working-capital loans) suited to seed SMEs’ production cycles.
• Risk-sharing facilities and credit guarantees to reduce perceived risk


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Risk-sharing facilities and credit guarantees to reduce perceived risk 
for financial institutions.
• Use of contract-farming structures to improve loan recovery and 
increase lender confidence.
• Build yield/ROI evidence base to de-risk FI entry
• Embed seed companies into seed financing
Commercial banks, 
Micro-finance banks, 
DFIs
Extension • Limited knowledge on the availability and benefits 
of using CS varieties
• Inadequate public extension services
• Few extension service providers 
• Digital extension platforms (SMS, WhatsApp, IVR, radio) to rapidly 
scale farmer awareness on CS varieties.
• Private-sector–led extension models using agro-dealers, youth 
agri-agents, RSPs and lead farmers to fill gaps.
• Training-of-trainers programs to expand the pool of local extension


key: chroma:document
string_value:
agri-agents, RSPs and lead farmers to fill gaps.
• Training-of-trainers programs to expand the pool of local extension 
service providers.
• Demo plots and field days to showcase the benefits of certified seed 
varieties and drive adoption.
Government 
extension agents, 
private extension 
providers, agents, 
media
Distribution 
and 
Marketing
• Poor distribution network for seed
• Limited marketing activities by seed companies
• Develop last-mile Rural Seed Promoters (RSP) and agro-dealer to 
strengthen seed distribution and improve rural availability.
• Leverage digital marketplaces and mobile ordering systems to expand 
reach without heavy physical infrastructure.
• Investment in brand visibility through demos, radio campaigns, local 
fairs, and farmer-field days.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Investment in brand visibility through demos, radio campaigns, local 
fairs, and farmer-field days.
• Use of smaller-packaging and promotional bundles to stimulate 
farmer interest and trial
Media, agro-dealers, 
agents, e-commerce, 
retailers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Standards
Support Functions 
 Rules
Constraints Opportunities Actors
Input Supply • Proliferation of poor quality and 
adulterated inputs
• High cost of inputs
• Weak distribution network
• Promote organic inputs
• Local production, input financing, bulk purchase models
• Reduced reliance on imported products lowers cost and increases 
supply stability
• Rural agro-dealer expansion, improved logistics, PPPs
• Traceability, QR-coded input packages
Input companies, 
Agro-dealers
Research and 
Development
• Inadequate supply of early generation 
seeds
• Government policy misaligning with 
market-based solutions. Public institutions 
have the sole right to seed release
• Underfunding of research for new 
varieties
• Promote private-sector participation in early generation seed (EGS)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Underfunding of research for new 
varieties
• Promote private-sector participation in early generation seed (EGS) 
production to reduce reliance on public institutions.
• Public–private partnerships (PPPs) to co-fund and scale seed research 
and breeding programs.
• Policy reform advocacy to allow competitive seed release systems and 
reduce regulatory bottlenecks.
National Agricultural 
Research Institutes, 
IITA, ICRISAT, 
Licensed Private 
Sector
Regulatory 
framework & 
institutional 
coordination
• Govt. focus on supply of subsidized seeds 
displacing private sector , eroding market 
structures
• Inadequate man-power to  monitor seed 
production and sales.
• Poor coordination among actors
• Strengthen regulatory capacity through training, outsourcing


key: chroma:document
string_value:
production and sales.
• Poor coordination among actors
• Strengthen regulatory capacity through training, outsourcing 
inspections, or partnering with accredited private labs.
• Establish multi-stakeholder platforms to improve coordination among 
breeders, seed companies, regulators, and farmer groups.
NASC, NAQS, NVRC, 
SEEDAN, FMAFS
Farmers Practice • Dependence on the informal seed sector 
for seed supply, this include farmers 
exchange, saved seeds, seeds from grain 
traders.
• Low yield and poor quality
• Limited or no information on variety
• There is a opportunity for Community-based seed enterprises, Small and 
medium seed companies, Agro-dealers investing in certified seed 
distribution.
• With farmers lacking reliable information about seed varieties, there is


key: chroma:document
string_value:
distribution.
• With farmers lacking reliable information about seed varieties, there is 
room for bringing in improved drought-tolerant, pest-resistant, 
demonstration fields and on-farm trials.
Small holder farmers, 
grain traders, agro-
dealers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
- 19 -
GESI related barriers to adoption of Climate-Smart Varieties
S/N Barrier Causes Mitigation
1 Environmental • Poor access to climate -smart seeds due to 
the inefficient last-mile delivery of seed 
companies which hinders female access to 
improved varieties.
• Linked to limited inclusion into seed 
multiplication chains
• Seed companies will establish rural distribution 
channels to facilitate the last -mile delivery of inputs 
which inadvertently reaches female SHFs.
• Incorporating of women into seed multiplication 
systems
2 Institutional • Limited access to land use/land ownership.
• Limited access to credit and financial 
resources due to lack of collateral and low 
ownership of digital devices by women SHFs.
• Providing women with access to financial resources


key: chroma:document
string_value:
ownership of digital devices by women SHFs.
• Providing women with access to financial resources 
through micro-loans and women -centred cooperatives.
• Advocating for gender -responsive policies and 
strengthening enforcement of existing laws that protect 
women's rights.
• Strengthening women's land rights and promoting 
equitable access to land.
3 Attitudinal • Due to existing socio -cultural, and religious 
norms, women are often restricted at the 
household level from access to land, 
extension services adopting new climate -
smart technologies, and working in women 
groups/clusters. 
• Driving behavioural change through advocacy and 
incentivized learning
• Targeting resources and information dissemination 
towards women farmers through gender -sensitive


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Targeting resources and information dissemination 
towards women farmers through gender -sensitive 
extension services and training programs.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention Areas for Climate Smart Seeds
Seed Supply Farmers
Supporting Functions
Rules and Norms
Intervention 2.2 Promote adoption and 
utilization of certified CS seeds by scaling rural 
seed promoter (RSP) model.Intervention 2.1 Increase certified 
CS seeds availability through 
scaling of community seed 
multiplication (CSM) model
2.3 Strengthen the regulatory environment 
for seed certification by strengthening key 
industry bodies e.g., National Agricultural 
Seed Council (NASC)
Extension 
Services
Input supplies 
(fertilizer, CPP)
Financial 
Services
Research and 
Breeding (EGS)
Distribution/M
arketing Mechanization 
Services
Seed 
Multiplication
Market 
Information
Regulatory 
Environment
Gender Norms
Farmers Practices
Quality control 
Import Rules and 
regulations


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Market Vision
To catalyse a commercially driven, inclusive and 
climate-resilient seed market in which private seed 
companies profitably multiply and distribute high-
quality climate-smart and biofortified varieties; 
smallholder farmers reliably access and adopt 
adapted seeds through sustainable last-mile 
channels and increase incomes. Quality assurance 
and governance systems are trusted and enforced; 
and financial institutions provide tailored products 
that enable continuous investment across the seed 
value chain.
Vision of the market
- 22 -
What does scaling mean?
Crowding in of seed  market actors to drive growth 
through
 
Mainstream adoption of community seed 
multiplication and rural seed promoter models to 
drive the supply and last-mile distribution of


key: chroma:document
string_value:
multiplication and rural seed promoter models to 
drive the supply and last-mile distribution of 
climate-smart varieties.
Suitable financial products and services for key 
market actors.
Available innovative digital solutions and 
technologies to drive farmer education
Institutional capacity to implement policies and 
enforce quality control.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention Priorities
- 23 -
Propcom+ is prioritizing two main interventions , based on their scope to address multiple failures and value add in achieving 
scale 
Community seed 
multiplication
Rural seed 
promoters’ 
model 
Explore opportunities for piloting 
the model for Tree crops and 
NTFPs
Explore opportunities to 
promote climate-smart 
varieties and green 
technologies through seed 
codex Delivering 
climate-
smart 
varieties
Community Seed 
Multiplication
Rural Seed 
Promoters
P3 Influence
Strengthen the regulatory environment for seed certification by
strengthening key industry bodies e.g., National Seed Council.
Access to 
finance
Inadequate 
extension 
services
Limited supply
Limited distribution
Inadequate 
extension services
The CSM model will address


key: chroma:document
string_value:
extension 
services
Limited supply
Limited distribution
Inadequate 
extension services
The CSM model will address 
3 market failuresThis model is aimed at 
improving access to climate-
smart as well as bioforitified 
seeds through the out-grower 
model which addresses the 
limited supply of adapted 
varieties
This model will facilitate the 
efficient delivery of extension 
services and the distribution of 
climate-smart seeds to the last 
mile through rural distribution 
networks
The RSP model will 
address 2 market failures


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Seed 
Producers
Seed 
Companies
Core market system Interconnected market system
Technical Skills
Market 
information
Quality control 
Intervention Model: 2.1 Community Seed Multiplication
Environmental 
protection
Custom Services
Environmental 
protection
Drug & Vaccine 
Import regulation   
Environmental 
protection
Farmers Practices
Environmental 
protection
Supply Demand
Supporting Functions
Rules and Norms
Farmers Practices
Quality Control
Gender Norms
Rules and Norms
Supporting Functions
Extension 
Services
Crop Production 
Input supplies 
(fertilizer, CPP) Financial 
Services
Research and 
Breeding (EGS)
Distribution/M
arketing 
Seed 
Multiplication
Market 
Information
Input Supply
Foundation Seed 
Supply
Financial 
Services
Extension 
Services
Mechanization 
Services


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Information
Input Supply
Foundation Seed 
Supply
Financial 
Services
Extension 
Services
Mechanization 
Services
NASC Regulation 
Regulatory 
Environment
Gender Norms 
Environmental 
protection


key: chroma:document
string_value:
INTERVENTION IDEA 1: LINKING TRAINING INSTITUTIONS WITH INPUT SUPPLIERS AND MICROFINANCE
Market Vision To catalyse a commercially driven, inclusive and climate-resilient seed market in which private seed companies profitably multiply and distribute high-
quality climate-smart and biofortified varieties; smallholder farmers reliably access and adopt adapted seeds through sustainable last-mile channels and 
increase incomes. 
Theory of 
Change 
If seed companies provide smallholder farmers with foundation seeds, training, other input, and structured buy-back arrangements and if farmers are 
able to produce and sell high-quality, locally adapted seed while earning premiums and selling surplus within their communities; then a reliable,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
profitable, and locally embedded supply of improved seed will emerge, increasing seed producers incomes and expanding last-mile access to 
climate-adapted varieties.
Intervention 
Concept 
In the model, Seed companies engage smallholder farmers as seed producers to produce high -yielding, locally adapted, improved crop varieties. The 
seed companies support the farmers with capacity building in partnership with National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC), prov ide input on credit, on 
some cases provide access to farmland. At harvest, seed companies do a buy -back at a competitive price, giving farmers a premium  for participating, 
and out-growers sell the surplus to other farmers within their community, thereby boosting local availability.
Potential 
Partners


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Potential 
Partners
Premier Seed, Value Seed, AgriSeedCO, Seed Project Co, Tecni Seed, Asma’u Memorial Farms, Noman Zamani, HASI, NASC
Facilitation 
Activities
B2B linkage facilitation, TA to support adoption of CSM model, Capacity Building on identified capacity gap, grant to support  increased production of 
seeds
Systemic Change A seed system where seed companies continuously engage smallholder farmers as skilled seed out -growers, supported by strong NASC-led capacity 
building, monitoring and quality assurance, enabling a profitable locally embedded supply of high -quality, climate-adapted seeds that reaches last-mile 
communities and strengthens farmer incomes and market access.
Timeframe 3 Years (2024 to 2027)
Feasibility High


key: chroma:document
string_value:
communities and strengthens farmer incomes and market access.
Timeframe 3 Years (2024 to 2027)
Feasibility High
Gender Access to quality climate adapted varieties with the right education, can significantly improve women’s productivity and resi lience. Where gender-
related barriers are addressed, women prove to be good agents of behaviour change for climate messaging.
Climate The cost of agricultural production is greatly impacted by climate change due to reliance on rain -fed production. 
Accelerating climate change puts pressure on agricultural production and food systems including biotic stress (increased pest , pathogens and 
resistance to existing control measures), and water and temperature stress with varied sensitivity across different crops, le ading to higher crop 
failure


key: chroma:document
string_value:
INTERVENTION IDEA 1: LINKING TRAINING INSTITUTIONS WITH INPUT SUPPLIERS AND MICROFINANCE
Original Market Model 
Seed Companies 
Commercial farms
Major Agro-dealers 
Importers
Government and NGOs 
Small-Holder Farmers
Seed companies multiply EGS seeds 
on their own farmlands, although 
few seed companies have nascent  
contract farmers at a small scale
Distributes Seeds to Sales 
outlets or Agro-dealers
Intervention Model: 2.1. Community Seed Multiplication 
Research Institute
Certified EGS Companies
Seed Companies 
Retail Shops 
NGOs and Government distribution 
free seed which undermines the 
market
Seeds do not get to the last mile 
farmers, only few farmers can access.
RI’s are unable to meet EGS 
seed demands
Vegetable seeds are mostly 
imported
Limited number of seed


key: chroma:document
string_value:
RI’s are unable to meet EGS 
seed demands
Vegetable seeds are mostly 
imported
Limited number of seed 
companies sales outlets, 
focused on commercial farms


key: chroma:document
string_value:
INTERVENTION IDEA 1: LINKING TRAINING INSTITUTIONS WITH INPUT SUPPLIERS AND MICROFINANCE
New Interventional Model 
Intervention Model: 2.1. Community Seed Multiplication 
Seed Companies 
Commercial farms
Major Agro-dealers 
Importers
Government and NGOs 
Small-Holder Farmers
P+ support Seed companies 
to engage farmers as seed 
producers
Distributes Seeds to Sales 
outlets or Agro-dealers
Research Institute
Certified EGS Companies
Seed Companies 
Retail Shops 
Breeders/Foundation 
Seeds
Community Seed 
Producers (Out-
growers)
SC provide Foundation 
Seed + Input + 
Extension
Farmers provide 
certified Seed
NASC Train Seed 
Producers
NASC provide training to seed 
producers part of CSM (P+ cost -
share training of outgrowers)
Financial Institution
P+ to facilitate linkage between FIs


key: chroma:document
string_value:
share training of outgrowers)
Financial Institution
P+ to facilitate linkage between FIs 
and Seed Companies/ Outgrowers Farmers rely less on NGOs 
and Government 
distribution free seed which 
undermines the market


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention Intervention Priorities   - Near to immediate term
Community seed 
multiplication model
Market Failure 
addressed
1. Limited Supply
2. Access to Finance
Potential Partners
1. GIRMAL Seeds
2. Tecni-Seeds
3. SeedCo
4. Norman Zamani 
Seeds
5. FIs
Support market actors to improve the supply of climate -adapted seed varieties to farmers by: 
Expanding community seed multiplication to increase the supply of region -specific varieties (food and tree crops) (Operational)
▪ Develop a business case and pitch deck for seed multiplication and distribution. 
▪ Commence engagement with seed companies.
▪ Organize business meetings to pitch the opportunities to seed companies.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
▪ Commence engagement with seed companies.
▪ Organize business meetings to pitch the opportunities to seed companies.
▪ Work with interested seed companies to identify further nutrition -sensitive climate -smart seeds for multiplication 
▪ Co-invest in agreed activities for the seed multiplication.
▪ Use evidence generated from scale -up activities to crowd -in more players/investors through evidence sharing of clear financial 
models and viability reports.
Support activity - build the case to M/Fis for developing and deploying loan products for community seed multiplication.
Use ongoing evidence from seed multiplication activities to develop financial models for engaging with Fis/MFIs.
Support interested M/FIs to develop and test financial products.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Support interested M/FIs to develop and test financial products.
Share evidence with the wider financial communities through multi-communication channels
 Develop/refine loan products suitable for seed companies and out -growers considering diverse gender perspectives.
Undertake value chain analysis of the seed sector to identify and avert possible risks.
Opportunities (Not started)
Explore opportunities for piloting the model for Tree crops and NTFPs, 
Seed Codex: Explore opportunities for building on their open -source channel to promote climate -smart varieties and other inputs/green 
technologies. 
Interventions, Activities and potential partners


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Scale up plan: using 4E framework 
Actively support second 
movers
• Share market insights, early 
success evidence with non -
partners through learning 
sessions and direct pitching to 
partners, and facilitate support 
to confidently enter, adapt, and 
scale model in new locations 
Demonstrate success to 
relevant stakeholders 
• Develop a learning brief on 
Community Seed Multiplication and 
share learnings to other seed 
companies and stakeholders at state 
level, national level.
• Develop and share private sector 
learnings with farmers and 
cooperatives.
• Develop Case Studies, Success stories 
from private sector partners
Strengthen or reform rules 
and regulations, social norms
• Support the certification of at least 
one seed companies to become 
EGS producers, this might require


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Support the certification of at least 
one seed companies to become 
EGS producers, this might require 
the review of the NASC 
certification process.
• Support the establishment and 
operationalisation of state seed 
coordination committees 
Improve the intervention 
model
• Support the promotion of climate 
smart practices adoption among 
seed producers. Evidence showed 
that yield increased when CSA are 
applied.
• Support diversification into low 
fertilizer requiring crops, export 
friendly, and agro-ecology specific 
variety promotion.
Educate Engage
Evolve Establish
Scale up results:
• 15,000 Seed Producers at scale
• 500,000+ farmers 
• 15,000 MT seed produced annually
Scaling Community Seed Multiplication


key: chroma:document
string_value:
RSPs Farmers
Core market system Interconnected market system
Business/Market
ing Skills
Market 
information
Quality 
control 
Intervention Model: 2.2 Rural Seed Promotion
Environmental 
protection
Custom Services
Environmental 
protection
Drug & Vaccine 
Import regulation   
Environmental 
protection
Farmers Practices
Environmental 
protection
Supply Demand
Supporting Functions
Rules and Norms
Farmers Practices
Environmental 
protection
Rules and Norms
Supporting Functions
Extension 
Services
Crop Production 
Input supplies 
(fertilizer, CPP) Financial 
Services
Research and 
Breeding (EGS)
Distribution/M
arketing Mechanization 
Services
Seed 
Multiplication
Market 
Information
Quality 
control 
Gender 
Gender
Financial 
Services
Media
TransportE-commerce 
Platforms
Regulatory


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Information
Quality 
control 
Gender 
Gender
Financial 
Services
Media
TransportE-commerce 
Platforms
Regulatory 
Environment Regulatory 
Environment 
Cultural Norms


key: chroma:document
string_value:
INTERVENTION IDEA 1: LINKING TRAINING INSTITUTIONS WITH INPUT SUPPLIERS AND MICROFINANCE
Market Vision A competitive and inclusive seed market where seed companies sustainably reach last-mile farmers through RSPs, farmers reliably access climate-adapted seeds and 
advisory services within their communities.
Theory of 
Change
IF Propcom + provides supports that strengthen seed companies’ ability to work with RSPs as viable last-mile retailers and extension agents; and IF farmers can 
reliably access climate-adapted seeds in their communities; THEN a sustainable, market-driven seed system will emerge where seed companies profitably reach 
last-mile farmers and RSPs thrive as micro-entrepreneurs, and farmers will have increased yield and income.
Intervention 
Concept


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention 
Concept
The rural seed promoter (RSP) model seeks to address the limited access to improved seeds for farmers in rural areas. This model enables micro-entrepreneurs 
within these communities to act as intermediaries by purchasing seeds from major seed distributors and selling them directly to farmers, earning a margin. These 
micro-entrepreneurs also provide trainings and extension services for farmers to maximize the benefits of investing in improved seeds for crop production.
Potential 
Partners Premier Seed, Value Seed, AgriSeedCO, Seed Project Co, Tecni Seed, Asma’u Memorial Farms, Noman Zamani, HASI
Facilitation 
Activities


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Facilitation 
Activities
B2B/market linkage facilitation, TA to support adoption of RSP model, capacity building on marketing and business skills, grant to support expanded market 
outreach.
Systemic 
Change
A commercially viable and inclusive seed market system where seed companies actively engages rural seed promoters (RSPs) to deliver climate-adapted seeds and 
bundled with extension services to farmers at the last mile; RSPs operate as profitable micro-entrepreneurs; farmers reliably access quality seeds within their own 
communities and reporting increased yield and income.
Timeframe 3 Years (2024 to 2027)
Feasibility High


key: chroma:document
string_value:
communities and reporting increased yield and income.
Timeframe 3 Years (2024 to 2027)
Feasibility High
Gender Access to quality climate adapted varieties with the right education, can significantly improve women’s productivity and resilience. Where gender-related barriers 
are addressed, women prove to be good agents of behaviour change for climate messaging.
Climate
The cost of agricultural production is greatly impacted by climate change due to reliance on rain-fed production. 
Accelerating climate change puts pressure on agricultural production and food systems including biotic stress (increased pest, pathogens and resistance to existing 
control measures), and water and temperature stress with varied sensitivity across different crops, leading to higher crop failure


key: chroma:document
string_value:
INTERVENTION IDEA 1: LINKING TRAINING INSTITUTIONS WITH INPUT SUPPLIERS AND MICROFINANCE
Original Market Model 
Seed Companies 
Commercial farms
Major Agro-dealers 
Importers
Government and NGOs 
Small-Holder Farmers
Seed companies multiply EGS seeds 
on their own farmlands, although 
some seed companies have 
contract farmers at a small scale
Distributes Seeds to Sales 
outlets or Agro-dealers
Intervention Model: 2.2 Rural Seed Promoters
Research Institute
Certified EGS Companies
Seed Companies 
Retail Shops 
NGOs and Government distribution 
free seed which undermines the 
market
Seeds does not get to the last mile 
farmers, only few farmers can access.
RI’s are unable to meet EGS 
seed demands
Vegetable seeds are mostly 
imported
Limited number of seed 
companies sales outlets


key: chroma:document
string_value:
INTERVENTION IDEA 1: LINKING TRAINING INSTITUTIONS WITH INPUT SUPPLIERS AND MICROFINANCE
New Interventional Model 
Intervention Model: 2.2 Rural Seed Promoters
Seed Companies 
Commercial farms
Major Agro-dealers 
Importers
Government and NGOs 
Small-Holder Farmers
P+ support Seed companies to engage 
farmers as seed producers
Distributes Seeds to Sales 
outlets or Agro-dealers
Research Institute
Certified EGS Companies
Seed Companies 
Retail Shops 
Breeders/Foundation 
Seeds
Community Seed 
Producers (Out-
growers)
SC provide Foundation Seed + 
Input + Extension
Farmers provide 
certified Seed
NASC Train Seed 
Producers
NASC provide training to seed 
producers part of CSM (P+ cost -
share training of outgrowers)
Financial Institution
P+ to facilitate linkage between FIs and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
share training of outgrowers)
Financial Institution
P+ to facilitate linkage between FIs and 
Seed Companies/ Outgrowers
RSPs
RSPs receive GAP, 
business/marketing skills 
training from seed 
company, receive seed on 
credit for sales. 
Government and NGOs 
still provide 
free/subsidized seeds in 
conflict affected areas.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention Interventions Priorities - Operational
Rural Seed 
Promoters Model
Market Failures 
1. Limited 
distribution
2. Inadequate 
extension 
services
Potential Partners
1. Premier Seeds
2. GIRMAL Seeds
3. T ecni-Seeds
4. SeedCo
5. Norman Zamani 
Seeds
Strengthen rural distribution channels for seeds by scaling the RSP models to reach inclusive smallholders (50% 
women) and help seed companies enter new markets by: 
Developing a business case and pitch deck to seed companies to develop and leverage the RSP channels, along with other 
grassroots networks; women groups negotiate and co -invest with partners targeting relevant crops and locations.
Support Partners to activate (identify and train) RSPs including women and establish product supply to RSPs who go on to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
promote and sell to farmers, earning a margin from it.
Use evidence generated from scale -up activities to crowd -in more actors
Support intervention – Improve farmer access to knowledge via:
Farmer engagement on demo days and routine check -ins to facilitate the delivery of good agricultural practices (GAP).
Leverage grassroots marketing and communication networks through radio programs to ensure inclusivity and gender 
sensitivity
Provide generic support for digital extension – Support agri-tech companies to update and share knowledge on climate -
smart varieties in catchment areas, weather information and region -specific varieties.
Co-investing knowledge/awareness on the availability and benefits of using CS varieties through tailored content to bridge


key: chroma:document
string_value:
the knowledge gap on farmers’ lack of information on climate -appropriate selection  and upkeep of seeds 
Interventions, Activities and potential partners…2/3


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Scale up plan: using 4E framework 
Actively support second 
movers
• Share market insights with non -
partnered seed companies, early 
success evidence, and facilitation 
support to confidently enter, 
adapt, and scale model in new 
locations 
• Share RSPs profitability analysis, 
sales data with financial institution  
to show market opportunity, 
triggering development of financial 
product for the RSP. 
Demonstrate success to 
relevant stakeholders 
• Develop a learning brief on Rural 
Seed Promotion and share learnings 
to other seed companies and 
stakeholders at state level, national 
level
• Develop Case Studies, Success stories 
from private sector partners and 
share with other seed companies
Strengthen or reform rules 
and regulations, social norms


key: chroma:document
string_value:
share with other seed companies
Strengthen or reform rules 
and regulations, social norms
• Support women participation in 
seed sales by creating an enabling 
environment.
Improve the intervention 
model
• Modify the RSP model to integrate 
agro-dealers as an active actor in the 
supply change.
• Support RSPs to include other inputs 
in their baskets of products
Educate Engage
Evolve Establish
Scale up results:
• 5,000 RSPs
• 500,000 Smallholder farmers
Scaling Rural Seed Promotion


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partnership Offer
- 41 -
Community Seed Multiplication Model
Establishment of demo &  
seed multiplication plots
Extension services
Breeder seed 
procurement
Procurement of inputs
Technical support
De-risking & co-
investment in farmer 
education
Advisory services
Market Linkages
Seed companies Propcom+
Rural Seed Promoters Model 
Establish rural distribution 
channels and set up demo 
plots
Deliver extension services to 
farmers
Facilitate the marketing and 
promotion of climate-smart 
seeds to rural farmers.
Advisory services
Capacity Building
De-risking & co-
investments.
Seed companies Propcom+


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Challenges and Gaps: Seed Quality Assurance
- 43 -
Lack of adequate capacity within NASC
Lack of International Seed Testing Association 
(ISTA) Accredited Labs
Lack of effective Quality Assurance activities at 
agrodealers and other seed distribution points
Absence of a binding regulatory framework on 
certification
Unpredictability of the import permitting 
process
Inadequate farmer awareness of SEEDCODEX 
and SEED Tracker
Additional QA functions need to be in place for ICT 
solutions (Seed Tracker and Seed Codex) to be 
more effective.
Lack of funding for Quality Assurance 
activities.
Lack of regulations and enforcement for QA, 
including anti-counterfeiting measures
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Challenges  and Gaps: Seed Quality Assurance 1/3 
- 44 -
National Seed Quality Assurance (QA).
▪ Lack of adequate capacity within NASC: Quality Assurance (QA) is the mandate of the National Agricultural Seed 
Council (NASC). However, the NASC is constrained by inadequate resources to fulfil its mandate. It is essential to 
assess the NASC’s specific human resource capacity needs and subsequently provide the funds to address them. 
▪ Lack of International Seed Testing Association (ISTA) Accredited Labs: There is no ISTA-accredited lab in the 
country. The existing labs have substantial inadequacies, including a lack of or poor equipment, inadequate 
infrastructure, insufficient storage, and limited technical capacity.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
infrastructure, insufficient storage, and limited technical capacity. 
▪ Lack of effective Quality Assurance activities at agrodealers and other seed distribution points: Best practices 
related to protecting and ensuring seed quality at distribution points, and supporting seed distributors to understand 
and engage in these practices, are broadly related to: i) registering and tracking qualified distributors; ii) ensuring 
valid supply chains, including appropriate labelling; iii) identifying and penalizing distributors that adulterate seed; iv) 
ensuring that carryover stock is returned to seed companies for retesting versus being sold without retesting and 
relabeling, and v) verifying good distributor storage conditions that are free of weevils and have appropriate


key: chroma:document
string_value:
relabeling, and v) verifying good distributor storage conditions that are free of weevils and have appropriate 
temperature and humidity conditions. However, effective planning and implementation are still outstanding.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Challenges  and Gaps  on Seed Quality Assurance 2/3 
- 45 -
▪ Inconsistent application of ECOWAS rules: The NASC Act aligns Nigeria’s seed regulation with ECOWAS seed 
regulations. Under the ECOWAS Seed Regulations, any variety entered in the national catalogue of a Member State 
should be included in the West African Catalogue of Plant Species and Varieties and can be traded freely throughout 
the ECOWAS region. But in practice, (i) varieties that are registered in other ECOWAS Member States’ national 
catalogues and listed in the West African Catalogue of Plant Species and Varieties still require retesting to evaluate their 
compatibility with Nigerian agro-ecological conditions, contrary to the ECOWAS seed rules; (ii) Some DUS and VCU


key: chroma:document
string_value:
compatibility with Nigerian agro-ecological conditions, contrary to the ECOWAS seed rules; (ii) Some DUS and VCU 
testing protocols are not aligned with the 2008 ECOWAS Procedure Manual for Variety Registration in the National 
Catalogue for Crop Species and Varieties in West African Countries, and (iii) stakeholders reported bureaucratic 
challenges when importing varieties registered in other ECOWAS Member States even when listed in the West African 
Seed Catalogue.
▪ Weak implementation of anti-counterfeiting measures: Under the NASC Act, anyone convicted of a counterfeiting 
offence is subject to imprisonment for up to one year or a fine of up to 1 million naira (or both) for a first-time offender,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
and imprisonment for up to two years or a fine of up to 2 million naira (or both) for a multiple offender. It has been 
reported that, although penalties have been strengthened under the NASC Act, there have been no reported cases of 
prosecution, and counterfeit seed remains a major challenge.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Challenges  and Gaps : Seed Quality Assurance 3/3  
- 46 -
▪ Additional QA functions need to be in place for ICT solutions (Seed Tracker and Seed Codex) to be more effective. 
The accuracy, efficiency, and transparency of QA are all strengthened by the appropriate and sustainable use of IT tools. 
NASC has already selected the Seed Tracker and Seed Codex tools to provide digitised support for field QA operations and 
certified seed authentication, respectively. However, additional technical vetting is required to assess the efficiency and 
functionality of the tracker since its implementation. 
▪ In addition, technical IT capacity building, with respect to hardware, software, project management, data capture and 
analysis, and user interface, is needed.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
analysis, and user interface, is needed.
▪ Lack of funding for Quality Assurance activities. The poor status of seed laboratories and equipment indicates severe 
underfunding, as does the lack of training, vehicles, and support for inspector facilitation. NASC and the Nigeria Agricultural 
Quarantine Service (NAQS) charge for services offered, but the fee and/or collection levels are reported to be inadequate. 
Due to the funding gap, certification officers are not adequately equipped (with vehicles and funds) and risk being 
compromised by seed companies.
▪ Inadequate farmer awareness of SEEDCODEX and SEED Tracker: These two initiatives are implemented by the NASC. 
However, their success is constrained by the lack of awareness among the farmers who are the main beneficiaries.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
However, their success is constrained by the lack of awareness among the farmers who are the main beneficiaries.
▪ Lack of regulations and enforcement for QA, including anti-counterfeiting measures: There is poor implementation of 
QA activities for seed storage, carryover and retesting, with a lack of verification of proper disposal of obsolete and/or low-
quality seed. The roll-out of the SeedCodex feature on seed packets aims to combat counterfeit seeds, but is currently not 
fully utilised or functional.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Challenges and Gaps: Seed Sector Governance Systems 
Weak coordination mechanisms reinforce 
disconnects around incentives and interests 
across institutions, companies, and donors:
Inadequate and inaccurate seed demand 
and supply information constrains planning, 
budgeting, and coordination
The national seed trade association, 
SEEDAN, while a strong advocate for private 
seed company policy initiatives, lacks regional 
and commodity working group representation.
Key gaps and challenges in National 
Planning and Coordination in Nigeria
Inconsistent application of ECOWAS 
rules
Weak implementation of anti-
counterfeiting measures
Delayed annual budget releases to public 
institutions affects performance
01
02
03
04
05
06
07


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Challenges  and Gaps: Seed Governance 1/2 
- 48 -
National Planning and Coordination (NPC)
• Key gaps and challenges in National Planning and Coordination in Nigeria. Annual budgets consistently fall short of high-level 
planning commitments to fund agricultural development. The national budget allocation to the agriculture sector has stagnated between 
1.0% and 2.0% from 2017 to 2020. The commitments are not consistent with Nigeria’s high-level commitments to the Comprehensive 
African Agricultural Development Programme (CAADP. It was posited that while the FMAFS’s departments and agencies collectively rank 
as one of the largest recipients of recurrent budgetary allocations, the allocations to research and development, EGS production, regulatory


key: chroma:document
string_value:
agencies, and the promotion of new crop varieties have a history of underfunding. 
• Delayed annual budget releases to public institutions affect performance: It was reported that the budget releases against their 
allocated budgets are relative to their performance in the agriculture sector. Over the past four years, the National Assembly’s approval 
for budget releases often occurred in the mid-year of that current fiscal year. The late release of funds was responsible for trials, breeder 
seed plots, and national performance trials, which were often delayed or had to be deferred, resulting in a weak regulatory enforcement 
capacity. 
• Weak coordination mechanisms reinforce disconnects around incentives and interests across institutions, companies, and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
donors: NASC has clear responsibility for seed sector coordination from research, through all classes of quality assured seed, varietal 
promotion, licensing of seed businesses, industry and market development, seed trade, and administration of elements of subsidy 
programs. The National Seed Road Map (NSRM) and the NASC 2020-2025 strategy recognise that funding falls short of requirements to 
staff, and support for NASC operations is required to reach the needed standard. In addition, linkages to public extension are perceived as 
weak by the research institutions and seed producers, given the high household-to-extension officer ratio, the breadth of extension worker


key: chroma:document
string_value:
responsibilities, and low funding. It was also reported that private seed companies have started their own combined extension/marketing  
agent services


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Challenges  and Gaps – Seed Governance 2/2  
- 49 -
• Inadequate and inaccurate seed demand and supply information constrains planning, budgeting, and 
coordination: One of NASC’s core roles in the National Seed Policy is to establish and maintain a system for collecting 
and disseminating data on seed use, planned needs and seed availability to support decision-making by seed suppliers 
and users. However, the NASC faces challenges in developing a strong information base on seed demand and supply 
across the major cereal and legume food crops, as well as vegetatively propagated crops. Improvements in data collection, 
management and forecast modelling are expedient for bridging the gap and reducing counterfeit seeds.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
management and forecast modelling are expedient for bridging the gap and reducing counterfeit seeds.
• The National Seed Trade Association, SEEDAN, while a strong advocate for private seed company policy 
initiatives, lacks regional and commodity working group representation. SEEDAN represents the private seed 
industry in Nigeria. Since its inception, it has maintained a strong focus on promoting and advocating for the Nigerian 
private seed companies that are active in crop seed breeding, production, marketing, and distribution. Its core membership 
comes from companies focused on cereals, legumes, and vegetables. TASAI research report indicates that there is weak 
communication and transparency in governance in SEEDAN.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
communication and transparency in governance in SEEDAN. 
• National government programmes and projects include input subsidy programmes and schemes to improve access to 
credit. National subsidy programme rationales are based on seed supply to increase productivity and income in targeted 
groups and zones. Subsidy implementation approaches are viewed by seed producers as too skewed by top-down 
initiatives that diverge from the more market-oriented approaches that could have defined an exit strategy.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Seed Sector Quality assurance and Governance Systems  within the MSD “donut”
Reforms are necessary to scale seed 
production by agribusiness for farmers
Policy implementation and coordination, 
especially at the state level is crucial to 
attract increased investments from seed 
companies.
The seed tracker & seeds Codex verifies 
seed authenticity, but its practical 
utilization and impact on countering 
counterfeit seeds are unclear.
A huge gap exists in the state’s capacity to 
regulate and enforce seed quality. This 
affects farmers' confidence, reduces 
demand, and makes private sector actors 
perceive it as a risky investment.
Evidence-based advocacy is expedient 
to drive coordination, effective targeting, 
and policy implementation
Governance Systems Laws
Regulations
Standards


key: chroma:document
string_value:
to drive coordination, effective targeting, 
and policy implementation
Governance Systems Laws
Regulations
Standards
Infrastructure
Information
Skills & 
Technology
Related 
services
Seed Quality 
Assurance 
3rd party seed quality 
assurance model
Inclusive seed sector 
platform 
Sensitisation & adoption 
of the use of seed 
tracker & seed codex
Establishment & 
operationalisation of 
state seed coordination 
committees
Farmers trust 
FMLD
Drug & Vaccine 
Import regulation   
Environmental 
protection
Farmers Practices
CSS Supply Farmers
Extension 
Services
Input supplies 
(fertilizer, CPP)
Financial 
Services
Research and 
Breeding (EGS)
Distribution/
Marketing Mechanization 
Services
Seed 
Multiplication
Regulatory 
Environment
Gender Norms
Market 
Information
Supporting Functions


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Services
Seed 
Multiplication
Regulatory 
Environment
Gender Norms
Market 
Information
Supporting Functions
Rules and Norms
Import Rules and 
regulations
Farmers Practices
Quality Control


key: chroma:document
string_value:
INTERVENTION IDEA 1: LINKING TRAINING INSTITUTIONS WITH INPUT SUPPLIERS AND MICROFINANCE
Market Vision A transparent, well-regulated, digitally traceable seed market in which high-quality, climate-smart seed moves efficiently across states and ECOWAS borders, 
counterfeit seed is significantly reduced, and private seed companies invest confidently in varietal development and distribution.
Theory of 
Change
IF seed quality assurance is decentralised and digitised, governance coordination is strengthened, and regulatory enforcement becomes credible and predictable, 
THEN farmer trust increases, private seed companies expand investment, counterfeit seed declines, and adoption of climate-smart varieties scales sustainably.
Intervention 
Concept


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention 
Concept
Facilitate systemic reform of Nigeria’s seed regulatory ecosystem through two core components: (1) Third-Party Seed Quality Assurance (SQA) and digital traceability 
(Seed Tracker & Codex), and (2) Strengthening seed governance and coordination (inclusive seed platforms, state coordination committees, regulatory alignment). 
Propcom+ provides time-bound technical assistance and convening power—not regulatory execution. 
Potential 
Partners
NASC (National Agricultural Seed Council); FMAFS; State Seed Coordination Committees; SEEDAN; private seed companies; accredited third-party QA agencies; 
NAQS; research institutions; ECOWAS seed harmonisation bodies; digital solution providers (SeedTracker/Codex).
Facilitation 
Activities


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Facilitation 
Activities
• Technical assistance to scale third-party SQA models. • Support rollout and adoption of Seed Tracker & Codex. • Facilitate inclusive Seed Sector Platform for 
coordination. • Support implementation framework for Plant Variety Protection Act 2021. • Establish and operationalise State Seed Coordination Committees in 
Propcom+ focal states.  • Evidence-based advocacy and performance audits. 
Systemic 
Change
Shift from centralised, under-resourced QA to decentralised, accountable, digitally traceable system; embed private compliance incentives; reduce counterfeit seed; 
improve cross-border trade alignment; institutionalise coordination and accountability mechanisms across public and private actors.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Timeframe Phase 1 (Issue discovery & design): Jun–Oct 2025.  Phase 2 (TA implementation & pilots): Jan–Sep 2026.  Phase 3 (Action learning & scaling documentation): Oct–Nov 
2026.  
Feasibility Moderate. Strong policy alignment (NASC Act 2019, PVP Act 2021, National Seed Roadmap) but risks include bureaucratic inertia, budget delays, weak enforcement 
culture, and political economy resistance to stricter QA enforcement. 
Gender Indirect but meaningful. Improved QA and reduced counterfeit seed disproportionately benefit smallholder farmers, including women who often face higher 
exposure to seed fraud. Inclusion of women-led enterprises in seed distribution can be strengthened through coordination platforms.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Climate High relevance. Strengthened QA and governance increases availability and trust in climate-smart seed varieties, enabling adoption of stress-tolerant and biofortified 
varieties central to resilience and productivity gains.
Intervention Summary: 2.3. Seed Quality and Governance System


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Component 1 –Third Party Seed Quality Assurance System   
52
Context and Rationale
• Nigeria’s seed quality assurance  system historically  relied on centralised  oversight. To strengthen the seed quality assurance  subsector,  
the auditing of resources  (25%) of field inspections  by third-party seed certification  entities will enforce compliance  oversight.  (NASC 2025) 
• Recent pilot decentralisation  via the SQA models, as endorsed at the 2024 Collaborative  Seed Programme  workshop,  shows promise in 
scaling inspection  coverage, reducing costs, and fostering ownership  among seed businesses. 
• The integration  of Codex and Seed Tracker platforms ensures transparency,  strengthens  regulatory enforcement,  and empowers  both small 
and large companies  with efficient QA tools.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
and large companies  with efficient QA tools.
Actionable Strategies
• Decentralized Seed Quality Control : TA for the r oll out and scale up of the three-tier 
SQA models: 
• Internal quality control led by seed companies and supervised by NASC.
• Advocacy on the promotion of  seed certification through accredited third -party 
agencies.
• PPD on the promotion of NASC-led licensed seed inspectors deployed regionally.
• Integrated Traceability : Support NASC in the sensitization and adoption of the use of 
digital traceability  tools (SeedTracker , Seed Codex) for all commercial and institutional 
seed supply. All seed packages must carry unique batch numbers and e -verification 
codes.
• Performance Audits : Provide support to NASC for the assessment of the seed quality


key: chroma:document
string_value:
codes.
• Performance Audits : Provide support to NASC for the assessment of the seed quality 
management systems of seed companies.
Measurable Outcomes
• Improved food security and market credibility as a 
result of 50% of marketed seed lots carrying 
validated digital Codex tags within three years.
• Increased agricultural productivity with at least 40% 
of seed certification processes handled at the sub -
national (state or LG) level by 2027.
• Regional laboratories accredited and operational in 
at least 5 geopolitical zones .
• Enhanced food security and a more stable 
agricultural sector because Farmer complaints and 
counterfeiting reports reduced by 50% by 2028.
• Standards for seed certification are adhered to, and 
85% of seed companies in the Propcom+ focal


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Standards for seed certification are adhered to, and 
85% of seed companies in the Propcom+ focal 
states demonstrate improved QA compliance in 
annual audits.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Component 2 – Strengthening Seed Sector Governance  Systems 
53
Context and Rationale
 Context & Rationale 
• The Nigerian  Agricultural Seeds Council (NASC), a semi autonomous agency of FMAFS  is responsible for  regulating the seed industry in Nigeria. 
• The seed sector in Nigeria is governed by the National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC) Act of 2019; the Plant variety Act of 2021and the National Seed Policy of 2015. In 
addition, the 2019 National Seeds Roadmap for Nigeria (NASC 2020) provides the framework and strategy for the growth of the formal seed sector.  
• Nigeria’s seed sector governance has faced challenges in overlapping mandates, coordination, exclusion of key actors, and slow adaptation of regulatory frameworks.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• According the National Seeds Road MAP, sector governance and coordination is  critical to the transformation of the seed sector (NSRM 2020).
• Successful pilots in establishing coordination platforms, stakeholder planning (e.g., Seed Sector Platform), and third-party audits demonstrate the potential for transparent, 
accountable management and international best practice alignment. 
Actionable Strategies
• Seed Sector Governance and Coordination: 
• Support the establishment  of an inclusive National Seed Sector Platform for joint planning and 
data sharing among public, private, and civil actors to oversee quality, procurement,  
compliance,  and audit functions; ensure all major procurement  includes external stakeholder  
participation,  with administrative  function by NASC


key: chroma:document
string_value:
participation,  with administrative  function by NASC 
• Provide support for the development  of the implementation  framework  for the Plant Variety 
Protection  Act 2021 in alignment  with the ECOWAS seed protocols
• Support the development  of a framework  which will clarify the roles and responsibilities  of 
institutions  responsible  for the function of variety release and registration . 
• Support the development  of clear procedures  for the certification  process in NASC regulations .  
• Provide support for the development  of a checklist for quality assurance  activities in the market. 
• Support the establishment  and operationalisation  of state seed coordination  committees  using 
Propcom+ states as a pilot
Measurable Outcomes
• Enhanced  availability to quality


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Propcom+ states as a pilot
Measurable Outcomes
• Enhanced  availability to quality 
seeds with stronger seed 
governance  with public 
documentation of targets and 
progress.
• Improved resource allocation , 
effectiveness and accountability 
in the seeds sector. 
• Agricultural innovation and rights 
of farmers enforced because of 
the Implementation framework of 
the Plant Variety Act  of 2021 in  
alignment with ECOWAS 
harmonized seed protocols by 
2026.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Phased approach and timeline
• Issue discovery through the convening of 
a seed industry practitioners forum 
brought together key players in the 
different points of the seed value chain 
(regulators, research institutions, seed 
associations, private sector companies, 
etc.) to harvest issues hindering the 
implementation of the seed policy and 
emerging issues since the policy's launch.
• On the issue analysis process, a joint 
improvement action plan/ accountability 
framework was developed
• Further consultation sessions with NASC 
to prioritise issues and define areas/ entry 
points for technical assistance to 
strengthen the seed regulatory ecosystem 
Timeline: June – October 2025 
Phase 1
Timeline: January – September 2026
Phase 2
• Action learning and adaption


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Timeline: June – October 2025 
Phase 1
Timeline: January – September 2026
Phase 2
• Action learning and adaption 
based on lessons from TA 
support and pilots in Propcom+ 
focal state for documentation, 
scaling and lesson sharing 
Timeline: October – 
November 2026
Phase 3
Key Activities
• Design of the policy intervention addressing regulatory 
issues of the climate-smart seeds and seedlings portfolio 
• TA support to NASC is defined for implementation in two 
priority areas, which include: 
• Third Party Seed Quality Assurance 
• Strengthening Seed Sector Governance  
• With a bucket of activities under each component area, 
including: 
• Facilitation of a dialogue to build consensus 
among key actors on regulatory compliance 
around the cross-border movement of seeds


key: chroma:document
string_value:
among key actors on regulatory compliance 
around the cross-border movement of seeds 
• Socialisation of seed standards 
• Enforcement of standards and certification 
• Establishment and operationalisation of State 
Seed Coordination Committees to be piloted in 
Propcom+ focal states


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention Alignment with National Food Security Objectives 
55
Proposed intervention is closely mapped to Nigeria’s overarching agricultural development goals of food and 
nutritional security, inclusive growth, sustainable rural economies, climate resilience, and job creation, as 
outlined in the following: 
The National Development Plan Mainstreaming of third-party and private seed 
certification, and data-centric approaches 
outlined in the Nigeria Digital Agriculture 
Strategy (NDAS) 2020–2030.The NASC Revised Strategic Plan 2025–2029
Plant Variety Protection (PVP) Act 2021
The National Seed Roadmap, 2020
The Renewed Hope Agenda.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Systemic Theory of Change– Climate Smart Seeds
- 57 -
The Systemic Theory of Change articulates how Propcom+ moves beyond 
facilitative activities —such as brokering partnerships with seed companies, 
strengthening quality assurance systems, and supporting state coordination 
platforms—to catalyse lasting changes in private -sector behaviour within the 
seed market system. These interventions trigger commercial expansion of 
community seed multiplication (CSM) and rural seed promoter (RSP) models, 
improve quality assurance compliance, and strengthen last -mile distribution of 
climate-smart and biofortified seed varieties.
The SToC demonstrates how increased adoption of adapted seeds, improved 
crop productivity, and stronger farmer incomes are achieved through shifts in


key: chroma:document
string_value:
crop productivity, and stronger farmer incomes are achieved through shifts in 
incentives, regulatory credibility, and market relationships —rather than 
through direct input distribution. Over time, strengthened governance 
systems, reduced counterfeit risks, and improved access to finance crowd in 
additional seed companies and service providers, embedding a commercially 
viable system beyond programme support.
Systemic Theory of Change


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention Guides and Results Chains
- 58 -
• 3.1 Increase certified CS seeds availability through scaling of community seed multiplication (CSM) model
• 3.2 Promote adoption and utilization of certified CS seeds  by scaling rural seed promoter (RSP) model.
• 3.3 Strengthen the regulatory environment for seed certification by strengthening key industry bodies e.g., 
National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC)
Insert link
Community Seed Multiplication IG_version 3_Current.xlsx
Rural Seed Promotion IG_version5_Current.xlsx
Regulatory Environment for Seed Certification IG - Y3Q2 update.xlsx


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Contribution to Propcom+ Impact
Areas
Climate adaptation
Climate adapted variety helps farmers cope with climatic changes and maintain quality yields
Mod. impact
Poverty reduction
Reduces the poverty level of SHFs by improving productivity and yield while reducing the time and effort required for farmers 
to produce, thereby helping farmers increase efficiency and profitability
High impact
Nutrition
The adoption of climate -smart varieties leads to improved productivity and yields, with direct impact on nutrition
High impact
Women empowerment
Provides economic, and market linkage opportunities for women SHFs within the seeds market, with direct impact on their nutri tion
Mod.
impact
Climate mitigation


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Mod.
impact
Climate mitigation
The adoption of CSA practices, combined with the use of adapted seed varieties improves the efficiency of production and redu ced emissions 
associated with waste averted.
Med. impact
High impact


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5 seed companies supported to scale 
up seed multiplication and RSP model: 
additional 5 unsupported companies 
adopting the model. 
Impact estimates - by end of year 3
10
10,000 MT
Of climate adapted seeds multiplied 
annually through the community 
seed multiplication model
10
Private nurseries for relevant climate 
smart adapted seedlings established.
200,000
Farmers across 5 states know and use climate -
adapted varieties (50% women)
- 63 -
500
RSPs routinely marketing climate 
adapted varieties to rural farmers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Result estimates - by end of year 3
- 64 -
Seed 
companies
Output
Access to 
Finance
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
• 5 seed companies re -investing into 
commercialized climate -smart 
seed production leveraging P+ 
support.
• > 500ha of land cultivated for dry & 
wet season production.
• 240 community seed multipliers 
(50% women)
• 1,000 MT of seeds produced. 
• 25,000 farmers reached potentially.
• 100 RSPs engaged.
• Support FI’s learning cost to 
analyse the yield and the 
financials of seed companies to 
develop a case for product 
development
• 10 seed companies investing (5 
unsupported) into commercialized 
climate smart seeds production 
leveraging financial support from FIs.
• 5 private nurseries established
• > 1250 ha of land cultivated for dry & 
wet season production.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• 5 private nurseries established
• > 1250 ha of land cultivated for dry & 
wet season production.
• >500 community seed multipliers 
(50% women)
• >2,500 MT of seeds produced. 
• 75,000 farmers reached potentially
• 250 RSPs engaged.
• Available financial products for seed 
companies.
• Pilot investments from FIs into seed 
production.
• 10 seed companies investing (5 
unsupported) into 
commercialized climate smart 
seeds production leveraging 
financial support from FIs.
• 10 private nurseries established
• > 2500ha of land cultivated for dry 
and wet season production.
• >1500 community seed multipliers 
(50% women)
• >5,000MT of seeds produced
• 200,000 farmers reached potentially
• 500 RSPs engaged.
• Innovative financial products for 
seed value chain actors.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• 200,000 farmers reached potentially
• 500 RSPs engaged.
• Innovative financial products for 
seed value chain actors.
• Increased investment from FIs into 
seed production.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Budget & VFM
- 65 -
Indicator Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Total operational 
costs /total costs
£105,000 £60,000 £25,000
Cost per farmer 
reached
£5.8 £3.2 £1.6
% of farmers reached 
who are female
50 50 50
Private sector 
investment leveraged
£40,000 £180,000 £300,000
Built on assumptions of the  Propcom Mai-
Karfi program, the table presents the data 
for value for money metrics from Y1 – Y3. 
Propcom+ will scale down its investments 
annually, with the expectation that financial 
institutions will fill the financial gaps with 
suitable products for seed companies.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Adopt-Adapt-Expand-Respond (AAER) Framework
Adopt
Adopt
Adapt
• Seed companies adapt internal QA systems to meet 
strengthened certification and traceability requirements.
• States adapt national seed frameworks to local realities and 
improve enforcement coordination.
• Financial institutions adapt products to support licensed seed 
companies and multiplication financing.
• Extension systems adapt delivery models to promote 
climate-smart/biofortified varieties.
• NASC strengthens institutional capacity and sustainable 
service delivery financing..
• Seed companies adopt structured out-grower multiplication 
(CSM model) to scale climate-smart and biofortified 
varieties.
• Farmers adopt improved seed and GAP practices through 
strengthened extension and RSP channels.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
varieties.
• Farmers adopt improved seed and GAP practices through 
strengthened extension and RSP channels.
• NASC operationalizes strengthened certification, inspection, 
and digital compliance systems.
• Regulatory agencies (NAQS, NCS, NAFDAC) adopt 
coordinated seed import/export and quality control 
procedures.
• State Seed Coordination Committees adopt harmonized 
regulatory oversight aligned with NASC standards.
• Financial and digital service providers enter the seed market 
with tailored products.
• Insurance providers develop risk products for seed 
production.
• Government allocates resources to institutionalize climate-
smart seeds.
• Private investors increase funding in multiplication, QA 
systems, and commercialization.
• The seed system responds with greater transparency,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
systems, and commercialization.
• The seed system responds with greater transparency, 
efficiency, and resilience.
• CSM model expands geographically across agro-ecological 
zones.
• Last-mile distribution channels for adapted varieties expand 
through RSP and private networks.
• New seed companies crowd in to leverage structured 
multiplication and improved governance.
• Digital seed certification and traceability tools gain wider 
adoption nationally.
• State Seed Coordination Committees expand in membership 
and functionality.
• Regional alignment strengthens via ECOWAS harmonized 
seed regulation compliance.
Expand
Respond


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Risks and Mitigation
- 67 -
S/N Risk Mitigation Strategies
1 Poor record keeping results in incorrect assessments of 
adherence to protocol by farmers Regular monitoring through the Dynamic and Adaptive Monitoring system
2 SHFs to continue their old habit of using recycled seeds. RSPs would be trained on GAP and marketing skills to reach farmers with 
knowledge and  certified seeds
3 The inability of seed companies and RSPs to meet up with supply 
& and lack of affordable packs.
Work with seed companies to produce and sell smaller packs like 1kg and 
2 kg to address the challenge of affordability.
4 Identifying suitable outgrowers, RSPs in the target locations. Seed companies to identify community seed multipliers, seed distributors, 
and rural seed promoters within their network


key: chroma:document
string_value:
and rural seed promoters within their network
5 Weather risks: Flooding, drought, fire etc Encourage seed companies to procure insurance premium.
6 Policy Inertia and Fragmentation Addressed through an autonomous sector governance unit 
and regular multi-stakeholder platform activities.
7 Digital Divide Parallel in-person extension, device -sharing platforms, and 
language localization.


key: source
string_value:
/Users/olusojiapampa/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/Documents/Proposals/PropCom/PropCom+/propcom-rrca/data/corpus/20_intervention_B_climate_smart_seeds/Community Seed Multiplication IG_version 3_Current.pdf


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Portfolio
Intervention Title
Intervention Code
Intervention Pillar
Intervention starting date
Intervention closing date
Intervention Lead
MERL Manager
Core Market Actors - DD side
Core Market Actors - SS side
Support Market Actors
Policy Actors (Rules)
Seed Companies
Isa Usman
Clement Igben
Community Seed Producers
Feb-24
Page 1: Cover Page
Climate Smart Seeds and Seedlings 
Increasing certified CS seeds availability through scaling of the community seed multiplication (CSM) model
CSM
Pillar 1 - Scaling Markets
Financial Institutions, Mechanization services providers, extension service providers e.g Ignitia
Federal and State Government MDAs (National Agricultural Seed Council, National Varietal Release 
Committee), Research Institute


key: chroma:document
string_value:
ActorsSeed Companies
Financial Institutions
SHFs
Organic Fertilizer Producers and other 
Media (Information Dessimination)
EWS, Tailored Extension Service ProvidersMechanization Input/services providers
Gender Relevance
Climate Relevance
Nutrition Relevance
Poverty Relevance
Conflict Relevance
TypeProbablity
Background


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Gender Relevance
Climate Relevance
Nutrition Relevance
Poverty Relevance
Conflict Relevance
TypeProbablity
Background
Crowding-in of new seed companies leveraging the CSM modelIncreased investment from market actors and the availability of suitable financial products and services.Institutionalization of climate-smart seeds by the Government.NASC recruiting and deploying additional staff to monitor seed production in implementing stateDigital financial service providers stepping into the seeds market system to develop financial products & services for market actors.Insurance service providers  responding to production risks by developing products and services to suit the market.
Incentives


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Incentives
The community seed multiplication model seeks to address a persistent supply-side constraint in Nigeria’s seed sector: the insufficient production of climate-smart and biofortified seed varieties adapted to local agro-ecological conditions. By enabling seed companies to partner with smallholder farmers as outgrowers, the model expands the local multiplication of improved varieties, increasing overall market availability and reducing reliance on limited centralised production. This model aims to improve access to climate-smart and biofortified seeds through an outgrower model, which addresses the limited supply of adapted varieties.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
In the model, Seed companies engage smallholder farmers as seed producers to produce high-yielding, locally adapted, improved crop varieties. The seed companies support the farmers with capacity building in partnership with National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC), provide input on credit, on some cases provide access to farmland. At harvest, seed companies do a buy-back at a competative price, giving farmers a premium for participating, and out-growers sell the surplus to other farmers within their community, thereby boosting local availability, opening avenues for smallholder farmers to start seed-trading businesses, and offering farmers a 'basket' of crop varieties to utilise.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Agreements between seed companies and farmers vary according to context:•Formal contracts, often where companies seek to enforce clear performance expectations.•Delivery notes for inputs provided to farmers, which act as a semi-formal record of obligation.•Informal “gentleman’s agreements” negotiated with farmers and community leaders, where trust and local relationships are strong.This diversity in contracting mechanisms allows the model to adapt to different levels of market formality and farmer-company relationships.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Outgrowers may be selected from organised clusters (e.g., cooperatives or producer groups) or as individual farmers outside cluster structures, depending on company strategies and local realities. This dynamic approach enables companies to reach both structured and less-structured farming communities. By embedding seed multiplication closer to farming communities, the model increases the overall supply of climate-smart seed varieties, creates new livelihood opportunities for outgrowers (some of whom may evolve into community-level seed entrepreneurs), and reduces bottlenecks in Nigeria’s seed sector. Importantly, the model aligns incentives: seed companies gain reliable multiplication capacity, farmers access new income streams, and local markets benefit from greater availability of


key: chroma:document
string_value:
multiplication capacity, farmers access new income streams, and local markets benefit from greater availability of climate-smart seed options.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The Propcom Mai-Karfi (PM) programme had previously demonstrated the effectiveness of the "community seed multiplication" model, which significantly increased the supply of seeds suitable for the local climate. The programme worked with two private seed companies to increase their out-growers from 155 to 305, resulting in an increase in production from 650 metric tons of seeds to over 1,220 metric tons of seeds in one farming season. This improved the availability of adapted seed varieties and incomes for seed companies, out-growers, and smallholder farmers. (i) Systemic Change Expected
The Intervention or Business Model Description


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The Intervention or Business Model Description
(i) The ProblemCrop production contributes the most to agricultural GDP (21%) and accounts for 87.98% of the agricultural sector’s total output (NBS, 2024). The availability of high-quality locally adapted seed varieties is considered essential for crop production, as it contributes 50% to crop yields (NAERLS). However, less than 30 percent of smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa use improved seeds that have undergone a formal breeding process (Aljazeera opinion article, 2016).


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Nigeria has over 6 million hectares of land under permanent crop production (FAO 2020), with an estimated average seed rate of 50kg for crop production per hectare (maize, rice, millet, cowpea, and other staples). This creates a potential demand for over 300,000 MT of climate-smart seeds. However, only 88,000MT of certified seeds were produced (NASC 2022), meeting only 30% of the potential demand.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The poor adoption of high-yielding seed varieties is evident in the productivity gap of crops produced in Nigeria, placing an additional strain on the environment. Farmers typically resort to unsustainable practices such as deforestation or clearing marginal lands to compensate for lower yields and reduced agricultural productivity negatively impacts market growth, access to premium/export markets, employment, and overall economic growth.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Access to and use of adapted seeds offers farmers an affordable means of increasing yields and improving the efficiency and effectiveness of other inputs, such as agrochemicals, fertilisers, and mechanisation. Seeds set the limits to which all other agricultural inputs can contribute to crop production and are critical for transferring adaptive capacities to farmers.  
Market Failure: Inadequate Supply:Limited production and supply of CS seed varieties; Risk in investment from climate & security
Market Failure: Finance:Limited capital to scale production/seed multiplication; FI's limited  understanding of the financing needs & ROI for seed production and marketing; No suitable financing products for seed SMEs, and SMEs and SHF are perceived as high risk


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Governance Failure: Business enabling environment:Public institutions have the sole right to seed release; Slow varietal release due to onerous 4years testing requirements; Inadequate PPP for seed production; Existing policy stifle private seed breeders
Governance Failure: Institutional capacity:Weak human and financial capacity to implement seed policies; Inadequate resourcing of quality control measures & enforcement of regulation; Underfunding of research for new varieties
Governance Failure: Policy implementation/coordination:Trade protection measures limits seed availability; Govt. focus on supply of subsidized seeds displacing private sector, eroding market structures; Surveillance inefficiency – collusion between seed Coys. & Inspectors promoting proliferation of poor-quality seeds


key: chroma:document
string_value:
(ii) Targeted Actors and IncentivesRoles
Vision for the Market - Climate-Smart Seeds and SeedlingsTo catalyse the scale-up of a thriving seed market where;- Seed producers actively producing and distributing seeds to the last mile.- Adapted seed varieties are readily available to smallholder farmers.- The institutionalized adoption of bio-fortified seeds which improves productivity, yield and nutrition through the eradication of hidden hunger.- Available financial products targeted at seed production and multiplication.
Page 2: Intervention Overview


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page 2: Intervention Overview
Access to quality climate adapted varieties with the right education, can significantly improve women’s productivity and resilience. Where gender-related barriers are addressed, women prove to be good agents of behaviour change for climate messaging
Reduced poverty level of SHFs by improving productivity and yield while reducing the time and effort required for farmers to produce, thereby helping farmers increase efficiency and profitability
Unsustainable land management practices, compounded by poor use of inputs (seeds) impacts on livestock systems and soil management, resulting in increased migration, encroachment, and recurring conflict.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The cost of agricultural production is greatly impacted by climate change due to reliance on rain-fed production. Accelerating climate change puts pressure on agricultural production and food systems including biotic stress (increased pest, pathogens and resistance to existing control measures), and water and temperature stress with varied sensitivity across different crops, leading to higher crop failure
The adoption of climate-smart varieties leads to improved productivity and yields.
Intervention Relevance to programme impact areas
Consistent supply of certified seed, Increased revenue and income; and increased market share
Access to climate-smart seeds, additional streams of income


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Access to climate-smart seeds, additional streams of income
Revenue from sales and service provisionSales of simplified mechanizartion implements, solar powered irrigation system
Provide alternative fertilizer to compliment inorganic fertilizersRevenue from sales of inputs
Provide financing for for expansion of climate smart community seed multiplication Expanded credit portfolio; Increased turnover
(ii) Market and Governance Failures/Constraints Targeted
Increase the supply of certified climate smart seeds through community seed multiplication
Act as community seed multipliers
Risk Description


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Act as community seed multipliers
Risk Description
(iii) Related InterventionsScaling Rural Seed Promoter (RSP) models (P1)Strengthen the regulatory environment for seed certification by strengthening key industry bodies e.g., National Agricultural Seed Council (NASC) (P3)Support coordination with other donor organisations to drive advocacy and effective targeting (P3).
Airing of marketing and awareness creation contents, provide platform for the RSP to market their productsRevenue from airtime and jingle slots
Revenue from service provisionProvide contextual season climate prediction and tailored advisory
Risks Assessment and MitigationMitigation plan


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page 
3: List 
S/n Name of Partner Actor category Market System 
Alignment
1 Norman Zamani Limited Agri-Input Distributor Core Market Actor - 
SS side
2 Girmal Agriculture 
Consultancy Limited
Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
3 SeedProject Co Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
4 Premier Seed Nigeria LimitedSeed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
5 Value Seeds Ltd Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
6 Asmau Seeds Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
7 AgriSeedCo Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
8 HASI Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
9 Ahalson General EnterprisesSeed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
10 Tecni Seeds Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
11 Gold Agric Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
Page


key: chroma:document
string_value:
SS side
11 Gold Agric Seed Producer Core Market Actor - 
SS side
Page 
S/n Name of Actor Program Name Funder/Donor


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1 NationalCounter-Terrorism
Centre (NCTC) in
collaboration with
InternationalInstitutueof
Tropical Agriculture (IITA)
Rehabilitation And 
Reintegration of Ex-
Combatants and Victims 
of Insurgency For 
Regional Peace and 
Stability
European Union
2 International Institutue of 
Tropical Agriculture (IITA)
Tadamon 2.0 Islamic 
Development Bank 
(IsDB)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
3 GIZ Agriculture Value Chain 
Facility and 
Transformative 
Agricultural Systems for 
Rural Development (EU-
VACE-TARED) 
European Union
4 The Africa Enterprise 
Challenge Fund (AECF)
Investing in Women in 
Nigeria (IIW-Nigeria)
Global Affairs 
Canada (GAC)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5 International Fertilizer 
Development Centre 
(IFDC)
Horti-Nigeria Embassy of the 
Kingdom of the 
Netherlands (EKN)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partner Engagement 
Mechanism
Partnership purpose Partnership start 
date
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of climate-adapted seed through 
the "Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations through the "Rural 
Seed Promoters" model
01 January 2024
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of climate-adapted seed through 
the "Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations through the "Rural 
Seed Promoters" model
20 December 2023
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of climate-adapted seed through 
the "Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations through the "Rural 
Seed Promoters" model
26 June 2024
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of climate-adapted seed through


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Seed Promoters" model
26 June 2024
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of climate-adapted seed through 
the "Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations through the "Rural 
Seed Promoters" model
01 August 2024
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of climate-adapted seed through 
the "Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations through the "Rural 
Seed Promoters" model using Evs
01 October 2024
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of climate-adapted seed through 
the "Community Seed Multiplication" model
25 November 2024
Signed Agreement
Signed Agreement Scaling access to climate adapted seed varieties 
through strengthening existing channels and 
explore the use of "Zai pits" as an innovation 
technique in Katsina State.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
explore the use of "Zai pits" as an innovation 
technique in Katsina State.
17 July 2025
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of biofortified seed through the 
"Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of biofortified seed through the 
"Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations
Signed Agreement Scaling the supply of biofortified seed through the 
"Community Seed Multiplication" model and 
distribution to rural locations
Program Duration Actor 
Focus/Activities
Year 2


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2025-2030 •30% increase in 
average smallholder 
income across pilot 
communities.
•Formation of at 
least 1000 
agro-enterprises, 
with 40% youth and 
women 
participation.
•Measurable 
reduction in 
extremist 
recruitment 
indicators (e.g., 
community 
surveys)by year 3.
•Empowerment of 
over 50,000 
individuals with 
sustainable 
livelihoods.
•Improved 
community stability 
and reduction in 
recruitment into 
violent groups.
•Strengthened 2025-2030 • Increase in 
agricultural 
productivity.
• Increase in farmer 
resilience
• Increase in inputs 
efficiency
• Increase in 
Gender inclusion
• Increase in Net 
Return


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2024-2028 • Strengthen Cocoa, 
dairy, feed for dairy 
(Maize, Sorghum, 
Soyabeans) 
Tomato and Ginger 
value chains.
• Adopt an 
integrated value 
chain approach that 
will focus on 
innovation, 
inclusivity and 
sustainability.
2024-2028 • Improved 
business 
performance of 
climate smart, 
women owned/led 
SMEs and 
Cooperatives and 
sustainability of 
investees initiatives
• Increased access 
to economic 
opportunities for 
women in climate-
smart agriculture 
value chains in 
Kano state.
• Improved enabling 
environment and 
reduced systemic 
gender inequalities 
that women 
entrepreneurs and 
farmers face.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2021-2025 • Double 
smallholder 
productivity and 
income.
• Achieve 
ecologically 
sustainable land 
use and climate-
resilient farms.
• Create direct jobs 
supported by 
private sector 
development 
programs.
• Reach Dutch and 
local businesses 
with a supported 
plan to invest, trade, 
or provide services.
• Improve access to 
finance and make 
financing 
infrastructure more 
inclusive and 
effective
• Improve access to 
digital solutions.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partnership end 
date
Output level target Contract total Propcom+ 
Contribution
31 January 2025300 unique community 
seed producers
3,500 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 27,740,000 NGN 19,940,000
31 January 202560 unique community seed 
producers
3,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 16,730,000 NGN 14,440,000
31 March 20251000 unique community 
seed producers
6,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 299,700,000 NGN 27,700,000 
31 July 20262000 unique community 
seed producers
20,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 439,800,000 NGN 302,650,000
31 July 2027200 unique community 
seed producers
10,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 588,382,389 NGN 373,882,389
31 March 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 24,220,800 NGN 16,400,000
31 March 2026
31 March 2026


key: chroma:document
string_value:
31 March 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 24,220,800 NGN 16,400,000
31 March 2026
31 March 2026
17 February 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 32,155,469 NGN 24,734,976
17 February 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 32,155,469 NGN 24,734,976
17 February 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 32,155,469 NGN 24,734,976
Intervention States
Year 2


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partner ContributionPartnership start 
date
Partnership end 
date
Output level target
NGN 7,800,000 01 January 2024 31 January 2025300 unique community 
seed producers
3,500 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 2,290,000############## 31 January 202560 unique community 
seed producers
3,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 272,000,000 26 June 2024 31 March 20251000 unique community 
seed producers
6,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 137,150,000 01 August 2024 31 July 20262000 unique community 
seed producers
20,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 214,500,000 01 October 2024 31 July 2027200 unique community 
seed producers
10,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 7,820,800############## 31 March 2025200 unique community 
seed producers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
10,000 unique farmers 
purchasing seeds
NGN 7,820,800############## 31 March 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 7,420,493 17 February 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 7,420,493 17 February 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
NGN 7,420,493 17 February 2025200 unique community 
seed producers
Actor 
Focus/Activities
Intervention 
States
Year 3Year 2


key: chroma:document
string_value:
•30% increase in 
average 
smallholder 
income across 
pilot communities.
•Formation of at 
least 1000 
agro-enterprises, 
with 40% youth 
and women 
participation.
•Measurable 
reduction in 
extremist 
recruitment 
indicators (e.g., 
community 
surveys)by year 
3.
•Empowerment 
of over 50,000 
individuals with 
sustainable 
livelihoods.
•Improved 
community 
stability and 
reduction in 
Insurgency and 
Banditry affected 
States
• Increase in 
agricultural 
productivity.
• Increase in 
farmer resilience
• Increase in 
inputs efficiency
• Increase in 
Gender inclusion
• Increase in Net 
Return
Adamawa, Borno, 
Yobe and Gombe 
States.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Strengthen 
Cocoa, dairy, 
feed for dairy 
(Maize, Sorghum, 
Soyabeans) 
Tomato and 
Ginger value 
chains.
• Adopt an 
integrated value 
chain approach 
that will focus on 
innovation, 
inclusivity and 
sustainability.
Kano, Kaduna, 
Kebbi, Ondo, 
Oyo, Cross River 
and Plateau 
States
• Improved 
business 
performance of 
climate smart, 
women owned/led 
SMEs and 
Cooperatives and 
sustainability of 
investees 
initiatives
• Increased 
access to 
economic 
opportunities for 
women in climate-
smart agriculture 
value chains in 
Kano state.
• Improved 
enabling 
environment and 
reduced systemic 
gender 
inequalities that 
women 
entrepreneurs 
and farmers face.
Kano State


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Double 
smallholder 
productivity and 
income.
• Achieve 
ecologically 
sustainable land 
use and climate-
resilient farms.
• Create direct 
jobs supported by 
private sector 
development 
programs.
• Reach Dutch 
and local 
businesses with a 
supported plan to 
invest, trade, or 
provide services.
• Improve access 
to finance and 
make financing 
infrastructure 
more inclusive 
and effective
• Improve access 
to digital solutions.
Kano, Kaduna, 
Ogun and Oyo 
States


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Contract total Propcom+ 
Contribution
Partner 
Contribution
Partnership start date
NGN 27,740,000 NGN 19,940,000 NGN 7,800,000
NGN 16,730,000 NGN 14,440,000 NGN 2,290,000
NGN 299,700,000 NGN 27,700,000 NGN 272,000,000 
NGN 439,800,000NGN 302,650,000NGN 137,150,000
NGN 588,382,389NGN 373,882,389NGN 214,500,000
NGN 24,220,800 NGN 16,400,000 NGN 7,820,800
Addition
Addition
NGN 32,155,469 NGN 24,734,976 NGN 7,420,493HarvestPlus
NGN 32,155,469 NGN 24,734,976 NGN 7,420,493HarvestPlus
NGN 32,155,469 NGN 24,734,976 NGN 7,420,493HarvestPlus
Actor Focus/Activities
Year 3 Year 4


key: chroma:document
string_value:
•30% increase in 
average smallholder 
income across pilot 
communities.
•Formation of at least 
1000 agro-enterprises, 
with 40% youth and 
women participation.
•Measurable reduction 
in extremist recruitment 
indicators (e.g., 
community surveys)by 
year 3.
•Empowerment of over 
50,000 individuals with 
sustainable livelihoods.
•Improved community 
stability and reduction in 
recruitment into violent 
groups.
•Strengthened national 
and regional strategies 
for peacebuilding 
through non-kinetic 
approaches.
• Increase in agricultural 
productivity.
• Increase in farmer 
resilience
• Increase in inputs 
efficiency
• Increase in Gender 
inclusion
• Increase in Net Return


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Strengthen Cocoa, 
dairy, feed for dairy 
(Maize, Sorghum, 
Soyabeans) Tomato 
and Ginger value 
chains.
• Adopt an integrated 
value chain approach 
that will focus on 
innovation, inclusivity 
and sustainability.
• Improved business 
performance of climate 
smart, women 
owned/led SMEs and 
Cooperatives and 
sustainability of 
investees initiatives
• Increased access to 
economic opportunities 
for women in climate-
smart agriculture value 
chains in Kano state.
• Improved enabling 
environment and 
reduced systemic 
gender inequalities that 
women entrepreneurs 
and farmers face.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Double smallholder 
productivity and 
income.
• Achieve ecologically 
sustainable land use 
and climate-resilient 
farms.
• Create direct jobs 
supported by private 
sector development 
programs.
• Reach Dutch and local 
businesses with a 
supported plan to 
invest, trade, or provide 
services.
• Improve access to 
finance and make 
financing infrastructure 
more inclusive and 
effective
• Improve access to 
digital solutions.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partnership end date Output level target Contract total Propcom+ Contribution
Intervention States
Year 4


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Intervention links with RSP intervention. Impact on RSPs and farmers 
will be tracked there. 
Market Trigger Market Uptake
MU1: 
Community seed producerscultivate foundation 
seeds using inputs recieved from the seed companies
CT= 13,360, CA = 12,909, YT = 10,000, YA =9,433 
EP1:
Communityseed producersachieve expected 
optimum yield of certifiedclimate smart seeds.
Market 
Performanc
RSP InterventionSeed companies distribute anincreased supply ofcertified seeds to farmers through the RSP intervention, 
and other channels
MT2:
Seed companies provideinputs (foundation seeds, 
fertilizer, etc) to community seed producers
CT=10 , CA = 10, YT = 5, YA = 5
Direct
EP2a: 
Community seed producers sell 
harvested certified
seeds to seed companies
Enterprise/SHF 
Performance
MT3:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
EP2a: 
Community seed producers sell 
harvested certified
seeds to seed companies
Enterprise/SHF 
Performance
MT3:
Seed companies extension agents provide continous 
monitoring and advisoriesto the seed producers 
throughout the seed production life cycle.
CT= 13,360 CA =12,909 , YT = 10000, YA =9,433
MT4:
NASC carry
sites throughout the seed production life cycle.
CT=10 , CA = 10, YT = 5, YA =5 
MU2: 
Community seed producersadopt best practices for seed 
production 
CT= , CA = , YT = , YA = 
EP2b: 
Community seed producers sell 
harvested certified
seeds to other farmers
MP1: 
Seed companies experience better 
returns
acquiring certified seeds


key: chroma:document
string_value:
CT Cumulative Target Update targets and Actuals from Quarter to Year
CA Cumulative Actual
YT Year Target
YA Year Actual
Results-Level Definitions
Activities - rows 1-2: What P+ will do
Activities - rows 3-4: What the private sector partners (BDSPs and FIs) will do preparatory to introducing the market trigger
Activities Market Trigger
A2:
P+ signs partnership agreement with selected seed 
companies best positioned to scale the CSM model.
CT= 10, CA = 10, YT = 5, YA = 5
MT1:
Seed companies train community seed producerson best practices for 
production of climate smart seeds, including seeds for women-centric crops.
CT= 13,360 CA = 12,909 YT = 10,000 YA = 9,433
A4:
Seed companies identify and recruit community seed producers (in-growers, 
out-growers).


key: chroma:document
string_value:
A4:
Seed companies identify and recruit community seed producers (in-growers, 
out-growers).
CT= 13,360 CA = 12,909 YT = 10,000 YA = 9,433
A1a:
Propcom+ (P+) identifies suitable seed companies and introduces the 
community seed multiplication (CSM) model to them.
CT= 10, CA = 10, YT = 5, YA = 5
A1b:
P+ works with interested seed companies to co
implementation
CT= 10, CA = 10, YT = 5, YA = 5
CT=10 , CA = 10, YT = 5, YA = 5
Constraint Summary (targeted market failures): 
Market Failure: Inadequate Supply: Limited production and supply of CS seed varieties
A3:
Seed companies identify target locations (sites) and farmer clusters (as 
applicable) for community seed multiplication.
CT=8 , CA = 8, YT = 8, YA =8 
throughout the seed production life cycle.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
applicable) for community seed multiplication.
CT=8 , CA = 8, YT = 8, YA =8 
throughout the seed production life cycle.
CT= 13,360 CA =12,909 , YT = 10000, YA =9,433


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Market Trigger: A new or improved opportunity that is intended to benefit the target group (in this case, the agribusinesses). The market trigger is generally offered by a sustainable player in the country. For example, an agricultural input supplier offering better seeds to farmers, a government agency building a new road, a financial service provider offering better savings services for rural people or a government agency improving regulations for exporting agricultural produce.
Market Uptake: The use of a new opportunity (the Market Trigger) by the target group, in this case the agribusinesses. Continuing the examples from above, farmers buying new seeds, people using the new road, rural people opening savings accounts or exporters operating under the new regulations.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Market Performance: Changes (at the partner private-sector level) that will occur if the market uptake is sustained
Enterprise Performance: Changes (at the target group level - the agribusinesses uptaking the trigger) that will occur if they continue to uptake and respond to improvements in the market performance level


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Key Assumptions
2)  Community seed producers get good returns from producing seeds for the seed companies
3)  Community seed producers don’t side sell
1) Seed companies have access to climate-smart foundation seeds to give to the community seed producers.
= 13,360, CA = 12,909, YT = 10,000, YA =9,433 
ID2:
Non
engaged to multiply certified seeds achieve 
expected optimum yield
MP2:
Partner Seed companies expand 
their operations to newgeographies 
using the CSMbusiness model. 
EP2a: 
Community seed producers sell 
harvested certifiedclimate smart 
seeds to seed companies
Seed companies distribute an
intervention, and other channels
EP3: 
Community seed producers experience 
increase in income dueto higher productivty  
and buy-back from seed companies


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Community seed producers experience 
increase in income dueto higher productivty  
and buy-back from seed companies
Seed companies extension agents provide continous 
monitoring and advisoriesto the seed producers 
throughout the seed production life cycle.
= 13,360 CA =12,909 , YT = 10000, YA =9,433
:
NASC carryout scheduled inspections on seed production 
sites throughout the seed production life cycle.
=10 , CA = 10, YT = 5, YA =5 
EP2b: 
Community seed producers sell 
harvested certifiedclimate smart 
seeds to other farmers
MP1: 
Seed companies experience better 
returnsfrom lowered costs of 
acquiring certified seeds
ID3
Non
harvested certified
seed companies
Area Cultivated
CT 13,360 CA 11,968.52


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Attribution Strategy
What the private sector partners (BDSPs and FIs) will do preparatory to introducing the market trigger
4)  Availability of experienced and willing Seed Producers in locations targeted by seed companies
Seed companies (Profitability): Before and After Comparison With Opinion (BACO). Changes in outcome will be tracked by comparing profitability, 
cost of seed production before and after adopting CSM.
Outgrower Outcomes (Yield/Income):  Before and After Comparison With Opinion (BACO). Growing seeds is not a common farm enterprise due to 
the technical requirements. Seed outgrowers are often engaged by seed companies who support them to produce the required seeds. Although


key: chroma:document
string_value:
various factors can affect seed yield and income afterwards, BACO is sufficient for measuring attribution, as it is difficult to find suitable comparison 
groups (other seed growers who were not supported by the partner seed companies).
5) Seed companies provide quality inputs in a timely manner
6) Adverse climate conditions, pandemics, natural disasters capable of affecting productivity and resilience negatively do not occur.
7)The security situation does not deteriorate further and limit smallholder farmers engagement in agricultural activities. 
8) Actions of government and other programmes do not result in significant market distortion which prevents market players from enacting positive 
and sustainable changes that benefit poor women and men in the long term.
on best practices for


key: chroma:document
string_value:
and sustainable changes that benefit poor women and men in the long term.
on best practices for 
centric crops.
Seed companies identify and recruit community seed producers (in-growers, 
A1b:
P+ works with interested seed companies to co-create 
implementationstrategiesto expand theCSMmodel.
= 10, CA = 10, YT = 5, YA = 5
Constraint Summary (targeted market failures): 
Market Failure: Inadequate Supply: Limited production and supply of CS seed varieties
Seed companies identify target locations (sites) and farmer clusters (as 
throughout the seed production life cycle.
= 13,360 CA =12,909 , YT = 10000, YA =9,433


key: chroma:document
string_value:
A new or improved opportunity that is intended to benefit the target group (in this case, the agribusinesses). The market trigger is generally offered by a sustainable player in the country. For example, an agricultural input supplier offering better seeds to farmers, a government agency building a new road, a financial service provider offering better savings services for rural people or a government agency improving regulations for exporting agricultural produce.
The use of a new opportunity (the Market Trigger) by the target group, in this case the agribusinesses. Continuing the examples from above, farmers buying new seeds, people using the new road, rural people opening savings accounts or exporters operating under the new regulations.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Changes (at the partner private-sector level) that will occur if the market uptake is sustained
Changes (at the target group level - the agribusinesses uptaking the trigger) that will occur if they continue to uptake and respond to improvements in the market performance level


key: chroma:document
string_value:
•
Key Assumptions
2)  Community seed producers get good returns from producing seeds for the seed companies
3)  Community seed producers don’t side sell
1) Seed companies have access to climate-smart foundation seeds to give to the community seed producers.
ID2:
Non-targetedcommunity seed producers 
engaged to multiply certified seeds achieve 
expected optimum yield
Indirect
ID1:
Non-targeted seed companies crowd in and 
start replicating the CSM model 
ID4:Non Partner seed companies buy certified seeds and 
sell them
RSP Intervention
Seed companies distribute anincreased supply ofcertified seeds to farmers through the RSP 
intervention, and other channels
ID3: 
Non-targeted community seed producers sell 
harvested certifiedclimate smart seeds to 
seed companies


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Attribution Strategy
4)  Availability of experienced and willing Seed Producers in locations targeted by seed companies
Seed companies (Profitability): Before and After Comparison With Opinion (BACO). Changes in outcome will be tracked by comparing profitability, 
cost of seed production before and after adopting CSM.
Outgrower Outcomes (Yield/Income):  Before and After Comparison With Opinion (BACO). Growing seeds is not a common farm enterprise due to 
the technical requirements. Seed outgrowers are often engaged by seed companies who support them to produce the required seeds. Although 
various factors can affect seed yield and income afterwards, BACO is sufficient for measuring attribution, as it is difficult to find suitable comparison


key: chroma:document
string_value:
groups (other seed growers who were not supported by the partner seed companies).
5) Seed companies provide quality inputs in a timely manner
6) Adverse climate conditions, pandemics, natural disasters capable of affecting productivity and resilience negatively do not occur.
7)The security situation does not deteriorate further and limit smallholder farmers engagement in agricultural activities. 
8) Actions of government and other programmes do not result in significant market distortion which prevents market players from enacting positive 
and sustainable changes that benefit poor women and men in the long term.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Changes (at the target group level - the agribusinesses uptaking the trigger) that will occur if they continue to uptake and respond to improvements in the market performance level


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1) Seed companies have access to climate-smart foundation seeds to give to the community seed producers.
Non Partner seed companies buy certified seeds and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
4)  Availability of experienced and willing Seed Producers in locations targeted by seed companies
Seed companies (Profitability): Before and After Comparison With Opinion (BACO). Changes in outcome will be tracked by comparing profitability, 
cost of seed production before and after adopting CSM.
Outgrower Outcomes (Yield/Income):  Before and After Comparison With Opinion (BACO). Growing seeds is not a common farm enterprise due to 
the technical requirements. Seed outgrowers are often engaged by seed companies who support them to produce the required seeds. Although 
various factors can affect seed yield and income afterwards, BACO is sufficient for measuring attribution, as it is difficult to find suitable comparison


key: chroma:document
string_value:
A new or improved opportunity that is intended to benefit the target group (in this case, the agribusinesses). The market trigger is generally offered by a sustainable player in the country. For example, an agricultural input supplier offering better seeds to farmers, a government agency building a new road, a financial service provider offering better savings services for rural people or a government agency improving regulations for exporting agricultural produce.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Cost Factor Maize Rice Millet Sorghum Cowpea
Total Cost of Production / ha 519361 535286 365530 357765 437577
Expected Yield / ha 2.4 2.2 1.2 1.4 1
Expected Unit Price / MT 848000 800000 750000 894000 1866000
Expected Premium Unit Price / MT (+10%) 932800 880000 825000 983400 2052600
Total Expected Income/ ha 2238720 1936000 990000 1376760 2052600
Expected profit/ha 1,719,359 1,400,714 624,470 1,018,995 1,615,023
% Return on Investment 331.05 261.68 170.84 284.82 369.08
Cost Factor Maize Rice Millet Sorghum Cowpea
Total Cost of Production / ha 519361 535286 365530 357765 437577
Expected Yield / ha 2.2 2 1 1.2 0.8
Expected Unit Price / MT 848000 800000 750000 894000 1866000
Total Expected Income/ ha 1865600 1600000 750000 1072800 1492800


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Total Expected Income/ ha 1865600 1600000 750000 1072800 1492800
Expected profit/ha 1,346,239 1,064,714 384,470 715,035 1,055,223
% Return on Investment 259.21 198.91 105.18 199.86 241.15
% ROI
Seed 
Growers
Grain 
Growers
Seed 
Growers
Grain 
Growers
Seed 
Growers
Maize 331.05259.2138.35 15.71 112.20
Rice 261.68198.9138.62 14.56 103.18
Millet 170.84105.1827.02 -3.77 69.42
Sorghum 284.82199.8693.64 50.89 124.99
Cowpea 369.08241.1586.14 38.45 110.41
Groundnut 508.44374.11141.8988.49 205.33
Soybean 297.55201.1786.66 38.84 115.12
2024 2025 2026
2024
Economics of Production for selected crops without contract agreement (Grain Growers)
Smallholder Farmers (Seed Outgrowers)
2024
 2025 Economics of Production for selected crops with contract agreement between SHF and Seed Companies


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Seed Companies Categories Purchas
e Price
Addition
al Cost
Volume 
of Seed 
Traded
Seed Companies Importing
Seed Companies Producing Themselves
Seed Companies Producing through Outgrowers
Seed Companies Segment


key: chroma:document
string_value:
GroundnutSoybeanSourceNotes Maize Rice Millet Sorghum Cowpea
430283 398444 PowerPoint Templates659,720 689,575 431258 411765 422,538
1.4 1.2 PowerPoint Templates2.5 2.2 1.2 1.4 1.1
1700000 1200000 AFEX | Home 331,910 395,000 415,000 517,750 650,000
1870000 1320000 365101 434500 456500 569525 715000
2618000 1584000 912752.5 955900 547800 797335 786500
2,187,717 1,185,556 253,033 266,325 116,542 385,570 363,962
508.44 297.55 38.35 38.62 27.02 93.64 86.14
GroundnutSoybeanSourceNotes Maize Rice Millet Sorghum Cowpea
430283 398444 PowerPoint Templates659,720 689,575 431258 411765 422,538
1.2 1 PowerPoint Templates2.3 2 1 1.2 0.9
1700000 1200000 AFEX | Home 331,910 395,000 415,000 517,750 650,000
2040000 1200000 763393 790000 415000 621300 585000


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1700000 1200000 AFEX | Home 331,910 395,000 415,000 517,750 650,000
2040000 1200000 763393 790000 415000 621300 585000
1,609,717 801,556 103,673 100,425 -16,258 209,535 162,462
374.11 201.17 15.71 14.56 -3.77 50.89 38.45
Grain 
Growers
77.48
67.92
28.35
75.32
56.51
137.92
60.01
2026
2024 2025
Economics of Production for selected crops without contract agreement (Grain Growers)
2024 2025
 2025 Economics of Production for selected crops with contract agreement between SHF and Seed Companies
-100.00
0.0 0
10 0.00
20 0.00
30 0.00
40 0.00
50 0.00
60 0.00
Seed Growers Grain Growers Seed Growers Grain Growers Seed Growers
20 24 20 25 20 26
ROI for Seed Outgrowers Compared to Grain Outgrowers
Maize Rice Millet Sorghum Cowpea Grou ndn ut Soybean


key: chroma:document
string_value:
GroundnutSoybeanSourceNotes Maize Rice Millet
604,816 536223 PowerPoint TemplatesIncluding 559,720 589,575 401258
1.4 1.1 PowerPoint TemplatesDue to access to inputs, trainings received and other monitoring visit from NASC, yield is always higher during seed production2.5 2.2 1.2
950,000 827,200 AFEX | Home17/01/2025431,910 495,000 515,000
1045000 909920 475101 544500 566500
1463000 1000912 1187752.5 1197900 679800
858,184 464,689 628,033 608,325 278,542
141.89 86.66 112.20 103.18 69.42
GroundnutSoybeanSourceNotes Maize Rice Millet
604,816 536223 PowerPoint TemplatesIncluding 559,720 589,575 401258
1.2 0.9 PowerPoint Templates 2.3 2 1
950,000 827,200 AFEX | Home17/01/2025431,910 495,000 515,000
1140000 744480 993393 990000 515000
535,184 208,257 433,673 400,425 113,742


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1140000 744480 993393 990000 515000
535,184 208,257 433,673 400,425 113,742
88.49 38.84 77.48 67.92 28.35
2025
Economics of Production for selected crops without contract agreement (Grain Growers)
2026
2026
2025
 2025 Economics of Production for selected crops with contract agreement between SHF and Seed Companies
Seed Growers Grain Growers
20 26
ROI for Seed Outgrowers Compared to Grain Outgrowers
Soybean


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Sorghum Cowpea Groundnut Soybean Source Notes
381765 402,538 554,816 506223 We are anticipating a drop in prices of agricultural inputs 
1.4 1.1 1.4 1.1 Yield might remain the same if not less since farmers will try to be conservative in investing heavily due low prices of produce
557,750 700,000 1,100,000 900,000 Since current market prices are lower than imported prices, the local companies will be purchasing from the local markets triggering high demand and resultant increase in local prices
613525 770000 1210000 990000
858935 847000 1694000 1089000
477,170 444,462 1,139,184 582,777
124.99 110.41 205.33 115.12
Sorghum Cowpea Groundnut Soybean Source Notes
381765 402,538 554,816 506223
1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9
557,750 700,000 1,100,000 900,000
669300 630000 1320000 810000


key: chroma:document
string_value:
381765 402,538 554,816 506223
1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9
557,750 700,000 1,100,000 900,000
669300 630000 1320000 810000
287,535 227,462 765,184 303,777
75.32 56.51 137.92 60.01
2026
2026


key: chroma:document
string_value:
We are anticipating a drop in prices of agricultural inputs 
Yield might remain the same if not less since farmers will try to be conservative in investing heavily due low prices of produce
Since current market prices are lower than imported prices, the local companies will be purchasing from the local markets triggering high demand and resultant increase in local prices


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Yield might remain the same if not less since farmers will try to be conservative in investing heavily due low prices of produce
Since current market prices are lower than imported prices, the local companies will be purchasing from the local markets triggering high demand and resultant increase in local prices


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Since current market prices are lower than imported prices, the local companies will be purchasing from the local markets triggering high demand and resultant increase in local prices


key: chroma:document
string_value:
ID3 Number of non-partner seed companies buying certified seeds
Buy-back percentage
Selling cost per Kg
Number of non-targeted community seed producers engaged to produce 
Average yield 
ID1 Number of non-targeted seed companies crowding-in
MP2 Number of partner seed companies expanding CSM model to new 
MP1 Cost savings (Cost/kg of seed using the CSM model - Cost/kg of seed 
Number of community seed producers experiencing increase in income 
(Male and Female)
Number of community seed producers experiencing at least more than 
15% income increase (Male and Female)
Percentage of produced seed sold to other farmers
Selling cost per Kg
Buy-back percentage
Selling cost per Kg
EP1 Yield per hectare for certified seeds
MU2 Number of community seed producers adoptiing best practices (Male and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
EP1 Yield per hectare for certified seeds
MU2 Number of community seed producers adoptiing best practices (Male and 
Female)
Total area cultivated for seed production
Number of NASC inspection visits per seed company
Number of seed companies received NASC inspection visit
Number of community seed producer received extension services (Male 
and Female)
Number of seed companies provided extension services
Number of community seed producer received inputs (Male and Female)
Number of seed companies provided inputs
MT1 Number of community seed producers trained (Male and Female)
Number of seed companies recruiting community seed producers
Number of community seed producers recruited (Male and Female)
A3 Number of target locations identified


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Number of community seed producers recruited (Male and Female)
A3 Number of target locations identified
A2 Number of seed companies signed partnership agreement
A1b Number of seed companies engaged in co-creating implemetation plans
A1a Number of seed companies identified
MT4
EP2
EP2a
EP3
A4
MT3
MT2
Box #Quantitative indicators 
MU1
ID3
ID2
Number of community seed producers that cultivated foundation seeds 
(Male and Female)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Target  Actual 
#                           -                             -   
%                           -                             -   
NGN                           -                             -   
#                           -                             -   
MT/Hectar
e
                          -                             -   
#                           -                             -   
#                           -                             -   
NGN                           -                             -   
#                           -                             -   
#                           -                             -   
%                           -                             -   
NGN                           -                             -


key: chroma:document
string_value:
NGN                           -                             -   
%                           -                             -   
NGN                           -                             -   
MT/Hectar
e
                          -                             -   
#                           -                             -   
Total                  13,360                  12,909 
Male                    6,680                    7,775 
Female                    6,680                    5,134 
Hectares                  13,360            11,968.52 
                          -                             -   
                         10                           -   
                 13,360                  12,909 
                         10                          10


key: chroma:document
string_value:
13,360                  12,909 
                         10                          10 
                 13,360                  12,909 
                         10                          10 
#                  13,360                  12,909 
                         10                          10 
                 13,360                  12,909 
#                           -                             -   
#                          10                           -   
#                          10                           -   
#                          10                           -   
#
#
#
#
Unit Baseline 
values/Notes
#
Disaggregation  Cumulative


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Year 2 (2025) Year 3 (2026) Year 4 (2027)
3360 10000
1680 5000
1680 5000
3360 10000
5 5
3360 10000
5 5
3360 10000
5 5
3360 10000
5 5
3360 10000
5 5
5 5
5 5
Source of 
information 
(Targets)
Year targets Assumptions


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Year 2 (2025)  Year 3 (2026)  Year 4 (2027) % Difference
                   3,476                    9,433 P+ Dashboard3%
                   2,044                    5,731 P+ Dashboard22%
                   1,432                    3,702 P+ Dashboard-15%
             2,449.20              9,519.32 P+ Dashboard-27%
-100%
                   3,476                    9,433 P+ Dashboard3%
                           5                            5 P+ Dashboard0%
                   3,476                    9,433 P+ Dashboard3%
                           5                            5 P+ Dashboard0%
                   3,476                    9,433 P+ Dashboard3%
                           5                            5 P+ Dashboard0%
                   3,476                    9,433 3%
-100%
-100%


key: chroma:document
string_value:
3,476                    9,433 3%
-100%
-100%
-100%
Year 2 (2025)
Variance description Source of 
information 
(Actuals)
 Year actuals


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Remark % Difference Remark % Difference
-6%
15%
-26%
-5%
-100%
-6%
0%
-6%
0%
-6%
0%
-6%
-100%
-100%
-100%
Year 2 (2025) Year 3 (2026) Year 4 (2027)
Variance description


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Box # Results Chain Statements
ID3 Non Partner seed companies buy certified 
seeds and sell them
EP2a Community seed producers sell harvested 
certified climate smart seeds to seed 
companies
Community seed producers achieve 
expected optimum yield of certified climate 
smart seeds.
MP2 Partner Seed companies expand their 
operations to new geographies using the 
CSM business model. 
ID1
Seed companies experience better returns 
from lowered costs of acquiring certified 
seeds
MP1
Community seed producers cultivate 
foundation seeds using inputs recieved 
from the seed companies
ID2 Non-targeted community seed producers 
engaged to multiply certified seeds 
achieve expected optimum yield
EP1
MU2 Community seed producers adopt best 
practices for seed production


key: chroma:document
string_value:
achieve expected optimum yield
EP1
MU2 Community seed producers adopt best 
practices for seed production 
EP3 Community seed producers experience 
increase in income due to higher 
productivty  and buy-back from seed 
companies
MU1
Non-targeted seed companies crowd in 
and start replicating the CSM model 
ID3 Non-targeted community seed producers 
sell harvested certified climate smart 
seeds to seed companies
EP2 Community seed producers sell harvested 
certified climate smart seeds to other 
farmers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
A2 Propcom+ signs partnership agreement 
with selected seed companies best 
positioned to scale the CSM model 
A1b P+ works with interested seed companies 
to co-create implementation strategies to 
expand the CSM model 
A1a Propcom+ (P+) identifies suitable seed 
companies and introduces the community 
seed multiplication (CSM) model to them.
A4 Seed companies identify and recruit 
community seed producers (in-growers, 
out growers)
Seed companies provide inputs 
(foundation seeds, fertilizer, etc) to 
community seed producers 
MT1
Community seed producers cultivate 
foundation seeds using inputs recieved 
from the seed companies
NASC carry out scheduled inspections on 
seed production sites throughout the seed 
production life cycle.
Seed companies train community seed


key: chroma:document
string_value:
seed production sites throughout the seed 
production life cycle.
Seed companies train community seed 
producers on best practices for production 
of climate smart seeds, including seeds for 
women-centric crops
MU1
MT2
MT3
MT4
A3 Seed companies identify target locations 
(sites) and farmer clusters (as applicable) 
for community seed multiplication.
Seed companies extension agents 
provide continous monitoring and 
advisories to the seed producers 
throughout the seed production life cycle.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Quantitative indicators Unit
Number of non-partner seed companies buying certified 
seeds
#
Selling cost per Kg NGN
Average yield MT/Hectar
e
Number of community seed producers experiencing increase 
in income (Male and Female)
#
Number of community seed producers experiencing at least 
more than 15% income increase (Male and Female)
#
Percentage of produced seed sold to other farmers %
Selling cost per Kg NGN
Buy-back percentage %
Selling cost per Kg NGN
#
#
Number of partner seed companies expanding CSM model to 
new geographies
Cost savings (Cost/kg of seed using the CSM model - Cost/kg 
of seed importing seeds or alternatives means of sourcing)
Yield per hectare for certified seeds
Number of non-targeted community seed producers engaged 
to produce certified seeds (Male and Female)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Number of non-targeted community seed producers engaged 
to produce certified seeds (Male and Female)
Number of community seed producers adoptiing best 
practices (Male and Female)
Number of community seed producers that cultivated 
foundation seeds (Male and Female)
Number of non-targeted seed companies crowding-in #
NGN
MT/Hectar
e
#
Buy-back percentage %
#


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Total area cultivated for seed production Hectares
Number of NASC inspection visits per seed company
Number of seed companies received NASC inspection visit
Number of seed companies provided extension services
Number of seed companies provided inputs
Number of seed companies recruiting community seed 
producers
Number of seed companies signed partnership agreement #
Number of seed companies engaged in co-creating 
implemetation plans
#
Number of seed companies identified #
#
#
#Number of community seed producers trained (Male and 
Female)
Number of community seed producers recruited (Male and 
Female)
#
Number of community seed producer received inputs (Male 
and Female)
Number of target locations identified #
Number of community seed producer received extension 
services (Male and Female)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Complementary Qualitative 
indicator/questions
Applicable Log Frame 
Indicator
Outcome Indicator 3
Outcome Indicator 3
Outcome indicator 1a
Outcome indicator 1b
Outcome Indicator 3
Factors influencing crop yields 
attained;
Satisfaction of crop yield obtained
Outcome Indicator 2
Factors affecting the buy-back 
percentage recorded
Factors influencing expansion of 
CSM Model to new geographies
Factors influencing expansion to 
new locations
Outcome Indicator 3
Output Indicator 1.1
Output Indicator 1.1
Factors influencing change in 
income
Outcome Indicator 3
Factors affecting the buy-back 
percentage recorded


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Indicator Data Collection 
period
Data Source Who is responsible 
for Data Collection?
February and September 
yearly
Market monitoring, 
Partner Interview
Partner Interview
February and September 
yearly
February and September 
yearly
Market monitoring, 
Partner Interview
June (for wet season 
production)
December - January (for dry 
season production)
October (for wet season 
production)
April - May (for dry season 
production)
November - December (for 
wet season production)
June - July (for dry season)
February and September 
yearly
February and September 
yearly
Partner records
Partner records (Buy-
back receipts)
Partner records 
(Yield report)
June (for wet season 
production)
December - January (for dry 
season production)
Partner records
November - December (for


key: chroma:document
string_value:
production)
December - January (for dry 
season production)
Partner records
November - December (for 
wet season production)
June - July (for dry season)
Partner records 
(Yield report)
Partner Interview
February and September 
yearly
Market monitoring, 
Partner Interview
November - December (for 
wet season production)
June - July (for dry season)
Partner records (Buy-
back receipts)
Market monitoring, 
Partner Interview


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partner records Intervention Manager
At Contract signing Signed MoUs; 
Signed Contracts
Intervention Manager
At Inception Activity report Intervention Manager
At Inception Activity report Intervention Manager
Intervention ManagerPartner records (list 
of community seed 
producers recruited)
P+ Database
March - May (for wet season 
production)
October - December (for dry 
season production)
May - June (for wet season 
production)
November - January (for dry 
season production)
June (for wet season 
production)
December - January (for dry 
season production)
June (for wet season 
production)
December - January (for dry 
season production)
June (for wet season 
production)
December - January (for dry 
season production)
June (for wet season 
production)
December - January (for dry


key: chroma:document
string_value:
December - January (for dry 
season production)
June (for wet season 
production)
December - January (for dry 
season production)
P+ Database
Partner records
Partner records
P+ Database


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Line Items
Clearing
Harrowing
Planting
Foundation seeds (Maize)
Pre-Emergence Herbicide & Application
Post-Emergence Herbicide & Application
Fertiliser & Application
Weeding
Harvesting
Bags
Labour for Bagging
Earthing-Up
TOTAL
Smallholder Farmers Segment
Cost Line
Economics of 
Production 
(Maize Seed 
on 1 ha)


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Unit Cost (per ha)
30,000.00                                
50,000.00                                
30,000.00                                
100,000.00                             
37,500.00                                
30,000.00                                
380,000.00                             
50,000.00                                
100,000.00                             
40,000.00                                
15,000.00                                
37,500.00                                
900,000.00                             
Maize Rice Millet


key: chroma:document
string_value:
EOP for each actor EOPs per hectare and remarks of who bears what cost
Sales, Yield should be 
included to determine if model 
is profitable
Profitability for seed producer
EOPs for all the crops 
including farmer and partner
Profitability for partner
Ranges
 Cost of Buy-Back (Cost per Kg 
+ Premium Rate) 20 bags/Ha 
35,000 - 70,000
 Total Cost of EoP per Ha  300,000 - 350,000
Labour Cost 0 - 100,000
Harvest Cost 75,000 - 100,000
Processing Cost (2 tons)/Ha 500,000 - 750,000
 Total Prod. Cost + Buy-back 
Cost 
910,000 - 1,270,000
 Avg. Stipulated Recovery size 
/Ha 
20                                                                                                
Avg. No. of Outgrowers 100 - 300
Price of maize seeds 37,000 - 40,000
Total Revenue by Seed Comp.74,000,000 - 240,000,000


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Price of maize seeds 37,000 - 40,000
Total Revenue by Seed Comp.74,000,000 - 240,000,000
Sorghum
Partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
If partner did not do CSM how much is the 
alternative. Cost savings doing CSM 
Outgrower
Unit
NGN/bag x 20 bags (stipulated recovery 
size for maize crop)
35,000 - 70,000
Ha  300,000 - 350,000 
Ha 600,000 - 700,000
Ha
NGN/4 tons (Avg. yield per Ha) 335,000 - 420,000
No. of bags/Ha
Farmer
NGN/bag
NGN Recovery size*No. of Outgrowers*Price of Maize seeds
Partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Premium cost on each buy-back 
sale/bag 
 the average remaining bags to be 
sold off in the open market 
 
I89+I91-I90 (Total Revenue)  
 
Recovery size*No. of Outgrowers*Price of Maize seeds


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The exit decision is implemented across a phased-out period 3-5 years partnership contract with a partner, by answering key questions:
1Has the intervention achieved (or is it clearly on track to achieve) its vision for systemic change?
•       Question: Is the shortage of climate-smart seeds significantly addressed in rural communities?
•       If NO: Identify why. Can the program address these challenges? If yes, continue; if no, consider exiting.
•       If YES: Proceed to question 2.
2Can the intervention (specifically the seed companies' scaling efforts) sustain and scale without further program support?
A.      Assess the Partner across all scaling areas:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
A.      Assess the Partner across all scaling areas:
Diversified Seeds: Are seed companies independently identifying, developing, and distributing new climate-smart varieties based on market demand, without program cost-sharing?
Out-grower Numbers: Are seed companies autonomously managing and expanding their out-grower networks, providing sufficient input financing and technical support through their own resources?
New Geographies: Are seed companies expanding into new geographies based on their own market analysis and investment, rather than requiring program support for each expansion?
Profitability & Risk: Has program cost-sharing successfully de-risked the model to a point where partners see it as a viable, profitable business line and are willing to bear the full costs and risks?


key: chroma:document
string_value:
B.      If NO: Identify why. Can the program address these remaining dependencies or market failures? If yes, continue with adjusted support; if no, consider exiting (to avoid over-investment).
C.      If YES: Proceed to question 3.
3What support is needed, and what are the final triggers for complete withdrawal?
Minimal, Capacity building support might be considered initially.
Define final, measurable triggers that, once met, signal complete exit.
EXIT STRATEGY PROCESS FOR CSM


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The exit decision is implemented across a phased-out period 3-5 years partnership contract with a partner, by answering key questions:
Has the intervention achieved (or is it clearly on track to achieve) its vision for systemic change?
•       Question: Is the shortage of climate-smart seeds significantly addressed in rural communities?
•       If NO: Identify why. Can the program address these challenges? If yes, continue; if no, consider exiting.
Can the intervention (specifically the seed companies' scaling efforts) sustain and scale without further program support?
Diversified Seeds: Are seed companies independently identifying, developing, and distributing new climate-smart varieties based on market demand, without program cost-sharing?


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Out-grower Numbers: Are seed companies autonomously managing and expanding their out-grower networks, providing sufficient input financing and technical support through their own resources?
New Geographies: Are seed companies expanding into new geographies based on their own market analysis and investment, rather than requiring program support for each expansion?
Profitability & Risk: Has program cost-sharing successfully de-risked the model to a point where partners see it as a viable, profitable business line and are willing to bear the full costs and risks?
B.      If NO: Identify why. Can the program address these remaining dependencies or market failures? If yes, continue with adjusted support; if no, consider exiting (to avoid over-investment).
EXIT STRATEGY PROCESS FOR CSM


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Out-grower Numbers: Are seed companies autonomously managing and expanding their out-grower networks, providing sufficient input financing and technical support through their own resources?
New Geographies: Are seed companies expanding into new geographies based on their own market analysis and investment, rather than requiring program support for each expansion?
Profitability & Risk: Has program cost-sharing successfully de-risked the model to a point where partners see it as a viable, profitable business line and are willing to bear the full costs and risks?
B.      If NO: Identify why. Can the program address these remaining dependencies or market failures? If yes, continue with adjusted support; if no, consider exiting (to avoid over-investment).


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Name of Partner Investment area
Seed Project Co Vegetable Seed 
Processing line
Premier Seed Nigeria Limited Seed production and 
processing
Value Seeds Ltd
Seed production and 
Buy-back
Value Seeds Ltd
Seed processing
Asmau Seeds
Seed production
Page-6: Investment Leveraged
Additional investment leveraged by implementing partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Additional amount invested 
(NGN)
NGN 193,258,484
NGN162,541,820
NGN31,800,000
Page-6: Investment Leveraged
Additional investment leveraged by implementing partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Utilisation of additional investment (what was the investment used for) 
Employed new staff, Cost of input to new geographies, cost of insurance 
and weather advisory services
Destoners 1, elevators 2, graders 2, and seed conditioning line 1. The 
additional equiptments is important in improving the processing efficiency 
and the quality of the end products. For example the seed conditioning line 
is required for seed treatment against pest damage. The capacity of the 
additional items is in line with the entire capacity of the P+ supported 
processing line of 5MT/hour. The equipments were installed immediately 
after the installation of the P+ supported equipments, the processing line is 
• Constructed three water reservoirs equipped with solar system and a


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Constructed three water reservoirs equipped with solar system and a 
combined holding capacity of 655,000 litres to sustain dry-season seed 
production in Adamawa State.
Page-6: Investment Leveraged
Additional investment leveraged by implementing partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Fund Source: 
- Business balance sheet
Name of fund provider
personal fund Premier Seed
personal fund Value Seed
personal fund
Page-6: Investment Leveraged
Additional investment leveraged by implementing partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Climate change catgorisation 
(Adaptation, Mitigation, Both)
Name of the Partner 
rep that reported the 
Date of reporting the 
additional investment
Samson Afolabi 15th January 2026
Adaptation Mr. George 15th January 2026
Page-6: Investment Leveraged
Additional investment leveraged by implementing partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Name of intervention 
staff recording
Name of MERL staff 
validating
Date of validation
Isa Usman
Isa Usman
Page-6: Investment Leveraged
Additional investment leveraged by implementing partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Status (Approved or 
disbursed
Evidence in case of approval 
only (signed official approval 
letter from lender/source)
Month and Year the funds 
were approved or 
disbursedDisbursed
Disbursed October, 2025


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Climate categorisation 
(Adapt, mitigation, both)
Name of Fund Provider
Both Africa Enterprise 
Challenge Fund
Adaptation Sterling Bank


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Detailed purpose of the funds What percentage of the funds 
will be (or have been) 
invested in our intervention • Invested in a 70 kVA integrated solar 
system that powers seed processing and 
greenhouse operations for vegetable seed 
production on the facility
• Set up a vegetable processing line of 
100%
The funds was use to support seed 
poduction in 2025 and buy back from seed 
producers, an estimated 15,000MT of seeds 
were bought back from the farmers for 
processing in 2026. The funds was received 
in October 2025. 100%


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Propcom+ contribution in securing the funds. Name of the Partner rep 
that reported the 
The vegetable seed processing line was triggered by initial 
P+ support to the partner. P+ supported Seed Project Co to 
pilot vegetable seed production by engaging farmers, given 
the success of this trial, the company decided to fully 
venture into vegetable seeds processing. Nigeria farmers 
depends on imported vegetable seeds for their farming 
Mastura Bello
Value Seed requested for this loan to enable them utilize 
the processing line expansion. With the exapnsion, there is 
a need to produce more seeds by engaging more farmers 
and buy-back from them. This comes with a lot of financial 
needs, hence, Value Seeds request for the loan from


key: chroma:document
string_value:
and buy-back from them. This comes with a lot of financial 
needs, hence, Value Seeds request for the loan from 
Sterling Bank. P+ might not have participated in facilitating 
the access to the finance, but the request was triggered by Samson Okolo


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Date of reporting the additional 
investment
Name of intervention staff 
recording
15th January 2026 Isa Usman
9th February 2026 Isa Usman


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Details of the validation Expected finance 
estimated investment 
Visited the company. Saw the new 
processing line and the solar 
installations. Both were not part of 
the support given to the partner.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Stage of getting the 
funds. This may include 
an application, 
Name of fund 
provider
Detailed purpose 
of the funds
Climate 
categorization


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Name of the Partner 
rep that reported the 
Date of reporting the 
additional 
Name of intervention 
staff recording
Name of 
MERL


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Norman Zamani Limited 2024-01-01Completed
Girmal Agriculture Consultancy Limited 2023-12-20Completed
SeedProject Co 2024-06-26Completed
Premier Seed Nigeria Limited 2024-08-01Completed
Noman Zamani Limited: Used religious leaders to facilitate 
community entry to reach the percentage of women stipulated 
in the contract. This idea is original to the partner 
Added rice seed multiplication by outsourcing: The partner 
outsourced rice seed production using outgrowers, not 
directly engaged. Moved office to a permanent location 
Opened two retail outlets 
Dedicated expert to implement business models; Employed a 
general manager and agribusiness expert 
2025-04-30Completed
Girmal Agriculture Consultancy Limited: Purchased a 
power tiller for land preparation and provision of seeds for


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Girmal Agriculture Consultancy Limited: Purchased a 
power tiller for land preparation and provision of seeds for 
trial.  
2025-04-30Completed
Premier Seed Nigeria Limited: Employed production 
officers in Jigawa, Gombe and a gender specialist in Gombe 
Relocation of a factory manager, store manager and quality 
control officer to the new seed processing facility. 
2025-04-30Completed
Agri Seed Co: Integrated CSM model into seed 
production strategy to scale production
2025-04-30Completed
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that
Page-6: Systemic Change
Systemic Change Tracker
ADOPT
Instances of 'Partner takes up business model and 
shows concrete plans to continue it in the future'
ADAPT
Time Status
Instances of 'Partner has invested further in the initial


key: chroma:document
string_value:
ADAPT
Time Status
Instances of 'Partner has invested further in the initial 
business model or changed the model to suit their 
needs'
Time Status


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Executed contract 
Executed contract 
Executed contract 
Executed contract 
KII with partner
KII with partner
KII with partner
KII with partner
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that
Page-6: Systemic Change
Systemic Change Tracker
RESPOND
EXPAND
Instances of  'Similar or competing stakeholders are 
seen to copy the business model or parts of it'
Instances of  'Other players/stakeholders have made 
changes in their business due to the actions of the 
partners'
ADOPT
ADAPT
Information source
Information source


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that
Page-6: Systemic Change
Systemic Change Tracker
RESPOND
EXPAND
Time Status Information source
Time Status Information source


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Type of Systemic Change 
Reported by the Partner:
Adapt,
Expand,
Response
Himma Agricultural Support Initiative 
(HASI)
Response
The Seed Project Ltd Response
Adapt
Adapt
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
Name of Partner


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Asma'u Memorial Farms Adapt
Noman Zamani
Value Seed Adapt,
Premier Seed Adapt,
Seed Project Co Adapt,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Adaptation category
Business Model Change
New geography
More reach
Org structure changes
Additional Investment
Business Model ChangeBuilt an acre-sized greenhouse farm, 
designed to carry out a large scale vegetable 
production, equipped with adequate solar-
powered pumps . The greenhouse is 
powered by the 70KVA solar capacity that the 
entire facility relies on (completely off the 
grid).
Business Model ChangeStructured an Integrated Farming system 
through constructing a 4000L-capacity fish 
pond, whose used water is piped to water the 
greenhouse farm.
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
greenhouse farm.
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
ADAPTATION
Details of the Instance of Adaptation


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Improved Business ModelConstructed 3 sizeable water reservoirs on 
the farmland, while adding 4 solar-powered 
pumps to facilitate large-scale irrigation 
farming, especially during dry season.Added rice seed multiplication by 
outsourcing: The partner outsourced rice 
seed production using outgrowers, not 
directly engaged.
Triggered by the P+ CDEL grant, the 
company strengthened its operations 
by acquiring additional equipment including 
destoners, elevators, graders, polishers, and 
seed treatment units (GBP 85,556).
Due to the P+ support, Value Seed is 
engaging additional seed producers 
to increase their production.Premier seed registered all their seed 
producers with Ignitia, a weather 
advisory service provider, given the farmers 
up to date weather and farm


key: chroma:document
string_value:
producers with Ignitia, a weather 
advisory service provider, given the farmers 
up to date weather and farm 
management advisory.
Expansion of the seed outgrower scheme to 
Niger state, and new LGAs in Gombe.
Invested in purchasing and installing 
vegetable seed processing facility
 and Lauched Vagetable garden kits


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Shifting to a business model that is more 
women-centric. This was inspired by her 
determination as a female-leading entrepreneur 
to empower more women into farming business.
This is aimed at cutting down the cost of 
excessive water demand by the farm and 
reducing water waste for efficient use. The 
company also explores business opportunities 
in aquaculture.
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
in aquaculture.
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
ADAPTATION
Reasons for the Adaptation. Why did the 
partner adapt?


key: chroma:document
string_value:
July, 2025 Dr Zainab Gwadabe
July, 2025 Dr Zainab Gwadabe
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
ADAPTATION
Date when the adaptation happened (Month and 
Year)
Name of the Partner 
representative that 
reported the adaptation


key: chroma:document
string_value:
29/11/2025 Sulaiman Ja'afar
29/11/2025 Sulaiman Ja'afar
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
ADAPTATION
Date of 
reporting/recordi
ng the adaptation
Name of 
intervention 
staff recording
Name of MERL 
staff validating
Date of 
validation


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
ADAPTATION EXPAND - COMPETITORS OF THE ACTOR CROWDING IN (REPLICATING ELEMENTS OF THE INTERVENTION MODEL)
Details of the 
validation
Name of the Agribusiness 
firm/company crowding-in


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
EXPAND - COMPETITORS OF THE ACTOR CROWDING IN (REPLICATING ELEMENTS OF THE INTERVENTION MODEL)
Element(s) of the intervention business 
model the Agribusiness firm/company 
crowding-in is replicating
Details of what the 
Agribusiness firm/company


key: chroma:document
string_value:
model the Agribusiness firm/company 
crowding-in is replicating
Details of what the 
Agribusiness firm/company 
crowding-in is doing


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
EXPAND - COMPETITORS OF THE ACTOR CROWDING IN (REPLICATING ELEMENTS OF THE INTERVENTION MODEL)
Name of the Contact person 
for the Agribusiness 
firm/company crowding-in
Email of the Contact person 
for the Agribusiness 
firm/company crowding-in


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
EXPAND - COMPETITORS OF THE ACTOR CROWDING IN (REPLICATING ELEMENTS OF THE INTERVENTION MODEL)
Phone number of the Contact 
person for the Agribusiness 
firm/company crowding-in
Name of the Partner 
rep that reported 
the crowding-in


key: chroma:document
string_value:
person for the Agribusiness 
firm/company crowding-in
Name of the Partner 
rep that reported 
the crowding-in
How did the partner reporting 
(or the programme) influence 
the firm to crowd-in?


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
EXPAND - COMPETITORS OF THE ACTOR CROWDING IN (REPLICATING ELEMENTS OF THE INTERVENTION MODEL)
Date of 
reporting/recordin
g the crowding-in
Name of 
intervention 
staff recording
Name of 
MERL 
staff 
validating
Date of 
validati
on
Details of 
the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Name of 
intervention 
staff recording
Name of 
MERL 
staff 
validating
Date of 
validati
on
Details of 
the 
validatio
n


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Farmers of Babban 
Ruga Community, 
Katsina LGA
Farmers of Babban Ruga community, a town 
neighbouring Musa R. Dan-hassan farm plot, 
were attracted by the yield size of his 
improved Sorghum variety (Samsorg-52), 
promoted by Propcom+ during wet season. 
About 200 SHFs came to acquire the seeds 
variety from him and adopted it for dry 
season.
Musa Rabo Dan-
hassan
Farmers of Taura town, 
Jigawa State
The farmer - Hamisu Taura - was the first 
to grow biofortified Iron-Pearl millet in his 
hometown Taura.The people in the town 
were fascinated by the crop yield 
potental and began sourcing the variety 
from him, boosting his entrepreneurial 
opportunities while offering the small- Hamisu Taura
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
RESPOND - REACTION TO CHANGING MARKET REALITIES BY SUPPORT FUNCTION AND RULES ACTORS WHO ARE NOT COMPETITORS TO OUR PARTNERS
Name of the Supporting 
function actor or Rule 
actor responding
Details of the response Name of the 
Contact person for


key: chroma:document
string_value:
function actor or Rule 
actor responding
Details of the response Name of the 
Contact person for 
the actor 
responding


key: chroma:document
string_value:
8035969054Lawal Abdu K/Sauri31/10/2025
7087583308Mastura Bello 25/09/2025
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.
RESPOND - REACTION TO CHANGING MARKET REALITIES BY SUPPORT FUNCTION AND RULES ACTORS WHO ARE NOT COMPETITORS TO OUR PARTNERS
Phone number of the 
Contact person for


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Phone number of the 
Contact person for 
the actor responding
Name of the Partner 
rep that reported 
the response
Email of the 
Contact person for 
the actor 
responding
Date of 
reporting/record
ing the response


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Transfer information from old systemic change sheet into the new one
Investment leveraged worksheet
Sulaiman Ja'afar
Sulaiman Ja'afar
Page-6: Systemic Change
Targeted Systemic Change and ways to achieve that:
Effective rural poultry/livestock vaccination systems led by many veterinary pharmaceutical distributors; Increased number of last mile agents (CAHWs/VPPs, and others) administering vaccines and related animal health products/services profitably to farmers supported by solar vehicles and storage equipment; Increased share of farmers vaccinating their birds and ruminants; routine poultry/livestock vaccination processes institutionalised and funded by the public sector.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
RESPOND - REACTION TO CHANGING MARKET REALITIES BY SUPPORT FUNCTION AND RULES ACTORS WHO ARE NOT COMPETITORS TO OUR PARTNERS
Name of 
intervention 
staff recording
Name of 
MERL 
staff 
validating
Date of 
validati
on
Details of 
the 
validatio
n


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Page-7: Environmental Management Plan
Impacts producing factor Observed environmental 
consequences 
Seed production and packaging Agricultural waste generation from 
leftover plant materials and seed 
packaging
Application of agricultural inputs  fertilisers, chemicals, 
etc.
▪Soil Damage
▪GHG Emissions
▪Surface water contamination
Irrigation of farms Water resource strain
Transport and logistics GHG Emissions from distribution to seeds
Partner Specific Improvement Plans
Asma'u Memorial Farms
S/N Corrective Action
1
DevelopandadoptanEnvironmental
ManagementPlanalignedwithall
relevant legal and regulatory
requirements and appoint an
environmental focal person.
2
Appoint and designate an
EnvironmentalComplianceOfficer(or
equivalent role) with clear
responsibilities.
3


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2
Appoint and designate an
EnvironmentalComplianceOfficer(or
equivalent role) with clear
responsibilities.
3
Organizeatrainingforallstaffonthe
EnvironmentalManagementRisk,
health and safety.
4
Conduct and document product 
lifecycle assessments (PLAs) and 
prepare regular reports.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5
Develop and adopt an environmental 
policy that ensures compliance with all 
relevant legal and regulatory 
requirements.
6
Establish a system to document and 
monitor energy use, with regular 
reporting.
7
Implement a water management plan 
including usage tracking, conservation 
measures, and compliance testing.
8
Develop and adopt a sustainable 
procurement policy with supplier 
evaluation criteria.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Associated impact ranking
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Expected Outcome TimelineUpdate on Improvement
Strong governance framework 
and full compliance with 
environmental laws.
1 month
Stronger governance and 
compliance with environmental 
laws.
1 month
Enhanced staff capacity to 
identify, manage, and mitigate 
environmental, health, and safety 
risks for improved compliance 
and workplace sustainability.
2 month
Clear understanding of 
environmental impacts across 
product lifecycle and improved 
decision-making.
6 months
Implement water-efficient irrigation techniques and rainwater harvesting in 
training programs.
Use energy efficient vehicle for delivery within the last mile, Bulk supply to rural 
communities
The use of organic fertilisers and environmentally friendly chemicals shall be


key: chroma:document
string_value:
communities
The use of organic fertilisers and environmentally friendly chemicals shall be 
encouraged for smallholder farmers
Initial impact mitigation measures recommended
Lead firms shall advocate for the application of an integrated waste 
management system, such as the use of agricultural waste as organic fertilisers, 
Use of biodegradable packing, and recycle seed bags.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Strengthened environmental 
governance and full legal 
compliance.
2 months
Improved energy efficiency and 
reduced environmental footprint.3 months
Efficient water use and verified 
compliance with discharge 
standards.
3 months
Transparent, sustainable sourcing 
and improved supplier compliance 
with environmental standards.
4 months


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Monitoring Parameters
Number of seeds produced. Number of 
packs of seeds sold, Package disposal 
method
Volume and nature of fertilisers and 
chemicals used, Size and Number of 
impacted land and water bodies
Average Distance covered per delivery, 
Number of deliveries per annum
AgriSeed CO
S/N
NGN 1
NGN 2
NGN 3
NGN 4
Implement water-efficient irrigation techniques and rainwater harvesting in 
training programs.
Use energy efficient vehicle for delivery within the last mile, Bulk supply to rural 
communities
The use of organic fertilisers and environmentally friendly chemicals shall be 
encouraged for smallholder farmers
Initial impact mitigation measures recommended
Lead firms shall advocate for the application of an integrated waste


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Initial impact mitigation measures recommended
Lead firms shall advocate for the application of an integrated waste 
management system, such as the use of agricultural waste as organic fertilisers, 
Use of biodegradable packing, and recycle seed bags.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Time of Monitoring Responsible
Yearly Portfolio Manager
Yearly Portfolio Manager
Yearly Portfolio Manager
Yearly Portfolio Manager
Corrective Action Expected Outcome Timeline
Develop and adopt an 
Environmental Management 
Plan aligned with all relevant 
legal and regulatory 
requirements
Strong governance framework and 
full compliance with environmental 
laws. 
1 month
Appoint and designate an 
Environmental Compliance 
Officer (or equivalent role) 
with clear responsibilities.
Stronger governance and 
compliance with environmental laws.1 month
Organize a training for all staff 
on the Environmental 
Management Risk, health and 
safety
Enhanced staff capacity to identify, 
manage, and mitigate 
environmental, health, and safety 
risks for improved compliance and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
manage, and mitigate 
environmental, health, and safety 
risks for improved compliance and 
workplace sustainability.
2 month
Develop and implement a 
waste management program 
that includes segregation, safe 
disposal, and recycling 
practices.
Improved waste handling, reduced 
environmental footprint, and 
compliance with waste regulations.
3 months


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Develop and adopt an 
environmental policy and 
ensure compliance with all 
relevant legal and regulatory 
requirements.
Clear organizational commitment to 
environmental compliance and 
improved legal adherence.
2 months
Establish a logistics policy to 
guide sustainable 
transportation and distribution 
practices.
Reduced transport emissions, 
improved efficiency, and alignment 
with sustainability goals.
4 months
Conduct and document 
product lifecycle assessments 
(PLAs) for key products and 
services.
Better understanding of 
environmental impacts across the 
product lifecycle to guide 
improvements.
6 months


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Himma Agricultural Support Initiative (HASI)
Corrective Action Expected Outcome
Developandadoptanenvironmental/Plan
policyensuringcompliancewithallrelevant
legal and regulatory requirements.
Stronggovernanceframeworkandfull
regulatory compliance.
AppointadesignatedEnvironmental
ComplianceOfficer(orequivalentrole)with
clear responsibilities.
Improvedaccountabilityandoversightof
environmental management.
Organizeatrainingforallstaffonthe
EnvironmentalManagementRisk,healthand
safety
Enhancedstaffcapacitytoidentify,manage,
andmitigateenvironmental,health,and
safetyrisksforimprovedcomplianceand
workplace sustainability.
Conductanddocumentproductlifecycle
assessments (PLAs) with regular reporting.
Betterunderstandingofproductimpacts
acrosslifecycletosupportsustainability
improvements.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Implementaroutinewatertestingprogramto
ensure compliance with discharge
standards.
Verifiedcompliancewithenvironmental
standardsandreducedriskofwater
pollution.
Createandimplementalogisticspolicy
promotingsustainabletransportationand
distribution practices.
Reducedemissions,improvedefficiency,
and alignment with sustainability objectives.
Developawatermanagementplanincluding
usagetracking,conservationmeasures,and
recordkeeping.
Improvedwaterefficiencyandevidence-
based compliance.
Developandadoptasustainable
procurementpolicywithsupplierevaluation
criteria.
Transparentsourcing,improvedsupplier
accountability, and integration of
sustainability in procurement.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Box #Results Chain Statement Status What changes have been 
made to this Box in the 
Results Chain and why?
<<< Date of 
changes 
made
Date of 
reflection or 
review >>>
Non-targeted community seed 
producers are engaged to multiply 
certified seeds (Indirect)
not-startedNo NA
Community seed producers 
experience increased income due to 
higher productivity and buy-back 
from seed companies 
Ongoing No NA 27/01/25
Community seed producers 
experience increased income due to 
higher productivity and buy-back 
from seed companies 
23/09/2025
Community seed producers 
experience increased income due to 
higher productivity and buy-back 
from seed companies 
Ongoing 01/12/2026
Page-8: Action Learning
EP-ID1
EP3


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Community seed producers sell 
harvested certified climate smart 
seeds to other farmers
23/09/2025
Community seed producers sell 
harvested certified climate smart 
seeds to seed companies
Ongoing No NA 27/01/25
Community seed producers achieve 
expected optimum yield of certified 
climate smart seeds
Ongoing No NA 27/01/25
23/09/2025
Non-partner seed companies buy 
certified seeds and sell them 
(Indirect)
Non-targeted seed companies crowd-
in and start replicating the CSM 
model (Indirect)
NA
MP-ID1
MP-ID3
EP2b
EP1
EP2a


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partner seed companies expand their 
operations to new geographies using 
the CSM business model
Ongoing NA NA 23/06/25
21/09/25
Seed companies experience better 
returns from lowered costs of 
acquiring certified seeds
Ongoing NA NA 23/06/25
21/09/25
NASC carry out scheduled inspection 
on seed production throughout the 
seed production life cycle.
NA NA 23/09/25MU2
MP-ID3
MP2
MP1


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Community seed producers adopt 
best practices for seed production.
Community seed producers cultivate 
foundation seeds for production of 
climate smart seeds
Ongoing NA NA 27/01/25
21/09/25
Seed companies Extension Agents 
provide continuous monitoring and 
advisories to seed producers 
throughout seed production life cycle.
MU1a
MU1b
MT3


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Seed companies provides inputs 
(foundation seeds, agro chemicals, 
etc) for community seed producers
CompletedNo NA 27/01/25
21/09/25
Seed companies train community 
seed producers for production of 
climate smart seeds, including seeds 
for women-centric crops, like 
groundnut
CompletedNo NA 27/01/25
Seed companies identify and recruit 
community seed producers (in-
growers, out-growers)
Ongoing No NA 27/01/25
21/09/25
MT1
MT3
MT2
A4


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Seed companies identify target 
locations (sites) and farmer clusters 
(as applicable) for Community Seed 
Multiplication
Ongoing None NA 23/09/2025
Propcom+ signs partnership 
agreement with selected seed 
companies best positioned to scale 
the CSM model
CompletedNo NA 27/01/25
22/09/2025
A2
A4
A3


key: chroma:document
string_value:
P+ works with interested seed 
companies to co-create 
implementation strategies to expand 
the CSM model 
CompletedNo NA 27/01/25
22/09/2025
Propcom+ (P+) identifies suitable 
seed companies and introduces the 
community seed multiplication (CSM) 
model to them
CompletedNA NA 27/01/25
23/06/25
22/09/2025
A1a
A1b


key: chroma:document
string_value:
What made this step in the 
Results Chain successful or 
not? (success factors)
What was the greatest challenge 
faced? and how was it overcome, or 
not?
What is the greatest new 
challenge emerging? and how 
was it discovered?
NA NA NA
Increased productivity 
through outgrower model
NA NA
Sustained and Regular 
monitoring by Extension 
Agents on adopting GAP.   
Competitive buy-back 
premium rates upon 
prevailing market prices
Community seed producers 
reported increase yield from 
seed production ( For 
example, Asma'u Memorial 
Farm Ltd seed farmers 
reported over 200% increase 
in yield). The increase yield 
might be due to increased 
adoption of climate smart 
practices and input received 
from the seed companies
Climate change has been the major


key: chroma:document
string_value:
adoption of climate smart 
practices and input received 
from the seed companies
Climate change has been the major 
challenge affecting crop yield, flood 
and dry spell affected farmers 
production last year. This year the 
activity advocated the seed companies 
to adopt climate smart agricultural 
practices, for example HASI piloted the 
Zai Pits technology in seed production. 
The government policy 
allowing the importation of 
grains affected the income of 
this farmers, given the drastic 
grain price drop some farmers 
might find it difficult to 
continue farming in 2026.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Competitive market prices, 
wide range of open market 
options including bulk buyers.
Farm-gate purchases distress sales 
often lead to farmers incurring losses 
ultimately.
Minimized by buy-back options from 
seed companies that offer premium 
rates upon prevailing market prices.
Risks of running at a loss in the 
open market, especially light 
of Government policy on 
crashing food prices.
Government pronouncements
Seed companies offering 
buyback at premium
Side-selling - Prevented by early buy-
back
NA
Delivery of GAP, quality of 
inputs, extension services 
delivered to SHFs. yield report 
recorded by processors.
NA NA


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Increased market for seeds 
caused by increased demand 
from the new geographies 
through market activation 
campaigns and capacity 
building of SHFs.
Costs of business expansion to new 
communities, de-risked by cost-sharing 
agreement with the partners.
NA
high buyback rate of certified 
seeds from outgrowers.
Side-selling - Prevented by early buy-
back & premium pricing. 
Increasing cost of inputs 
impact profit margins of seed 
companies
1. Affordable input loans to 
seed producers.
2. Competitive buyback 
premium rates upon 
prevailing market prices.
NASC technical capacity 
building for Seed Companies 
Extension Agents to own 
technical knowledge for a 
more experienced farm 
monitoring and supervision.
High logistics cost to conduct regular 
Extension monitoring visits to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
monitoring and supervision.
High logistics cost to conduct regular 
Extension monitoring visits to 
farmlands.
Engaging Extension Agents in close 
proximity to intervention communities


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1. Affordable input loans 
given to seed producers.
2. Demonstrated training of 
GAP by Seed companies 
Extension Agents
Unpredictable weather conditions e,g 
flood and drought remain a challenge 
to achieving optimum yield.
Mitigation: Piloting collaboration 
between partners and Ignitia (agri-
tech) to improve farmers EWS and 
enhance preparedness.
NA
Early delivery of inputs to 
outgrowers & farmer training
Climate: Heat wave in dry season & 
flooding in rainy season - Seed 
companies used NiMet rainfall forecast 
to guide wet season production plans
NA
Facilitating linkage between 
EGS producing companies and 
Partners.
Delay in the varietal release of the 
newly-launched varieties from NVRC  
for pilot trials e.g Zinc-Rice
Expedite the process through enhanced


key: chroma:document
string_value:
newly-launched varieties from NVRC  
for pilot trials e.g Zinc-Rice
Expedite the process through enhanced 
tripartite partnership with other players 
in the field. e.g P+ and Harvestplus 
facilitating its earlier release to Seed 
Project Co in Kano.
NA
NASC Staff building capacity 
of Seed Companies Extension 
Agents to carry out well-
informed monitoring and offer 
advisories to SHFs
High logistics cost to conduct regular 
Extension monitoring visits to 
farmlands.
Engaging Extension Agents in close 
proximity to intervention communities
NA


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Early delivery of inputs to 
outgrowers
Logistic constraints during input 
distribution to scattered farmer cluster 
groups. Seed companies identify 
distribution points where farmers 
receive inputs.
NA
1. High inputs costs especially fertilizer.
2. Seed companies risk losing seed 
producers due to delay in arrival of 
inputs. 
Mitigation: Some partners pilot 
partnerships with input producing 
companies to subsidize cost of inputs 
for farmers and ensure timely arrival 
e.g Seed Project and Dangote 
Fertilizer.
1. Consistent free fall of grains 
prices imposed by 
Government policies.
2. Upward/Downward Review 
of buy-back prices with seed 
produccers due to volatile 
change of market prices.
Delivery of extension services, 
engagement with NASC to 
ensure QC.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
change of market prices.
Delivery of extension services, 
engagement with NASC to 
ensure QC. 
Increased logistic costs for delivery of 
trainings to outgrowers due to rising 
PMS cost
NA
Advocacy to farmer groups / 
communties 
NA NA
Partners oganize stakeholder 
consultation meetings 
targeting intervention 
community leaders, BMOs, 
Women groups etc.
Recruiting targeted number of female 
outgrowers.
Addressed by: facilitating collaboration 
with Women BMOs eg SWOFON with 
Girmal in Adamawa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partners organize stakeholder 
consultation meetings 
targeting intervention 
community leaders, BMOs, 
Women groups etc.
Risks of identifying communities/seed 
producers that already received 
improved seeds through other 
development partners.
Thorough community mapping with 
the help of partners and reliable 
community sources.
Risk of insecurity ravaging the 
already selected 
communities. e.g Katsina, 
Malumfashi Zone.
Security team and PEA helped 
in raising insecurity alarms in 
the affected areas
Complete DD Slow DD process. Consistent follow up 
to ensure swift assessment process
NA
Strong relationship 
management with new and 
existing partners enabled 
them to commence work. 
Furthermore, the engagement 
was around their core 
business model with 
Propcom+ supporting strong


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Furthermore, the engagement 
was around their core 
business model with 
Propcom+ supporting strong 
additionality
Contracting delays due to change in the 
programme granting process. 
This is still ongoing, however, the 
programme team is leveraging on 
relationships with new and existing 
partners to manage the process
Inconsistent granting process 
may influence partnership 
agreements for the coming 
years


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Will & skill of seed companiesClimate: Heat wave in dry season & 
flooding in rainy season - Seed 
companies used NiMet rainfall forecast 
to guide wet season production plans
Rise in the cost of inputs
Close engagement and strong 
relationship management 
with new and existing 
partners. Partners willingness 
to expand the CSM model
Prospecting partners requesting for 
support for the procurement of inputs 
such as fertilisers etc. The intervention 
team was able to use evidence of 
success from previous efforts to 
leverage investment in additional 
Organize Seed Investment 
forum to pitch model to seed 
companies.
NA Low risk appetite to invest in 
the model
Re-engagement of existing 
partners and engaging with 
key stakeholders in new 
geographies e.g., engaging


key: chroma:document
string_value:
the model
Re-engagement of existing 
partners and engaging with 
key stakeholders in new 
geographies e.g., engaging 
with Katsina state agric 
stakeholders to identify HASI 
as a potential partner for CSM
Contracting delays due to change in the 
programme granting process. 
This is still ongoing, however, the 
programme team is leveraging on 
relationships with new and existing 
partners to manage the process
Prospecting partners 
requesting for support for the 
procurement of inputs such as 
fertilisers etc.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
What are the implications of 
this for future activity?
What changes are you 
planning to make to the 
Results Chain or workplan for 
next quarter?
Responsibility?By when? Was it done?
NA NA
NA NA
Many farmers might not 
continue farming due to the 
high cost of production and 
the reduced grain price
P+ will support (TA) seed 
companies to adopt practices 
that reduces the cost of 
production using digital 
extension services, alternative 
fertilizers.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Double efforts in training seed 
producers on GAP to maximize 
yield and bridge the gap of 
cost of production v. crops 
prevailing market prces.
NA
NA NA
NA NA


key: chroma:document
string_value:
More availability/access of 
seeds to the SHFs in the new 
communities.
NA
NA NA Intervention 
Team
Leverage model of 
community-based Extension 
Agents to cut down prices of 
logistics
NA


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Leverage success stories from 
the adoption rates across 
intervention communities to 
increase awareness of 
farmers in new geographies. 
e.g through market activation 
campaigns, radio jingles etc.
NA Intervention 
Team/P+ 
Partners
Q3Y3
NA Include the use of weather 
forecast and integration of 
EWS into seed production 
plans
Intervention 
Team
Q1Y3
NA NA Intervenion 
Team/P+ 
Partners
Q3Y3
Increased awareness of 
farmers on Good Agronomic 
Practices which also leads to 
increased adoption rates.
NA


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Factor in the increased logistic 
cost for training delivery 
during cost-share agreement
NA P+ Partners Q1Y3
Potential high risks of 
investment in the seeds 
business.
NA Intervention 
Team/P+ 
Partners
Q3Y3
Factor in the increased logistic 
cost for training delivery 
during cost-share agreement
Engage seed companies to 
integrate digital extension 
services in farmer trainings
Intervention 
Team / P+ 
partners
Q1 Y3
NA Include the prioritzation of  
women SHFs as outgrowers
Intervention TeamQ1 Y3
Leverage results from Girmal's 
engagement to inform future 
engagement strategies with 
other seed companies, 
particularly around the value 
of partnering with women-led 
business member 
organisations (BMOs).
Document case studies and 
success stories from the 
engagement
Intervention 
Team


key: chroma:document
string_value:
organisations (BMOs).
Document case studies and 
success stories from the 
engagement
Intervention 
Team
Q4 2025


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Reach unserved communities 
across intervention states with 
improved seeds. 
And form bankable farmer 
groups/cooperative societies 
for a more easier linkage to 
Access to Finance.
Encourage more engagement 
of seed producers in clusters 
for easier traceability, 
coordination and 
management.
Intervention 
Team / P+ 
partners
Q4 2025
NA NA
It is important for multi-year 
contracts to reduce instances 
of contracting delays and 
having to start from ground 
zero at the start of every 
financial year
Engage more partners for the 
coming dry season plan 
window
Intervention 
Manager
Q3 2025


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Low financial risk appetite A2F Intervention 
Team / P+ 
partners
Q1 Y3
Cost-share investment in the 
model with seed compnaies
Use successes from seed 
companies to pitch model to 
crowd in additional seed 
companies
KM / Intervention 
Team
Q1 Y3
Strengthen communication on 
programme models. Use 
success stories as evidence to 
stimulate private sector 
investment
Intervention 
Team
Continuous


key: chroma:document
string_value:
From what you have learnt across all the Boxes in the Results 
Chain, what worked well on this intervention during the period 
under review, and MOST IMPORTANTLY WHY? (i.e. what's the 
main LESSON we have learnt that could benefit others?)
For Plenary Presentation & Discussion and Quarterly Reporting:
27/01/25 1. Expansion of seed baskets to include additional climate 
adapted seed varieties: Seed companies started multiplying 
additional seed varieties following the demand for these 
varieties.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
23/06/25 There is an evidence that seed companies are expanding their 
businesses to new geographies and expanding their seeds 
baskets with more varieties. 
WHY: This was due to a demand generated from targeted 
market storms which creates mass awareness to the public, 
bundled extension services offered by RSPs which builds capacity 
building of non-outgrowers among rural communities.
29/09/2025 Partners are now moving to new geographies due to increased 
demand occasioned by targeted market activation/radio 
campaigns across different locations.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Partners are now being more deliberate on producing 
varieties specific to agro-ecology of a region against 
producing a gene. For example, Value Seed is scaling-up 
the production of a climate smart maize variety called 
Sammaz-27 (extra early variety) specifically for the 
Northeast region. Asma'u seeds and HASI producing 
Partners are now opting for crops that require less input, early 
maturing, high yielding and can be produced multiple times in a 
year. For example samsorg 52 which takes about 70 days to 
mature is now being adopted by many seed companies.
Increased yield due to adoption of climate smart practices for 
seed production. For example, HASI reported yield of 2.3MT/ha 
and 1.9MT/ha against national average of 1.2MT/ha and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
seed production. For example, HASI reported yield of 2.3MT/ha 
and 1.9MT/ha against national average of 1.2MT/ha and 
0.9MT/ha for sorghum and cowpea respectively when they 
adopted Zai Pits on a degraded land in Katsina. Asma’u Farms 
also reported increased yield of maize and rice from 0.60MT/ha 
and 0.65MT/ha in 2024 to 2.8MT/ha and 3.24MT/ha in 2025 
respectively, resulting from water management, complimenting 
rainfall with irrigation. In 2024 AMF farmers experienced two 
strong instances of climate-change events, which significantly 
affected their yields: (i) a dry spell in the early post-planting 
phase and then (ii) flooding at later stages
Y3 Q3: 
13/01/26
29/09/2025 Partners are now moving to new geographies due to increased


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Y3 Q3: 
13/01/26
29/09/2025 Partners are now moving to new geographies due to increased 
demand occasioned by targeted market activation/radio 
campaigns across different locations.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
What didn't work so well, and WHY? (i.e. 
what's the main LESSON we have learnt from 
what didn't work so well, that we would have 
done differently in retrospect, for the benefit 
of next time, and others?)
Summarise the action you have taken or are 
going to take going forward (i.e. 
ADAPTATIONS: changes to your intervention 
strategy, results chain and/or planned 
activities) based on what worked and/or what 
didn't work so well
For Plenary Presentation & Discussion and Quarterly Reporting:
1. Integrate the use of digital extension 
technologies to CSM. Work with seed 
companies to integrate more climate-smart 
and biofortified seed varieties into their seed 
baskete.e.g vegetables seeds,explore  tree 
seedlings (oil palm, cocoa) bussiness to the last


key: chroma:document
string_value:
baskete.e.g vegetables seeds,explore  tree 
seedlings (oil palm, cocoa) bussiness to the last 
mile. + Leverage Seed Codex technology to 
disseminate digital extension or weather 
advisory services to SHFs.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1. The programme team is leveraging on 
relationships with new and existing partners to 
manage onboarding process of partners due to 
experienced contracting delays.
2. Facilitating collaboration with Women BMOs 
to enhance women participation in the 
intervention activities e.g SWOFON with 
Girmal in Adamawa
1. Reduced risks appetite among seed 
companies in investing in Outgrower model.
WHY: Rise in the cost of inputs and logistics 
amidst lowered food prices
2. The timely onboarding of partners did not 
work so well.
WHY: due to contracting bottlenecks.
Support seed companies to: 
1. Scale and diversify into EGS production to 
encourage B2B partnerships between seed 
companies.
2. De-risk expansion of businesses into new 
geographies and wider engagement of 
outgrowers.
NA


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Track performance of the specific varieties and 
share learnings to other seed companies to 
encourage adoption of agro-ecology specific 
seed varieties.​
Support seed companies to expand seed 
1. The programme team is leveraging on 
relationships with new and existing partners to 
manage onboarding process of partners due to 
experienced contracting delays.
2. Facilitating collaboration with Women BMOs 
to enhance women participation in the 
intervention activities e.g SWOFON with 
Girmal in Adamawa
The partnership between the seed companies 
and ignitia did not really work well for most of 
our partners due the cost associated with 
subscription. 
Our request to seed companies to engage new 
outgrowers for dry season does not make 
business sense, since they already have


key: chroma:document
string_value:
outgrowers for dry season does not make 
business sense, since they already have 
outgrowers engaged in wet season. As such we 
can only count this outgrowers once although 
they were engaged multiple times. 
1. Support all partners to adopt practices that 
reduces cost of production, this include 
adoption of climate smart agriculture in their 
seed production utilizing existing structures 
such as NiMet seasonal weather predictions, 
EWS, adoption of alternative fertilizers to 
complement the inorganic fertilizers.
2. Scale-up extension service delivery by 
partners, utilizing different extension mediums, 
e-extension, print, demonstration plots.
3. Disseminate finding on Zai Pits and support 
other CSM partners to adopt Zai Pits in other 
states especially the sahel regions.​
​


key: chroma:document
string_value:
other CSM partners to adopt Zai Pits in other 
states especially the sahel regions.​
​
4. Facilitate B2B linkage with partners from 
other interventions Agricare Standard Plus, Al-
Zira'a Tech, WIMA, NIMSY, CESEL to promote 
the adoption of simplified mechanization and 
soil testing to inform the efficient use of 
fertilizer.
NA


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Which planned activities for next quarter need 
to be stopped, scaled-back, or scaled-up, and 
WHY? (i.e. provide a justification for each)
What was the outcome of the action you took?
(for Y3 Q3 QSR)
Additional varieties were added by seed companies
Seed companies diversifying into varieties that are 
less input dependent, early maturing seed 
varieties. Asma'u farms now working with 500 
seed outgrowers to multply vegetable seeds during 
dry season, allowing them to produce year round. 
  
Although digital extension integration on 
SeedCodex did not happen, other forms digital 
extension such as radio messaging are being 
implemented by seed companies, extension 
services provision is now a key component of the 
seed companies activities.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
implemented by seed companies, extension 
services provision is now a key component of the 
seed companies activities.
For Plenary Presentation & Discussion and Quarterly Reporting:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Increased availability of EGS in the communities, 
seed companies reported expanding into new 
geographies
HarvestPlus partners have increase production of 
Iron Pearl Millet (0.2mt of breeders seed and 5mt 
of foundation)
Zinc Rice ESG production will be done during this dry 
season.
Propcom+ has linked Ignitia to some of our 
partners. The partners have shown willinginess to 
subscribe to Ignitia's services, Premier seed has 
subscribe, Arzikin Noma is currently in talks with 
Ignitia, while CMD a non  seed partner has also 
subscribed. 
Some partners indicated that the cost is high and as 
such they did not subscribe.
1. Scaling up EGS and Zinc-Rice production.
2. Facilitate B2B partnerships between 
Aggregators and Seed Companies.
1. Some partners pilot partnerships with input


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2. Facilitate B2B partnerships between 
Aggregators and Seed Companies.
1. Some partners pilot partnerships with input 
producing companies e.g Seed Project and 
Dangote Fertilizer.
To subsidize cost of inputs for farmers and 
ensure timely arrival. 
2. Piloting collaboration between partners and 
Ignitia (agri-tech). 
To improve farmers EWS and enhance 
preparedness.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Propcom+ has linked Ignitia to some of our 
partners. The partners have shown willinginess to 
subscribe to Ignitia's services, Premier seed has 
subscribe, Arzikin Noma is currently in talks with 
Ignitia, while CMD a non  seed partner has also 
subscribed. 
Some partners indicated that the cost is high and as 
such they did not subscribe.
1. Some partners pilot partnerships with input 
producing companies e.g Seed Project and 
Dangote Fertilizer.
To subsidize cost of inputs for farmers and 
ensure timely arrival. 
2. Piloting collaboration between partners and 
Ignitia (agri-tech). 
To improve farmers EWS and enhance 
preparedness.


key: source
string_value:
/Users/olusojiapampa/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/Documents/Proposals/PropCom/PropCom+/propcom-rrca/data/corpus/30_intervention_C_electrical_vehicles_evs/M3a_PEA Report on E-mobility.pdf


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Political Economic Analysis for 
Electrical Mobility to Stimulate 
Changes in Agricultural 
Development Delivery


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2 
 
About Propcom+ 
Propcom+ is an eight-year (2023 -2030), rural and agricultural market development 
programme supporting climate-resilient and sustainable agriculture and forestry that benefits 
people, climate and nature.  
 
The programme aims to support 3.79 million people, 50% of whom will be women, to adopt 
and scale sustainable agricultural practices that increase productivity and climate resilience 
while reducing emissions and protecting natural ecosystems.  
 
Propcom+ is funded by the UK government and is managed by Palladium and a consortium 
of partners including DevLearn, The Policy Practice and Social Development Direct.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
3 
 
Table of Contents 
 
Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... 3 
Acronyms ................................................................................................................................... 3 
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 5 
1. Background ...................................................................................................................... 6 
1.1. Climate Change as a Trigger .................................................................................... 6


key: chroma:document
string_value:
1.2. Stakeholders in the E-Mobility Sector: Attributes and Perceptions .......................... 8 
2. The Oil and Gas Industry and EVs ................................................................................ 10 
3. Decision-making and coordination of E-mobility in Nigeria: How it works .................... 10 
4. Dynamics that shape policies and decisions within the subsector. .............................. 11 
5. Complexity of policy formulation and implementation in the agricultural e-mobility 
ecosystem. ............................................................................................................................... 12 
6. The role of the stakeholders particularly the private sector in Propcom+ target states


key: chroma:document
string_value:
6. The role of the stakeholders particularly the private sector in Propcom+ target states 
(Jigawa, Kano and Kaduna) etc as drivers of the alternative transportation market .............. 13 
7. Constraints and opportunities (including policy-related) within the e-mobility subsector 
especially in the target states (Jigawa, Kano and Kaduna) .................................................... 14 
8. Constraints and opportunities within the financial sector to accelerate access to E-
mobility for Smallholder Farmers, especially in the target states (Jigawa, Kano and Kaduna)
 15 
9. Bottlenecks to getting licensing for agricultural technology startup companies. .......... 15 
10. Dynamics that shape the adoption of e-mobility services in the private and public


key: chroma:document
string_value:
10. Dynamics that shape the adoption of e-mobility services in the private and public 
extension delivery model ......................................................................................................... 16 
Section 12: An overview of the stakeholders involved in the coordination of the e-mobility 
service delivery to drive advocacy and adoption of market-driven extension services .......... 17 
 
Acronyms  
Acronym Explanation 
AFDB African Development Bank 
BAU Business As Usual 
BMO Business Member Organizations 
BRT Bus Rapid Transit 
CEO Chief Executive Officer 
CNG Compressed Natural Gas 
CoP Conference of Parties  
CSR Corporate Social Responsibility


key: chroma:document
string_value:
4 
 
DFI Development Finance Institution 
EB Electric Bus 
ELAN Equipment Leasing Association of Nigeria  
ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program 
ETO Energy Transition Office 
EV Electric Vehicles 
FMT Federal Ministry of Transportation 
FX Forex Exchange 
FGN Federal Government of Nigeria 
FME Federal Ministry of Environment 
GDP Gross Domestic Product 
GHG Green House Gas 
ICE Internal Combustion Engines 
IFC International Finance Corporation 
NADDC National Automotive Design Development Council 
NAIDP Nigerian Automotive Industry Development Plan 
NARTO National Association of Transport Owners 
NCC National Climate Council 
NDC Nationally Determined Contributions 
NDE National Directorate of Employment 
NERC National Electricity Regulatory Commission  
O&G Oil and Gas


key: chroma:document
string_value:
NDE National Directorate of Employment 
NERC National Electricity Regulatory Commission  
O&G Oil and Gas 
OCEL Oando Clean Energy Limited 
PEA Program Environmental Assessment 
PPIAF Public–Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility 
REA Rural Electrification Agency


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5 
 
Executive Summary 
Climate change has had a significant impact on our lives and business. The impact of global 
warming reinforces the need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions daily. The lack of 
wide acceptability and recognition of our daily activities on climate change is one of the 
reasons why more action has not been taken. A significant number of persons cannot attribute 
their daily actions or business practices as impacting the earth negatively and causing earth 
warming.  
 
Nigeria is a signatory to many protocols and agreements to reduce global emissions. Nigeria 
has participated actively in all Conference of Parties (CoP) on climate change. Beyond 
participation, there have not been significant interventions to reduce the impact. The problem


key: chroma:document
string_value:
participation, there have not been significant interventions to reduce the impact. The problem 
is not a lack of capacity or awareness. The challenges include the level of poverty in the land, 
socioeconomic issues and perhaps the most significant is Nigeria’s dependence on oil and 
gas as a source of revenue , with O il & Gas ( O&G) as the highest contributor of F oreign 
Exchange (FX). The economy is built on crude oil sales that drive over 65% of the Gross 
Domestic Product ( GDP) despite contributing less than 9% to the GDP. The focus on 
improving the utilisation of gas, building a downstream economy, and pricing petrol shuts out 
other conversations needed to reduce emissions that Nigeria has pledged to. O&G 
dependency is now an obstacle to other sector development.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
dependency is now an obstacle to other sector development. 
 
In the past years, agriculture was the highest contributor to the GDP. Agriculture is still the 
largest employer of labour in Nigeria. The current contribution of the sector to GDP is less than 
21%. Despite this, Nigeria imports about $10b worth of food yearly. Several constraints give 
rise to this. Outdated practices leading to poor yield occasioned by several factors , including 
security, poor financing and poor use of technology, give rise to low contribution.  Decreased 
rainfall, soil texture, and similar environmental conditions give rise to poor yields. The rising 
cost of diesel and petrol has substantially increased the cost of food in markets. The lack of


key: chroma:document
string_value:
cost of diesel and petrol has substantially increased the cost of food in markets. The lack of 
adequate storage conditions allows for the wastage of food not sold daily. The farmer is poorer 
as a result. Very few farmers in Nigeria can access cold room systems. The dependency on 
trucks and trailers to move produce within Nigeria has cost implications for food prices. A  
sharp rise in the price of petrol has led to push cost inflation coupled with security challenges.  
ICE vehicles emit about 48% of current emissions of Co2, with Nigeria ranked 4th in Africa as 
it pertains to global emissions of carbon dioxide. 
 
There have been conversations and investments in the development of e -mobility in Nigeria.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
There have been conversations and investments in the development of e -mobility in Nigeria. 
The country lags behind other African countries of similar economic size in the market for e -
mobility. There are many challenges surrounding the development of an EV market in Nigeria. 
There will be constraints to driving e-mobility, and significant challenges will be faced when 
substituting ICE vehicles. Successful adoption of E-mobility will cause significant displacement 
to established markets for ICE vehicles and the supply chain of fossil fuels. The strategy for 
delivery must focus on inclusion while catering for displacement with profit as a driver. The 
crowding-in effect that arises in markets for first movers is only possible when users of EVs


key: chroma:document
string_value:
crowding-in effect that arises in markets for first movers is only possible when users of EVs 
can sell the gains. There are policy hurdles, there will be financing challenges given the 
significant devaluation of the Naira, and there will be challenges of infrastructure as well. The 
good news is that e-mobility has commenced in Nigeria. Notably, the private sector has been 
at the forefront of driving it despite the lack of a stable national grid and the current 
socioeconomic challenges.  
 
The PEA attempts to capture current challenges, conversations, and some stakeholder 
analysis that hinder the growth of the EV market in general and indicates how the agricultural 
sector can benefit from it. The report also speaks to the integration of extension workers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
sector can benefit from it. The report also speaks to the integration of extension workers 
through sector-wide engagements using a market development strategy.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
6 
 
1. Background  
E-Mobility “comprises all street vehicles that are powered by an electric motor and primarily 
get their energy from the power grid – in other words, they can be recharged externally. It is 
an alternative to Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). E -mobility supports climate change 
mitigation and adaptation. Studies indicate that the emission from ICE is about 28% of total 
contributions to the National Determined Contributions in Nigeria.  The development of e -
mobility was primarily to reduce emissions using alternative clean energy sources. The key is 
that the energy sources that provide energy for the charging points for the vehicles are 
powered by renewable energy for success.  
 
Nigeria has a significant history of developing e-mobility. From 1971 to 2014, the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Nigeria has a significant history of developing e-mobility. From 1971 to 2014, the 
transportation sector’s average yearly  contribution to the country’s total CO² emissions from 
fuel combustion was 48%. The government projected that by 2035, greenhouse gas (GHG) 
emissions from the transport sector could increase by up to 50% and by almost 100% by 2050 
under the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Nigeria’s participation in various climate change 
programs, such as the annual Conference of Parties (CoP) workshop s, has created more 
awareness of the need to properly tackle climate problems. Hence, transitioning to e-mobility 
is pertinent in decarbonising the transport sector in Nigeria. However, a ccelerating the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
is pertinent in decarbonising the transport sector in Nigeria. However, a ccelerating the 
adoption of electric buses, two -wheelers, three -wheelers and cars requires substantial 
financial and technical resources that Nigeria cannot afford now. 
 
Despite this, Nigeria, in 2021, launched the first locally assembled electric vehicle, Hyundai 
Kona, made by Stallion Motors . Since then , more possibilities for EVs in the country  have 
been opening. The Lagos state government plans to deploy no fewer than 1000 electric buses 
(EBs) in the next 24 months. The state, in collaboration with Oando Clean Energy Limited 
(OCEL), has already deployed two e-vehicles (EVs) to prove the concept. There are plans to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
(OCEL), has already deployed two e-vehicles (EVs) to prove the concept. There are plans to 
increase this to 50 buses during the pilot phase. In July last year, Ogun state launched the E-
mobility and Gas -Mobility programme , which will swap petrol -dependent motorcycles and 
tricycles for electricity-powered ones.  There are several other initiatives at the federal and 
state level that are facilitating e-mobility.  
 
Several private sector investors are also participating in the development of e -mobility in 
Nigeria. Several i ndigenous companies in Nigeria have already introduced their electric 
vehicle designs in the market, indicating further development and production. ThinkBikes, a


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vehicle designs in the market, indicating further development and production. ThinkBikes, a 
nonprofit organisation, started the delivery of its locally produced electric tricycles to customers 
in Nigeria in 2022. Possible EVs , a Nigerian electric mobility firm, is gearing up to launch EV 
assembly plants in Nigeria that will produce up to 10,000 EVs annually.  Saglev, a United 
States EV manufacturer , has finalised plans to begin assembling electric vehicles at its 
assembly plant in Ikorodu, Lagos State. 
1.1. Climate Change as a Trigger  
In 2021 , Nigeria also submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate 
Change an update to its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC ), updating the previous


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Change an update to its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC ), updating the previous 
ones from 2017, confirming the unconditional target to reduce emissions by 20% below 
business as usual (BAU) and increased the conditional target to reduce emissions from 45% 
below BAU to 47% by 2030. The NDC include actions on the e nergy and transport sectors, 
but these documents are not publicly available. In particular, the transpor t sector is noted as 
generating 21% of the country’s GHG emissions as of 2018. Actions in the transport sector 
include:  
• 100,000 extra buses by 2030


key: chroma:document
string_value:
7 
 
• BRT accounting for over 22% of pax-km by 2030 
• 25% of trucks and buses using CNG by 2030 
• All vehicles meet the Euro III emission limits by 2030 and Euro IV by 2030 
1.1.1. Challenges of E-mobility Development in Nigeria  
• High Initial Purchase Cost:  The initial purchase cost of electric vehicles is quite 
expensive. The current  purchase cost of E -automobiles ranges from $60,000 -
$100,000. The average exchange rate for the dollar is NGN 1450. That makes the cost 
of acquisition of new Electric Vehicles ( EVs) unaffordable for most Nigerians. Now , 
there is no supply of second-hand EVs for underdeveloped economies such as Nigeria. 
There is also no widespread financing for electric vehicles locally. These challenges


key: chroma:document
string_value:
There is also no widespread financing for electric vehicles locally. These challenges 
can be overcome. This will be discussed later in the paper. 
• Infrastructure and Capacity Challenges: There is a lack of infrastructure to support 
EV charging. There have been some developments, but not at the scale necessary to 
support significant investments in the sector. Underpinning this is also a lack of 
capacity to support its development.   
• Grid reliability and Electricity Access: Recently, the Federal Government of Nigeria 
attempted to decentralise power supply through amendments to the Electricity Act. 
This was  part of interventions to improve access to power. The National Electricity 
Regulation Commission also classified supply into different bands based on the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Regulation Commission also classified supply into different bands based on the 
number of hours of supply. The band classification increased tariffs substantially with 
“agreements” of increased supply. There are also policies by the Rural Electrification 
Agency (REA) to improve rural supply. Currently , less than 80% of Nigerians have 
access to regular power.  
• High Dependency of Nigeria on Oil and Gas revenues: Nigeria earns over 90% of 
its foreign revenues from exporting crude oil, making the future of fossil fuels a major 
concern. As the global EV market continues to mature, Nigerian policymakers could 
worry about negative impacts on Nigeria's crude oil exports to Europe and Asia  and 
reduced local demand. This is not a trivial concern; in April 2019, the Nigerian senate


key: chroma:document
string_value:
reduced local demand. This is not a trivial concern; in April 2019, the Nigerian senate 
rejected a bill to phase out fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 on account of the political -
economic realities of the oil & gas sector. Despite the partial removal of petrol  
subsidies, there is no strong desire to depend less on fossil fuels as the primary means 
of energy. It should also be noted that Nigeria's energy transition is gas-based.  
• Lack of a Policy and Enabling Regulatory Framework:  There are attempts at 
developing a concerted policy to facilitate investments in EVs. The lack of policies that 
will drive coordination and promote strong regulations for market development is a big 
hindrance to increasing the market for development. Countries like Ethiopia have


key: chroma:document
string_value:
hindrance to increasing the market for development. Countries like Ethiopia have 
strong policies that have enabled strong development and use of electric vehicles.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
8 
 
1.2. Stakeholders in the E-Mobility Sector: Attributes and Perceptions  
 
Policy and 
Regulatory  
Roles and Views  Engagement  
Federal Ministry 
of Transportation 
(FMT) 
Supervisory role of agencies of 
Departments responsible for the 
framework for e-mobility and delivery 
policies that will enable e-mobility in 
Nigeria  
Limited to developing the 
framework for e-mobility 
with a poor understanding of 
how to deliver the 
framework for delivery.  
Limited capacity to deliver a 
roadmap for e-mobility.   
FMT is good for 
engagement and building 
capacity on understanding 
to develop a roadmap. 
National 
Automotive 
Design 
Development 
Council (NADDC) 
In 2023, the NADDC adopted a new 
10-year Nigerian Automotive Industry 
Development Plan (NAIDP), which


key: chroma:document
string_value:
In 2023, the NADDC adopted a new 
10-year Nigerian Automotive Industry 
Development Plan (NAIDP), which 
includes incentives for automotive 
industry manufacturers, investors, 
and developers to scale up EV 
adoption in Nigeria. The plan also 
promotes local EV production, with 
tax relief for EV manufacturers and 
licensing requirements established 
for auto assembly plants in the 
country.  
Credible partner for 
engagement. Leading on 
plans to deepen the 
availability of EVs in Nigeria. 
Limited by statutory 
responsibility, it will need 
the other agencies with 
which it can work. NADDC 
can play the role of 
coordination. 
Rural 
Electrification 
Agency 
REA is responsible for providing 
mini-grids and supporting the 
development of e-mobility. Last year,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Agency 
REA is responsible for providing 
mini-grids and supporting the 
development of e-mobility. Last year, 
the agency commissioned a study of 
the potential for e-mobility in the 
market and the use of mini-grids to 
support its development. This was 
delivered through the National 
Electrification Project.  
Kano, Kaduna, and Jigawa 
states have been identified 
as key partners to work with 
in developing renewable 
energy charging points for 
EVs. REA has both the 
capacity and the mandate to 
deliver the EV market in 
rural communities in the 
country. 
Energy Transition 
Office  
The office has undertaken a series of 
stakeholder consultations towards 
the development of e-mobility in 
Nigeria. It has both the capacity and 
the convening power to support


key: chroma:document
string_value:
the development of e-mobility in 
Nigeria. It has both the capacity and 
the convening power to support 
delivery. The key challenge is that 
the agency is not focused on rural EV 
markets. However, there is the 
possibility of knowledge transfer. 
This a proactive agency to 
engage with because it is 
accessible and open to 
initiatives and ideas to 
deepen EV development.  
National Climate 
Council 
The NCC is tasked with reducing 
emissions in Nigeria, among other 
responsibilities. The council is 
mandated to look at developing 
interventions that will reduce the 
National Determined Contributions. 
The agency has not shown a strong 
NCC is not a key partner to 
engage with for the 
development of the EV. The 
new committee led by the 
SA to the President on


key: chroma:document
string_value:
engage with for the 
development of the EV. The 
new committee led by the 
SA to the President on 
Media Ajuri Ngelale is more 
critical at the moment.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
9 
 
Policy and 
Regulatory  
Roles and Views  Engagement  
interest in supporting EVs that will 
reduce emissions and contributions 
to global warming. NCC now is 
disjointed without clear roles. The 
Green Council seems to usurp most 
its responsibilities. 
National 
Electricity 
Regulatory 
Commission  
NERC is responsible for the 
regulation of all Electricity Generation 
and Distribution Companies. NERC 
has not invested significantly in e-
mobility development particularly as it 
relates to charging points support 
through tariff pricing an essential part 
of e mobility delivery  
There is a need to engage 
with NERC on 
understanding and 
supporting this concept. 
NERC has the mandate to  
regulate the power sector 
and can use tariffs to 
stimultate investments in


key: chroma:document
string_value:
NERC has the mandate to  
regulate the power sector 
and can use tariffs to 
stimultate investments in 
charging point using 
renewable energy  
Private Sector 
Players 
Roles and Views  Engagement  
Financial 
Institutions 
Sterling Bank has led investments in 
e-mobility. Sterling bank has 
sponsored some Hackathon to raise 
awareness and stimulate investors in 
e-mobility. It is the pioneer bank in 
this subsector. However, the appetite 
for financing e-mobility is quite low 
amongst Nigerian banks and 
financial institutions. The challenges 
are lack of understanding of the 
concepts, few proof of concept and 
limited funds available. 
Sterling bank is proof that 
Nigerian financial 
institutions can fund e-
mobility if there is more 
awareness of the potential


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Nigerian financial 
institutions can fund e-
mobility if there is more 
awareness of the potential 
for returns. There can be 
gains from asking that 
banks undertake some CSR 
initiatives in e-mobility 
preparatory to deeper 
engagements towards more 
credit availability.  
Renewable 
Energy Service 
Providers  
There is significant interest by these 
groups to provide support to e-
mobility. Oando Energy, Sahara 
Energy have conducted detailed 
studies on how renewable energy 
can support e-mobility. Some of 
these companies have also invested 
in the technology that can facilitate 
increase e-mobility in Kaduna and 
Kano States 
These groups benefit from 
e-mobility and will drive it if 
there is sufficient 
engagement, and the right 
polices. It is in their


key: chroma:document
string_value:
e-mobility and will drive it if 
there is sufficient 
engagement, and the right 
polices. It is in their 
business interest to deliver 
e-mobility. The technology is 
already available. The 
stated target is to build 
around existing demand 
making use of existing 
infrastructure.  
Electricity Vehicle 
Manufacturers  
Hyundai Nigeria launched the first 
locally assembled electric vehicle.  
There are independent importers of 
electric vehicles into Nigeria as well.  
The market is mainly focused on 
production of two wheelers and three 
The support required by this 
group include raising 
awareness on the EV, policy 
and regulatory framework as 
well as financing. The 
market will grow as the price 
of petrol rises and gas 
remains unavailable.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
10 
 
Policy and 
Regulatory  
Roles and Views  Engagement  
wheelers based on demand and 
current market affordability.  
There is a desire to grow the market 
if the right policies are put in place.  
The design's energy sources are a 
mix of battery technology, electricity 
points from the main, and solar 
panels. The estimated market size is 
less than $1m as of today. The 
market direction is based on the 
government's current policies, which 
are more gas-based.  
Development 
Finance 
Institutions(DFIs) 
and Donors 
DFIs are significantly interested in 
supporting the development of EVs in 
Nigeria. Many low-interest facilities 
are available for clean and green 
energy provision. The World Bank, 
Afrexim Bank, African Development 
Bank, and others have special


key: chroma:document
string_value:
energy provision. The World Bank, 
Afrexim Bank, African Development 
Bank, and others have special 
facilities to support e-mobility or 
grants to facilitate the market's 
development. Some of these 
organisations have also supported 
research on how to actualize an EV 
market in Nigeria. 
The key challenge is a lack 
of coordination and 
alignment of these 
interventions.  
What is needed is to work 
with Federal and State 
governments to develop 
roadmaps to increase the 
EV market. 
 
2. The Oil and Gas Industry and EVs  
A big group of stakeholders are the Nigerian citizens who will benefit from EVs. The continuous 
rise in the price of petrol and other fossil products has led many to source power from


key: chroma:document
string_value:
rise in the price of petrol and other fossil products has led many to source power from 
renewable energy for their homes. The transition to electric vehicles stems from a lack of 
awareness and understanding of the EV utility, poor reliability perceptions due to poor power, 
and a high initial cost outlay. These groups need engagements to ramp up the purchase of 
EVs. 
 
There will be resistance by the oil and gas industry towards the development of the EV market. 
The understanding of most in that industry is that EV threatens the consumption of fossil fuels. 
Most, as of now, do not even support CNG as an alternative to petrol and diesel. There will be 
further resistance from oil marketers, depot owners and trailer owners. These groups perceive


key: chroma:document
string_value:
further resistance from oil marketers, depot owners and trailer owners. These groups perceive 
EVs as threats, not as opportunities. Any strategy towards increasing the number of EVs must 
cater for these groups or include them in market development.  
 
3. Decision-making and coordination of E-mobility in Nigeria: How it works  
Nigeria is a crude oil exporting nation. The sale from crude oil is the major source of earnings 
of foreign exchange in Nigeria. The governance model of Nigeria has the powerplay 
dependent on crude oil and other variants. With the current devaluation of the currency and 
the removal of subsidy on petrol, the government has focused on gas as an alternative, 
particularly Compressed Natural Gas (CNG).  Now the government is seeking interventions to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
11 
 
cushion the effect of subsidy removal with deep considerations to reduce the cost to 
government given the new international prices of petroleum and the devaluation. The 
government has also declared this decade the decade of gas. All the factors above make it 
difficult for the government to pursue an e-mobility strategy. Where does the future e-mobility 
lie? 
 
The Federal  government of Nigeria has recently  established a Presidential Committee on 
Climate Action and Green Economic Solutions. The committee has a mandate that effectively 
designates it as the key driver of policies and interventions towards fulfilling obligations that 
Nigeria has signed on to re duce emissions and manage the impact of climate change. The


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Nigeria has signed on to re duce emissions and manage the impact of climate change. The 
opportunity for influence lies with this committee. One of the key highlights of the committee 
is the number of government financing firms within it. There are also some private sector 
players within the committee as well. This Presidential committee is set up for key stakeholder 
engagements with a focus to raise funding for the development of a green economy for the 
country.  
 
The Federal Ministry of Transport that ought to lead on policy direction on e-mobility is weak; 
rather the National Automotive Development and Design Council (NADDC) currently 
champions the policy direction. The NADDC has sponsored a Bill : The National Automotive


key: chroma:document
string_value:
champions the policy direction. The NADDC has sponsored a Bill : The National Automotive 
Industry Development Plan at the National Assembly for consideration. The Bill has significant 
consideration to produce electric vehicles with suitable incentives needed to galvanise action 
on electric cars. Supporting this Bill is the Electric Veh icle Development plan to ensure that 
there are zero emissions by the year 2060. This plan is yet to be ratified for lack of champions 
in the government ecosystem. The office of Chief of Staff has a Special Assistant and a Special 
Adviser focusing on energy. Both are in good stead to push for ratification of the plan . The 
Senate Committee Chairman on Climate Change can support passage of the Automotive


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Senate Committee Chairman on Climate Change can support passage of the Automotive 
Industry Bill. The challenge is oil. The Crude Oil and Gas sector dominates all discourse on 
climate change in Nigeria and as such any initiative not addressing their interest, rarely has 
traction.  
 
4. Dynamics that shape policies and decisions within the subsector.  
Identify power structures, alliances, and informal networks that influence sector -related 
decisions, such as  bundling e -mobility provision with financial services and market -driven 
business/ partnerships within the agricultural transport/ logistics ecosystem. 
 
E-mobility is currently largely driven by private sector-based initiatives. There has been some


key: chroma:document
string_value:
E-mobility is currently largely driven by private sector-based initiatives. There has been some 
push from international organisations such as SEE4all and other international organisations 
to revive initiatives started by the Buhari administration under the office of the Vice President  
by the CEO and Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Sustainable Energy 
for All and Co -Chair of UN-Energy: Ms Damilola Ogunbiyi. She submitted a roadmap to the 
then-President on the development of e-mobility. The plan is yet to gain traction. The politics 
behind its non -adoption is based on the who and not the plan. To this effect, there  are 
unsubstantiated rumours that the present Minister of Power will be replaced by the President.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
unsubstantiated rumours that the present Minister of Power will be replaced by the President. 
These rumours give rise to a focus on power play rather than policies. There is a general 
struggle for direction within the leadership. There are factions that make key decisions wi th 
the driver for adoption being access to a market and early advantage.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
12 
 
E-mobility will cause some significant displacement within the transport sector that is presently 
dominated by a section of the country. There are ties of transport trucks to agricultural produce 
and petroleum products haulage. The National Association of Transport Owners (NARTO) are 
a strong cartel of influence in both the agricultural market and the oil and gas downstream 
market. NARTO will resist e-mobility because it will damage their business. The president now 
is perceived as anti -North by many politi cians.  The Presidency is careful not to project the 
thinking that instituting any policy that projects EV will be perceived to be against Northe rn 
interest. The Vice President , who is the  lead on agricultural interventions  and chair of the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
interest. The Vice President , who is the  lead on agricultural interventions  and chair of the 
National E conomic Council, is cautious in making policy pronouncements after being 
cautioned when he echoed that the Tinubu government will support the establishment of 
Commodity Boards. He had to walk back that statement even though the Renewed Hope 
Agenda and the Agricultural manifesto prior to elections indicated that a Commodities Board 
would be established.  
 
The current state of play has made the Minister of Agriculture largely insignificant in the 
scheme of things. The balkanisation of the green economy decision-making by excluding the 
National Climate Council (NCC ), dismissing the Director General and replacing him with a


key: chroma:document
string_value:
National Climate Council (NCC ), dismissing the Director General and replacing him with a 
seemingly less qualified person is a clear pointer that only the inner cabinet of the president 
and those that are close to him (the President) shall be involved in decision making. The 
success of e -mobility in Agriculture must obtain the buy -in of the President’s son , Mr. Se yi 
Tinubu, for it to become successful and attainable with financing coming in as soon as that 
‘presidential nod’ is given.  
 
The advised process is to situate the e-mobility leadership within the presidency and present 
it as a subsidy-reducing intervention alongside Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiatives  to 
gain traction. It must be sold by entities that have no prior political linkages with the previous


key: chroma:document
string_value:
gain traction. It must be sold by entities that have no prior political linkages with the previous 
administration or politicians rumoured to be interested in running for elections. The current 
ministries of transport, electricity and agriculture are very incapable of driving e-mobility under 
the current structures.  
 
5.  Complexity of policy formulation and implementation in the agricultural e-
mobility ecosystem.  
Policies are driven by interests in Nigeria as anywhere else. The conventional policy route that 
is based on an agenda does not apply in most cases. Agriculture is a key contributor to the 
GDP and a key sector where there is a high intersection of politics in decision-making. The 
lack of a policy around e -mobility for agriculture emanates from three key issues: The


key: chroma:document
string_value:
lack of a policy around e -mobility for agriculture emanates from three key issues: The 
prominence of oil and gas across all economic spheres of Nigeria linked to the use of diesel 
and petrol for vehicles based on margins, electricity and the lack of it leading to investments 
in other sources of energy with a focus on renewables, the ownership structure of trucks and 
other means of conveyance of products.  
 
In the past, haulage outside the markets was done through train lines. The national rail line 
was linked to markets and built around such. Farmers, produce -buyers and livestock 
merchants sent their products to train stations. The lack of maintenance and  covert-based 
politics led to the collapse of the train system. It was replaced by trucks and trailers (articulated


key: chroma:document
string_value:
politics led to the collapse of the train system. It was replaced by trucks and trailers (articulated 
vehicles). These were owned by a separate group of investors who then became powerful and 
wealthy. The sense is that these groups will lose out if there is a rise in CNG and or other 
sources of energy beyond diesel and petrol as fuel for their cars. E-mobility is far from the top 
of the policy and decision-making process.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
13 
 
There are many challenges for e-mobility: 
a) The first is the unreliability and unavailability of power in many rural areas where there 
are farms.  
b) The second is the state of the roads leading to those farms, which are mostly in a bad 
state. 
c) The third is the cost of purchase of EVs , the lack of a second -hand market where 
cheaper vehicles can be purchased, unlike Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) and the 
non-availability of charging stations. 
d) The fourth factor is  the dearth of technical skills that can support the use of EVs in 
some rural economies. These thoughts hinder proposals on e -mobility conversations 
for the agricultural sector.  
e) There is also the greater factor of a lack of understanding of the e-mobility ecosystem.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
e) There is also the greater factor of a lack of understanding of the e-mobility ecosystem. 
This lack of understanding leads to an inability to see the development as a profitable 
venture that will thrive with strong policy support.  
 
Policy is either formulated from the government’s position or driven by the advocacy of those 
who will benefit from its formulation and implementation. The absence of a developed market 
system and regulatory framework does not give room for the development of beneficial policies 
to strengthen and coordinate the sector. The awareness and understanding or prioritisation of 
climate change itself is quite low amongst Nigerians leading to low demand for the reduction


key: chroma:document
string_value:
climate change itself is quite low amongst Nigerians leading to low demand for the reduction 
in emissions from ICE vehicles. At the centre of it is the need to upscale and outscale climate 
change education, a link of e -mobility to opportunities for profits and seeking champions in 
three key areas: journalism, politics and the business community with the inclusion of NARTO 
as part of the advocacy.  
 
6. The role of the stakeholders particularly the private sector in Propcom+ 
target states (Jigawa, Kano and Kaduna) etc as drivers of the  alternative 
transportation market  
The private sector engagement is well ahead of policy development in the provision of EVs in 
Nigeria. Several actors across the value chain , despite the lack of clear policy options , have


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Nigeria. Several actors across the value chain , despite the lack of clear policy options , have 
made significant investments in the provision of EVs. Most have restricted their services to 
urban cities and towns. Lagos, Abuja and Kano have the most in terms of investments. There 
are pertinent questions EV investors across the value chain ask before committing funds. The 
questions are the following. 
• Where is the power source going to come from? 
• How will the generated power be distributed? 
• How are the vehicles going to be charged? 
• Will EV owners charge at home or public stations? 
• Who will own and operate the charging public stations? 
Once there is some clarity on these, the access to finance element, or whether the purchasers


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Once there is some clarity on these, the access to finance element, or whether the purchasers 
of the vehicles can access finance, is often debated. It is argued that there must be incentives 
that attract investors to both urban towns in Kano, Kaduna, and Jigawa and support  rural 
areas.  
Facilitating investments in these states must start with some credit and tax incentives. Banks 
such as Sterling Bank have a clean energy finance department. Partnership s with state 
governments or multilateral institutions will incentivise and create a credit scheme for the initial 
purchase of EVs. Financing can create an assembly hub for companies such as Jet Motors 
that have pioneered bus technology and vans that can be used to support agricultural markets.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
that have pioneered bus technology and vans that can be used to support agricultural markets. 
In partnerships with the Automotive Council, clea n energy companies such as Oando clean


key: chroma:document
string_value:
14 
 
energy can provide the needed energy sources that can be a mix of renewable energy and 
fossil fuels at inception.  
For the agricultural markets, a good strategy would be to start with two —and three-wheel 
vehicles that then demonstrate that EVs' running costs are significantly less than operating an 
ICE vehicle in the long run. Kano and Kaduna already have schools and institutions that can 
support the technology required to keep EVs  on the roads. The National Directorate of 
Employment (NDE) can be a partner for technical skills development if supported by donor 
institutions and grants.  
Several donors and development partners are engaged in supporting the FGN with the 
development of policies and strategies for the EV space. The Public-Private Infrastructure


key: chroma:document
string_value:
development of policies and strategies for the EV space. The Public-Private Infrastructure 
Advisory Facility (PPIAF), funded by the World Bank Energy Sector Management Assistance 
Program (ESMAP), is implementing a ‘Sustainable Green e-Mobility Solutions’ programme for 
Nigeria. This initiative is aimed to support the FGN with the development of an integrated e -
mobility strategy, including policy and regulatory incentives to promote private sector 
participation and mobilise private sector financing for the sector from available research.  
For smallholder farmers, the incentive is to save money, particularly with the high cost of petrol 
that these farmers use in ICE vehicles. These farmers will benefit from already ongoing


key: chroma:document
string_value:
that these farmers use in ICE vehicles. These farmers will benefit from already ongoing 
poverty alleviation interventions at both Federal and State levels. Cash transfers are much 
discussed as social protection interventions. These are not sustainable and do not drive 
growth; tying EV market development through supporting the purchase of EVs by smallholder 
farmers is a more sustainable alternative and has the benefit of market development, 
economic growth and reduction of emissions. This should be encouraged and considered.   
7. Constraints and opportunities (including policy-related) within the e-mobility 
subsector especially in the target states (Jigawa, Kano and Kaduna)  
The most significant constraint mitigating against e -mobility in these states is the lack of


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The most significant constraint mitigating against e -mobility in these states is the lack of 
awareness. The level of awareness of e-mobility is low, which leads to the lack of investors 
seizing opportunities that exist in these states. The opportunity in these states is that there are 
significant small farming communities that farm crops that can be sustained by e-mobility. The 
easiest route is to integrate the state investment companies with existing warehouses owned 
by the government into e-mobility companies.  
 
Kano State probably has the highest number of tricycles in Nigeria. There are significant 
emissions and environmental consequences of this. Partnership with the state government to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
emissions and environmental consequences of this. Partnership with the state government to 
reduce this can be through e-mobility partnerships. That will bring down emissions significantly 
as well as increase the ability to tax that sector more effectively through effective monitoring 
and registration. Kaduna State plagued with banditry , will also benefit from an e -mobility 
partnership through a tracking process that can be introduced through hire purchase schemes 
that reduce the cost of upfront purchases . That will necessitate a policy enactment phasing 
out ICE vehicles whilst ensuring that retail outlets that sell ICE vehicles are part of the new 
scheme.  
 
Jigawa has significant investments in farming and has an underdeveloped free economic trade


key: chroma:document
string_value:
scheme.  
 
Jigawa has significant investments in farming and has an underdeveloped free economic trade 
zone at Maigatari in Jigawa State close to the Niger border. That facility has the capacity to 
be an assembling plant for EVs. The space is available with sufficien t expansion land. 
InvestJigawa is a good partner that can facilitate EV investments in the state. These can be a 
specialised hub for more specialised production of batteries and other EV parts necessary for 
the market. The topography of the state also presents a potential for large-scale solar panels 
that can generate clean energy for the plants and support renewable charging point 
technology.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
15 
 
 
Bayero University Kano has the largest solar hybrid plant, capable of 7.1 megawatts, that can 
be deployed to support E -mobility plants in Kano. The spare electricity generated by these 
plants can be sold cheaper than electricity from the mains. The key is to start with a 
coordinating agency that links these stak eholders together to advocate for more incentives, 
which then leads to policy formulation.  
 
8. Constraints and opportunities within the financial sector to accelerate 
access to E-mobility for Smallholder Farmers, especially in the target states 
(Jigawa, Kano and Kaduna)  
There is no clear-cut evidence of traditional funding for e-mobility good returns . For an 
effective agriculturally focused e-mobility intervention a framework that ties farm returns to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
effective agriculturally focused e-mobility intervention a framework that ties farm returns to 
investments in transport must be tied to commodities. To increase social inclusion as well as 
growth, the opportunity is in the adoption of the cooperative financing models. The concept 
must start with organising smallholder farmers into cooperatives supported by a grant model. 
There must also be an equity scheme where the farmer holds units in the finance cooperative 
that will drive e-mobility. The scheme should be supported by grants for an e-mobility scheme 
from Development Finance Institutions (DFIs). The constraints to the development of this 
scheme are many. They include culture, the lack of bookkeeping by many smallholder farmers/


key: chroma:document
string_value:
scheme are many. They include culture, the lack of bookkeeping by many smallholder farmers/ 
MSMEs and the understanding of non-interest banking and what it entails. This implies that in 
projecting the cooperative model, emphasis on noninterest finance schemes must be the 
selling point. 
Cooperative groups can use a voucher system to support the warehousing of produce using 
a delivery mechanism with EVs. The voucher system will attract some financing since the 
goods will be used as security for loans. The patronage of EVs forms part of the ecosystem 
for guaranteeing traffic and continued use. Women can participate in e -mobility and earn 
revenues from technical skills to support it.  
The key factors that can incentivise finance are the following.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
revenues from technical skills to support it.  
The key factors that can incentivise finance are the following. 
• Farmers learn bookkeeping and do so in their transactions  
• Farmers form cooperatives and support storage and warehousing for non -perishable 
goods 
• Farmers hire consultants to support them in accessing financing for the purchase of 
EVs for haulage and development of a management system through the cooperatives 
• Farmers enter into lease arrangements guaranteed by an external party, where their  
produce is the guarantor of the loan from a purchasing party.  
For it to be sustainable, such financial inclusion must be driven by profitability and good 
returns. Grants, while they could kickstart the process of financial inclusion, are  not a 
sustainable strategy.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
returns. Grants, while they could kickstart the process of financial inclusion, are  not a 
sustainable strategy.   
9. Bottlenecks to getting licensing for agricultural technology startup 
companies.  
 
Nigeria has a weak legal and regulatory framework in many sectors. There are also constraints 
occasioned by access to information and the commercialisation of processes that then lead to 
extortion of entities applying for licensing. The big challenge includes a weak patent process 
with no defined support for startups. Most farmers do not understand the business framework 
and do not have sufficient experience in dealing with government agencies. There is the 
challenge of resources  because the licensing proce ss is not cheap and can require


key: chroma:document
string_value:
16 
 
considerable resources that are  not usually available for startups. Another factor and 
challenge is the inability of startups to meet the compliance requirements needed for licensing. 
These issues are interlinked and complex but can be resolved with some simple interventions.  
 
It is, therefore, expedient to clarify and simplify processes and access to relevant regulatory 
agencies. The agencies must publish clear guidelines which should be simplified for farmers. 
Extension service schemes must be revived, and personnel trained on service provision 
should include licensing support, which will include compliance levels for licensing as well as 
the development of a rules guidance system for adoption by farmers.   Extension agents could


key: chroma:document
string_value:
the development of a rules guidance system for adoption by farmers.   Extension agents could 
be mandated to also  provide documentation support and advocate for impactful licensing 
processes. 
Such engagement will be able to address common challenges for licensing start-ups which 
include the following:  
•  Knowledge of the process and clarity of terms and requirements  
• Resource requirements for licensing application  
• Government red tape and bureaucracy difficulty  
• Compliance requirements by applicant 
• Engaging for the term required for the process to be completed  
 
In a listed form, the common challenges for licensing start up are the following. 
10.  Dynamics that shape the adoption of e -mobility services in the private and 
public extension delivery model


key: chroma:document
string_value:
10.  Dynamics that shape the adoption of e -mobility services in the private and 
public extension delivery model  
EV has growth potential in the next years as fossil fuel prices rise and more awareness and 
actions are taken  around global warming with improved coordination. The market 
development for products and services follows the same pattern in all sectors. The process 
begins with the selling of why the switch to e -mobility is advantageous to the farmer and 
agriculture in general. The pitch must be from a point of profitability and not emotive. The 
numbers must show the long-run cost savings that can be gained by using e-mobility. 
Public extension service delivery has not been as effective as it was designed to be. The


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Public extension service delivery has not been as effective as it was designed to be. The 
challenges facing extension services are multifaceted. The most obvious are supply chain 
challenges, which have recorded a lack of profitability,  and the looming insecurity in the 
delivery of extension services to farmers.  
How is this tied to private extension services? 
When Toyota designed the Lexus car, it had to be introduced to the public as a different car 
from the regular Toyota. By selecting targeted markets, it hired young professionals to visit 
these target markets to experience it through test drives . It was an experiential process of 
sales. For e-mobility, the link to extension services and the hypothetical question of who pays


key: chroma:document
string_value:
sales. For e-mobility, the link to extension services and the hypothetical question of who pays 
for that service could be approached using the same approach. The EV sales company could 
hire extension service workers who could pitch e-mobility to small farmer groups alongside 
other services. EV companies could provide support beyond e -mobility for it to be accepted 
and embraced by the farmers. The return on investment to EV companies could be layered 
on adoption with embedded benefits across the value chain. Higher profitability will increase 
patronage and strengthen the need and value for extension service workers.  
Another way that e -mobility adoption could strengthen institutional capacity is through


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Another way that e -mobility adoption could strengthen institutional capacity is through 
regulations. Regulations need to be developed with a defined legal framework This will be 
required to protect farmers and the EV market from abuse and exploitation. This is on the 
premise that the potentiality of a leasing framework will reduce the upfront cost of purchase 
and also address the ungainly profit along the chain  and the assurance of clarity of 
transactions to all concerned . Such a stance will not only drive the growth of the E -Mobility


key: chroma:document
string_value:
17 
 
sector; it will promote the development of a clear implementation strategy which will promote 
the integration of service personnel into supporting the purchase and maintenance of EVs . 
Sector-based institutions could expand their framework to strengthen the capacity of extension 
service providers, develop a guiding framework for the use of extension workers in the delivery 
of these services, and lastly, the profitability of the whole venture to all parties will be built on 
the assurance of the sustainability of the intervention.  
 
 
Section 12: An overview of the stakeholders involved in the 
coordination of the e-mobility service delivery to drive advocacy and 
adoption of market-driven extension services.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
adoption of market-driven extension services.   
 
The commencement of e -mobility service delivery has a simple framework which supports 
business development which must adopt the following key actionable processes. They are as 
follows:   
1. The development of an integrated , comprehensive policy, legal, and regulatory 
framework to promote and adopt EVs across Nigeria. 
2. Facilitation of a value chain and ecosystem that allows local manufacturing and or 
assembly of EVs locally. 
3. Development and  enhancement of e-mobility infrastructure capacity to facilitate 
adoption and widespread acceptability. 
4. Enhancement of local technical capacity and skills across the e-mobility value chain. 
5. Improvement of fiscal and non-fiscal measures to promote the adoption of EVs


key: chroma:document
string_value:
5. Improvement of fiscal and non-fiscal measures to promote the adoption of EVs  
6. Scale-up of socio-economic measures to improve adoption and reduce reliance on ICE 
vehicles. 
 
Stakeholder management and engagement are crucial for the delivery and raising of support 
across the above -listed items. The commencement points and intersection of stakeholders  
are centred on the following:  
(a) EV manufacturers who must access financing to commence operations. But in the 
light of the present cost of finance in Nigeria. The key is to seek a mix of grants, venture 
capitalists and DFIs to commence. That means that there must be structuring to start. 
There must be partnership development with the regulators and government to


key: chroma:document
string_value:
There must be partnership development with the regulators and government to 
promote policies that allow the creation of more value. That is done through advocacy 
working with Business Member Organisations (BMOs) and cooperatives supported by 
media partners. The sense is to examine the different service providers that need to 
provide input before markets can adop t and enjoy the service. The key stakeholders 
are the following. 
• Government through agencies such as NADDC and other partners : The role of 
government is to develop a policy regulatory framework for the development of the 
market. The government delivery machinery is ideally at the federal level so states 
could adopt/domesticate the policy . Currently, there is no clear policy for EV cars.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
could adopt/domesticate the policy . Currently, there is no clear policy for EV cars. 
There are plans that are yet to be ratified. The EV industry must advocate for this policy 
by lobbying through other interventions aimed at reducing emissions. The EV industry-
based advocacy should highlight commitments by Nigeria towards 2060 set for zero 
emissions. The government should be a key target group for advocacy. 
 
• Presidential Climate Committee  (which now supersedes t he National Climate 
Council): This committee is significant and key to the development of e -mobility. Six 
members of the committee are financing outfits that can facilitate cheaper credit to the 
industry. The engagement with the committee must be strategic. The engagement


key: chroma:document
string_value:
industry. The engagement with the committee must be strategic. The engagement 
must be transactional, and profit-driven despite it being a Presidential committee. The


key: chroma:document
string_value:
18 
 
EV industry should focus on targeted advocacy to unlock finance that is key for the 
development of the industry. The activation of the National Carbon Activation Market 
Plan is part of what the committee is expected to deliver. The Central Bank and Federal 
Ministries of Power, Environment and Budget and Planning are members. The CEOs 
of Infracorp, Credit Corp, and the CEO of REA are all also members. The committee 
is open to support to deliver on their mandate. These are the key stakeholders needed 
to drive the adoption of e-mobility across the country. There is a mix of policy, finance, 
deal structure, power and infrastructure that are all key components of the needed 
coordination for e-mobility.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
deal structure, power and infrastructure that are all key components of the needed 
coordination for e-mobility. 
 
• The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and State Ministries: Ideally this agency should 
lead the coordination and investment into extension service delivery supporting e -
mobility. The ministry is weak in its understanding of policy issues and leading on 
climate-smart agriculture. There are  opportunities in working with the Permanent 
Secretary who is open to partnerships to work to promote a market-based development 
and integration of extension services into e -mobility services. A good plan crafted at 
this level can dovetail into what states could adopt. 
 
• Ministries of Environment at both Federal and State levels: This ministry should


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• Ministries of Environment at both Federal and State levels: This ministry should 
lead on climate-smart initiatives. Its capacity is weak, and its understanding is poor, 
but it is a needed partner for continued growth and policy promotion. Beyond the 
presidential committee, it is the key department that can promote and champion 
policies that can drive e-mobility with the support of other partners and have piloted an 
e-mobility initiation along with REA. The Federal Ministry of Environment and variants 
in states must be key partners for delivering e-mobility. 
 
• Electricity distribution companies and off -grid developers: These are key to the 
growth and provision of infrastructure that is needed for the delivery of e-mobility. This


key: chroma:document
string_value:
growth and provision of infrastructure that is needed for the delivery of e-mobility. This 
group is the most challenged in terms of delivery due to the complexities of power 
generation and cost. The group also has sufficient leverage to demand incentives that 
can make power available for e-mobility at cheaper rates. Off-grid providers are critical 
in areas where power supply is lacking. Off-grid providers have the incentive to support 
e-mobility through the provision of charging points  and or batteries supported with 
maintenance. This is where extension services can be further integrated into delivery 
through training and franchising.  
 
• EV manufacturers: Either the two and three-cycle providers or cars and buses; this


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• EV manufacturers: Either the two and three-cycle providers or cars and buses; this  
is the core of their work. What is essential for this group is coordination and 
understanding advocacy. The market has significant potential for growth. That must be 
explored through demonstration and experiential marketing. Companies such as Max 
and Jet Motors are already outliers. A partnership with Mobile Power, Bob, Oando  
Clean Energy, and Sterling Bank is vital for delivery. There are several examples of 
facility-sharing projects across Africa that can be adapted for Nigeria. The market 
expansion must be driven by affordability. Term projections that do not drive 
profitability will not attain good results.  EV manufacturers face an uphill battle in


key: chroma:document
string_value:
profitability will not attain good results.  EV manufacturers face an uphill battle in 
tackling the dominance of Nigeria’s dependence on oil and gas and the Energy 
Transition Office (ETO) that has agreed on  gas as the key fuel for energy transition. 
There are also challenges on access to foreign exchange because of parts that are 
largely manufactured abroad. The p itch must be to develop alongside the sector and 
see gas as an input for electricity generation and distribution growth.  
 
• Finance institutions and grant -providing institutions for EV development: EVs 
have significant costs to get vehicles to the market. The upfront cost of purchasing EVs 
is quite significant. Traditional banking institutions now do not see the EV industry as


key: chroma:document
string_value:
is quite significant. Traditional banking institutions now do not see the EV industry as 
bankable. Funding for the EV is critical to get the industry going. Sources of finance 
for the EV ma rket have been DFI in many cases. For Nigeria, the Climate Finance 
Accelerator, Novastar Ventures, the African Development Bank (AFDB) , International


key: chroma:document
string_value:
19 
 
Finance Corporation (IFC), the Development Bank of Nigeria,  and others are or have 
provided funds for e -mobility companies. This , however, will spur long-term growth 
beyond initial market development.  Growth is only possible from transactions that can 
attract private sector funding beyond CSR initiatives or interventions. Scaling up will 
only happen from increased market penetration when the cost of use is less than the 
cost of use of ICE vehicles. The current advantage of rising prices of petrol and diesel 
might be an opportunity to create stronger awareness around EV running costs. The 
partnerships that the EV industry must forge are through leasing. The Equipment 
Leasing Association of Nigeria (ELAN) is a potential partner that can reduce the burden


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Leasing Association of Nigeria (ELAN) is a potential partner that can reduce the burden 
of the initial cost of purchase.  
 
• Technical and vocational schools across different locations : These schools can 
be a market for talents that support extension services and market development of 
EVs. The schools are also pools of talent that can provide technical services to the EV 
market. Nigeria has a high rate of unemployment. The EV industry requires substantial 
support to link it with consumers and become champions of the industry. There are 
colleges of Agriculture that have graduat es seeking employment. There is an 
opportunity to bring these groups on board. 
 
• The farmers and intended beneficiaries of e -mobility and technology will not


key: chroma:document
string_value:
• The farmers and intended beneficiaries of e -mobility and technology will not 
adopt new technology and services if there is no value addition. The size and 
categorisation of the farmer is insignificant. However, farming must be seen beyond a 
business as an essential service that needs support in a sustainable manner . A key 
need of farmers is extension service s that allow the farmer to focus on farming while 
extension workers create linkages to support and ancillary services. The dearth of 
extension workers a rose from a lack of supply based on the inability of farmers or 
support industries to fund personnel. The opportunity for engagement and retraining is 
there.  
 
In summary , the Agricultural extension service market exists within an interplay of several


key: chroma:document
string_value:
there.  
 
In summary , the Agricultural extension service market exists within an interplay of several 
actors and different engagements. The key is value addition, supported by answered 
questions on who pays for what, who trains, and how accessible the service is. E -mobility is 
one of the many services that can be developed and offered  to farmers. The pictorial 
representation is as depicted below.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Power to move: 
Accelerating the electric 
transport transition in 
sub-Saharan Africa
How governments, development partners, and private-sector  
stakeholders can build an enabling ecosystem for electric vehicles in 
the region.
McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 
February 2022
by Julian Conzade, Hauke Engel, Adam Kendall, and Gillian Pais


key: source
string_value:
/Users/olusojiapampa/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/Documents/Proposals/PropCom/PropCom+/propcom-rrca/data/corpus/30_intervention_C_electrical_vehicles_evs/Accelerating-the-electric-transport-transition-in-sub-Saharan-Africa_Final2.pdf


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Globally, the automotive future is looking 
increasingly electric, due to growing regulatory 
moves, including forthcoming bans on sales of 
internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, shifting 
consumer behavior, and ongoing improvements 
in battery and charging technology. By 2035, the 
world’s major automotive markets—the United 
States, European Union, and China—are expected 
to sell only electric vehicles (EVs), and by 2050, 80 
percent of the world’s vehicle sales are expected 
to be electric.1 EVs are a critical component of 
achieving climate neutrality (in Europe, for example, 
the life-cycle emissions of an EV are around 65 to 
85 percent lower than that of an ICE vehicle) and 
improving quality of life in cities by reducing air and 
noise pollution.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
improving quality of life in cities by reducing air and 
noise pollution.
This article seeks to answer two questions: How 
will the trend toward electric mobility play out in 
sub-Saharan Africa? What are the opportunities 
and challenges associated with the region’s electric 
transport future? 2 
Transport currently makes up 10 percent of Africa’s 
total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which is 
expected to increase in line with sub-Saharan 
Africa’s expanding vehicle parc (Exhibit 1). 3 In the 
six countries that make up around 70 percent of 
sub-Saharan Africa’s annual vehicle sales and 45 
percent of the region’s population (South Africa, 
Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Nigeria), 
the vehicle parc is expected to grow from 25 million


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Nigeria), 
the vehicle parc is expected to grow from 25 million 
vehicles today to an estimated 58 million by 2040, 
driven by urbanization and rising incomes. As its 
vehicle parc grows, the challenge for sub-Saharan 
Africa will be to push for more sustainable mobility 
and avoid the risk of becoming the dumping ground 
for the world’s unwanted used ICE vehicles.  
¹ “ Why the automotive future is electric, ” McKinsey, September 7, 2021. 
² For the purposes of this article, sub-Saharan Africa refers to all countries on the African continent except those in North Africa (Algeria, 
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia).
³ " Green Africa: A growth and resilience agenda for the continent, ” McKinsey, October 28, 2021. 
2


key: chroma:document
string_value:
³ " Green Africa: A growth and resilience agenda for the continent, ” McKinsey, October 28, 2021. 
2
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Sub-Saharan Africa’s vehicle parc is growing but dominated by used vehicles.
Web 2022
Africavehicles
Exhibit 1 of 5
Note: The boundaries and names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by McKinsey & Company. 
¹Except for two-wheelers.
²Cars, minibuses, and light commercial vehicles; not including South Africa, where used-vehicle imports are banned.
³A light duty vehicle is a four-wheeler of less than 3.5 tons. 
Source: IHS Markit consumer survey of ~1,000 vehicle owners in Nigeria and Kenya; Global trade in used vehicles, UN Environment Programme, October 
26, 2020; McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Vehicles on the road in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda, million


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Vehicles on the road in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, and Uganda, million
Vehicle ownership, number of vehicles per 1,000 people Vehicle life expectancy,¹ years
Sub-Saharan Africa used-vehicle regulatory 
environment for light duty vehicles³
2022
2040
25
58
GlobalDeveloping 
Asia, Oceania, 
Middle East
Cars² Motorcycles
15–20
2–5
Nigeria
25
79
180
Kenya
17
Ethiopia
2
40%
of all used vehicles exported 
globally end up in Africa
>80%
of all four-wheeler vehicle imports² 
to sub-Saharan Africa are used 
$6,000–$10,000
is the average price of a used 
passenger car in Kenya and Nigeria
Good or very good
7 countries ban import of used 
vehicles over 5 years old and/or 
have adopted at least a Euro 4 
emissions standard for imports
Weak or very weak


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vehicles over 5 years old and/or 
have adopted at least a Euro 4 
emissions standard for imports
Weak or very weak
39 countries allow imports of used 
vehicles of 6 years old or older 
and/or have adopted a Euro 3 
emissions standard or lower for
imports
Banned 
3 countries have a complete 
restriction on used-vehicle imports
Not in-scope for this article
Exhibit 1
Sub-Saharan Africa’s growing vehicle parc is dominated by used vehicles.
3
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Some governments in sub-Saharan Africa have 
started to announce electrification targets for 
vehicles and incentives for EV adoption—such as 
Rwanda’s announced tax exemptions for EV sales. 
Moreover, a growing start-up ecosystem for EVs, 
focusing particularly on electric two-wheelers, is 
emerging in the region. McKinsey estimates that as 
of the end of 2021, there were more than 20 start-
ups in the ecosystem, which combined raised over 
$25 million in funding that year.4  
While momentum is building, sub-Saharan Africa 
faces some unique challenges in its electric mobility 
transition, including, in some cases, unreliable 
electricity supply, low vehicle affordability, and the 
dominance of used vehicles. Many countries have 
made significant strides toward improving electricity


key: chroma:document
string_value:
dominance of used vehicles. Many countries have 
made significant strides toward improving electricity 
access (all six countries mentioned have urban-
electricity-access rates above 70 percent and 
some more than 90 percent); however, electricity 
reliability remains an issue. A 2019 survey across 
34 African countries found that fewer than half of 
those connected to the grid have reliable electricity.5  
In addition, the reported 2020 System Average 
Interruption Disruption Index (SAIDI) for sub-
Saharan Africa was 39.30 versus 0.87 for OECD 
high-income countries.6,7
The second challenge is affordability, shaped 
by comparatively low household incomes, low 
availability of asset finance at affordable rates, and 
higher price points for EVs.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
availability of asset finance at affordable rates, and 
higher price points for EVs. 
The third issue is the dominance of used vehicles 
on much of the continent (excluding a few countries 
such as South Africa, where used-vehicle imports 
are banned). In most sub-Saharan African countries, 
around 85 percent of all four-wheel vehicle sales 
are used vehicles.8 This is driven by affordability 
challenges and weak regulation, with many 
countries allowing the import of vehicles over 15 
years’ old and with fairly low emissions standards. 
A 2020 United Nations Environment Programme 
(UNEP) report states that 40 out of 49 sub-Saharan 
Africa countries have weak or very weak used-
vehicle regulations.9 New EVs will therefore struggle 
to compete with old, low-cost ICE vehicles that are


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vehicle regulations.9 New EVs will therefore struggle 
to compete with old, low-cost ICE vehicles that are 
readily available in the region. And, given that 40 
percent of all globally exported used vehicles end 
up in Africa, the continent runs the risk of becoming 
a dumping ground for used ICE vehicles while the 
rest of the world transitions to an electric transport 
future.10
In this article, we look at some of the challenges and 
opportunities associated with sub-Saharan Africa’s 
electric transport journey, including some of the 
steps governments, development partners, and 
private-sector stakeholders can consider taking to 
build an enabling ecosystem for EVs in the region.
 4 Publicly announced funding only.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
build an enabling ecosystem for EVs in the region.
 4 Publicly announced funding only.
 5 “Prerequisite for progress: Accessible, reliable power still in short supply across Africa,” Afrobarometer survey, December 5, 2019.
 6 Doing Business 2020, World Bank.
 7 SAIDI measures the total duration of customer interruptions of electricity supply over a year divided by the number of customers, such that a 
higher value is worse than a lower value. The SAIDI value for sub-Saharan Africa covers 20 countries.  
8 Global trade in used vehicles, UN Environment Programme, October 26, 2020.
9 Ibid.
10 Ibid.
4
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
In assessing the opportunity for EV adoption 
in sub-Saharan Africa, we engaged more than 
70 organizations, including local EV start-ups, 
vehicle assemblers and distributors, electricity-
distribution companies, commercial fleet owners, 
minibus associations, regulators, and financiers, 
and surveyed nearly 1,000 vehicle owners in 
major markets. This article focuses primarily 
on two-wheelers, passenger cars, minibuses 
(14-seater vans, currently the predominant form 
of public transport in sub-Saharan Africa), and 
light commercial vehicles (vans), which together 
comprise most of the vehicle parc in sub-Saharan 
Africa (see sidebar “Large buses and trucks”). South 
Africa is not included in this analysis due to some key 
differences compared with the rest of the region,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Africa is not included in this analysis due to some key 
differences compared with the rest of the region, 
including its ban on used-vehicle imports, higher 
consumer income, and relatively small two-wheeler 
parc (less than 3 percent of the total vehicle parc, 
versus up to 50 percent in most other sub-Saharan 
African countries). However, many of the findings 
are likely still applicable in the overall South African 
context.
This article’s findings indicate high awareness of EVs 
among drivers, a favorable total cost of ownership 
for EVs, and a growing use case for electric two-
wheelers in particular, though up-front costs may 
stall the widespread uptake of EVs. 
Awareness of EVs is high among passenger-car 
owners. 
Over 90 percent of all vehicle owners surveyed


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Awareness of EVs is high among passenger-car 
owners. 
Over 90 percent of all vehicle owners surveyed 
in Nigeria and Kenya had heard of EVs, with most 
recognizing that the technology is sound and 
better for the environment. However, almost all 
stated “range anxiety” (see sidebar “Common 
EV terminology”) and high up-front costs as their 
primary concerns. 
Common EV Terminology
EVs typically refer to BEVs (battery elec-
tric vehicles) unless otherwise specified.
Range anxiety is the concern that a battery 
may lose charge while on the road without 
access to charging infrastructure.
Parc refers to the total stock of vehicles on 
the road.
(EV) adoption rate is the share of electric 
vehicles purchased in a year.
Vehicle charging is divided into three levels:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vehicles purchased in a year.
Vehicle charging is divided into three levels:
• Level 1 charging uses a standard 
home power outlet and typically 
provides 5 to 8 kilometers (km) per 
hour of charging. 
• Level 2 charging requires special-
ized equipment, costing between 
$200 to $1,000, that can be 
installed at home, at the workplace, 
or in public locations and can charge 
20 to 130 km per hour (depending 
on the equipment). 
• Level 3 (or DC fast charging) uses 
direct current (DC), costs tens of 
thousands of dollars per charger to 
install, and can charge 5 to 30 km 
per minute. This type of charger is 
typically for high-use commercial 
vehicles like buses or for highway 
driving where fast charging is re-
quired midoperation.
Vans (or light commercial vehicles) are


key: chroma:document
string_value:
driving where fast charging is re-
quired midoperation.
Vans (or light commercial vehicles) are 
less than 3.5 tons, including panel vans, 
utility vans, and pickups.
Opportunities and challenges to EV adoption in sub-Saharan Africa
5
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The total cost of ownership is favorable, but 
up-front costs are currently prohibitive. 
The total cost of ownership (TCO) of EVs is more 
favorable than that of ICE vehicles, even in countries 
with fairly high electricity costs like Kenya, where 
the residential electricity tariff is over 20 cents 
per kilowatt-hour (Exhibit 2). These economics 
improve the more a vehicle is driven due to the 
lower operating costs, meaning that vehicles used 
for commercial purposes (such as minibuses, vans, 
and two-wheelers) are more favorable for early 
transition. Despite high awareness of EVs, few 
individuals we surveyed understood the benefits, 
with some commercial fleet owners and bus 
associations expressing surprise at the favorable 
lifetime economics of EVs.  
Exhibit 2


key: chroma:document
string_value:
associations expressing surprise at the favorable 
lifetime economics of EVs.  
Exhibit 2
EVs are more affordable over their lifetime than ICE vehicles in Kenya.
6
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Nonetheless, up-front costs remain a barrier. While 
Exhibit 2 shows the projected comparison for a used 
ICE vehicle and electric car in 2030, the availability 
of EVs is currently limited to new vehicles, whereas 
most vehicles purchased in sub-Saharan Africa are 
low-cost used ICE vehicles. Surveyed passenger-
car owners in Kenya and Nigeria estimate they 
spend between $6,000 and $10,000 to purchase 
a used ICE vehicle. Until used four-wheeler EVs 
become available at scale at similar prices—likely 
in the mid to late 2030s, it is unlikely they will 
be able to compete without incentives. In sub-
Saharan Africa, this also impacts some commercial 
vehicle classes, such as vans, as these are often 
purchased used and owned by individuals or private


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vehicle classes, such as vans, as these are often 
purchased used and owned by individuals or private 
associations who then hire them out. In Kenya, for 
example, nearly 50 percent of all vans are likely 
owned by individuals on a for-hire basis, which 
means that the ability to purchase an EV still relies 
on the owner’s income and access to affordable 
financing. 
Driving behavior in Africa is suitable for EV 
adoption, with some exceptions. 
Understanding driving and parking behavior is 
critical to assessing the region’s potential for EV 
adoption. Vehicle owners who tend to drive less 
than 100 kilometers (km) per day and park in a 
dedicated space at home or at work can typically 
use basic Level 1 or Level 2 EV charging (see sidebar 
“Common EV terminology”). Most personal car


key: chroma:document
string_value:
use basic Level 1 or Level 2 EV charging (see sidebar 
“Common EV terminology”). Most personal car 
owners in sub-Saharan Africa fit these criteria, even 
when factoring in time spent in traffic, as EVs are 
very efficient in start-stop conditions. 
The picture becomes more complex, however, for 
taxis, minibuses, and vans that are in frequent use 
and travel long distances every day. Vehicles that 
travel more than 100 km a day with limited stops 
would require fairly high-cost Level 3 DC fast-
charging infrastructure along major routes or at 
commercial centers. Short routes for minibuses and 
vans that park overnight at a fixed station may be 
more suitable for early EV adoption, where a wall 
charger can be installed with comparatively limited 
investment.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
more suitable for early EV adoption, where a wall 
charger can be installed with comparatively limited 
investment. 
Emerging use case for electric two-wheeler 
adoption.
Unlike all other vehicle segments assessed, two-
wheelers (called boda bodas in much of East Africa 
and okadas in Nigeria) are predominantly purchased 
new in sub-Saharan Africa. More than nine in ten 
two-wheelers are purchased for commercial use as 
taxis or delivery services. Commercial use results 
Large buses and trucks
This McKinsey analysis focuses on smaller 
vehicle classes. The technology and 
ecosystem for the electrification of large, 
long-haul trucks are still being developed 
globally and are unlikely to scale to sub-
Saharan Africa in the next 20 years.
Large buses have a case for electrification,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Saharan Africa in the next 20 years.
Large buses have a case for electrification, 
with China and the European Union both 
setting targets for their adoption (electric 
buses are already widespread in many 
Chinese cities).i However, as most large 
buses in sub-Saharan Africa are currently 
used for intercity transportation, often 
driving well above 100 km a day, they 
are, for now, unlikely candidates for 
electrification. 
Minibuses remain the dominant form of 
urban public transportation. However, 
governments in sub-Saharan Africa are 
increasingly encouraging the use of large 
buses for urban public transport, which 
could impact the electrification potential 
and charging infrastructure required. For 
example, Kenya has stated that it will be 
encouraging the use of electric buses


key: chroma:document
string_value:
example, Kenya has stated that it will be 
encouraging the use of electric buses 
as part of the Nairobi Bus Rapid Transit 
system.ii
i “The European electric bus market is charging ahead, but how will it develop?, ” McKinsey, July 2, 2018.
ii Hilary Kimuyu, “Kenya: Nairobi BRT lane is for electric buses only, says PS Hinga,” AllAfrica, June 9, 2021.
7
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
in a higher average distance traveled per vehicle, 
which improves the TCO of the electric two-wheeler 
versus the ICE two-wheeler. This also results in a 
fairly high fleet turnover, with an urban owner in 
Kenya and Nigeria purchasing a new two-wheeler 
every two to three years, on average. And because 
electric two-wheelers have a small battery, they can 
be charged via a mini-grid, making them suitable 
for use in locations with low access to reliable 
electricity-grid infrastructure. They can also benefit 
from a battery-swap model, in which a depleted 
battery is replaced with a fully charged battery from 
a designated “swap station” in just a few minutes. 
These factors strengthen the case for more 
widespread adoption of electric two-wheelers in


key: chroma:document
string_value:
These factors strengthen the case for more 
widespread adoption of electric two-wheelers in 
sub-Saharan Africa, following the trend seen in 
Asia.11 A number of start-ups are already investing 
in the region’s nascent electric two-wheeler space 
to design vehicles at a cost and durability suitable 
for the local market. For example, Opibus in Kenya 
is investing in local R&D and assembly to build an 
electric motorcycle tailored to the needs of boda 
boda drivers who demand a high-durability vehicle 
that can go up to 130 km per day at a comparable 
cost to an ICE two-wheeler. Companies such 
as Ampersand in Rwanda are also developing a 
network of battery-swapping stations to enable 
two-wheeler drivers to exchange depleted batteries 
for fully charged batteries on the go.


key: chroma:document
string_value:
two-wheeler drivers to exchange depleted batteries 
for fully charged batteries on the go. 
Even with this emerging use case, there are still 
challenges to overcome. Issues include the higher 
up-front price point for electric two-wheelers versus 
ICE two-wheelers (estimated at $1,700 to $1,800 in 
mid-2021 versus $1,300 in Kenya), unknown battery 
lifetime data given that motorcycles in sub-Saharan 
Africa go much longer daily distances than those in 
Asia, and the high cost of battery swapping. 
Despite these challenges, the TCO for electric two-
wheelers is favorable. Even with a higher up-front 
cost—and assuming no residual value—the electric 
two-wheeler is 25 percent cheaper over a five-
year life cycle compared with an ICE two-wheeler


key: chroma:document
string_value:
two-wheeler is 25 percent cheaper over a five-
year life cycle compared with an ICE two-wheeler 
due to fuel and maintenance savings. Moreover, 
initial driver feedback on electric two-wheelers 
in sub-Saharan Africa has been very positive. A 
recent pilot by the UK Aid–funded Manufacturing 
Africa program involving a side-by-side test of 20 
drivers using electric two-wheelers and 20 drivers 
using ICE two-wheelers found that more than 90 
percent of the electric two-wheeler drivers felt they 
performed as well, if not better, than the ICE two-
wheeler. All of the participating drivers indicated 
that they are likely or very likely to purchase an 
electric two-wheeler as their next vehicle. This 
combination of local companies investing to solve


key: chroma:document
string_value:
electric two-wheeler as their next vehicle. This 
combination of local companies investing to solve 
the challenges to adoption and positive consumer 
perception suggests high potential for electric two-
wheelers in the region.
Most four-wheelers purchased in sub-
Saharan Africa are low-cost used ICE 
vehicles. Until used four-wheeler EVs 
become available at scale at similar 
prices–likely in the mid to late 2030s–it 
is unlikely they will be able to compete 
without incentives.
11 Patrick Hertzke, Jitesh Khanna, Bhavesh Mittal, and Felix Richter, “ Global emergence of electrified small-format mobility, ” McKinsey, October 
6, 2020.
8
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Based on these findings, McKinsey mapped 
different vehicle segments across a number of 
criteria to determine their feasibility for EV adoption 
in sub-Saharan Africa (Exhibit 3). This mapping is 
based on the situation today; as more used EVs 
become available post-2030 and technologies 
evolve, this assessment may evolve too.
Exhibit 3
Electric two-wheelers are currently the most feasible vehicle segment for 
adoption in sub-Saharan Africa.
Mixed potential for electric vehicles in sub-Saharan Africa
9
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Using this analysis, two potential scenarios emerge 
for EV adoption in sub-Saharan Africa: 
•  Base-case scenario, primarily driven by 
as-is market conditions. Under this scenario, 
regulatory intervention to encourage the 
EV transition is limited; adoption is driven 
by EV affordability and availability. Vehicle 
segments that are dominated by used vehicles 
do not transition at any significant level until 
after 2035, when used EVs start to become 
available at sufficient scale to compete with 
used ICE vehicles in terms of affordability. 
Corporate-owned fleets (estimated at around 
half of all vans) are expected to switch to EVs 
faster, driven by companies’ sustainability 
commitments and the benefits of EV’s lower 
operating costs. Given the existing momentum


key: chroma:document
string_value:
commitments and the benefits of EV’s lower 
operating costs. Given the existing momentum 
in the electric two-wheeler segment, this 
segment is expected to grow dramatically, in 
line with the trend in Asia, given favorable 
TCO and high fleet turnover. This scenario 
also factors in the current electricity reliability 
issues in each country (for example, in Nigeria, 
low reliability means lower adoption rates) 
but assumes that investments will continue to 
improve reliability over time.
•  Accelerated case scenario, with EV market 
actively shaped by stakeholders. Under 
this scenario, multiple interventions lead 
to accelerated adoption. For example, 
governments put in place regulations and 
incentives to encourage adoption, such as 
those seen in other countries, including ICE


key: chroma:document
string_value:
incentives to encourage adoption, such as 
those seen in other countries, including ICE 
vehicle sales bans and tax exemptions for EVs. 
This accelerates adoption across all vehicle 
segments but could have greater impact 
on minibus and van segments in particular, 
where owners are more “TCO conscious” and 
also potentially more likely to face targeted 
incentives or regulations, such as mandates 
for all public transport to be electric within a 
certain timeframe. This is the case in countries 
such as Norway, where 75 percent of long-
distance buses must be zero-emission by 
2030.12  This scenario assumes government 
or private actors invest significantly in the 
electricity system, improving overall electricity 
reliability and installing fast-charging


key: chroma:document
string_value:
electricity system, improving overall electricity 
reliability and installing fast-charging 
infrastructure for taxis, minibuses, and vans.
In both scenarios, this analysis indicates that 
two-wheelers will electrify fastest, with electric 
two-wheeler sales rising to 50 to 70 percent of 
all sales by 2040 (Exhibit 4). In Kenya and Nigeria 
alone—two of the largest two-wheeler markets in 
sub-Saharan Africa—this would translate into three 
million to four million electric two-wheeler sales per 
year by 2040.
In the electric two-wheelers segment,
there is already an emerging use case 
today, and this segment is expected to 
grow dramatically, in line with the trend 
in Asia, given favorable TCO and
high fleet turnover.
12 Norwegian National Transport Plan, 2022-2033.
10


key: chroma:document
string_value:
in Asia, given favorable TCO and
high fleet turnover.
12 Norwegian National Transport Plan, 2022-2033.
10
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Vans and minibuses would likely electrify next, 
but they have greater variability in the base and 
accelerated cases due to the potential of targeted 
regulation, with approximately 20 percent and 25 
percent sales adoption by 2040 in the base case, 
respectively, and around 35 percent and 45 percent 
in the accelerated case. 
Electrification of passenger cars would likely be 
slowest, due to the expected supply constraints of 
used EVs in Africa before 2030. In the base case, 
around one in five passenger cars will be electric 
by 2040, and in the accelerated case, nearly one 
in three, based on stricter import regulation on 
used cars or incentives for EV adoption such as tax 
exemptions. This equates to a roughly ten-year “lag” 
behind the expected adoption trend in the European


key: chroma:document
string_value:
exemptions. This equates to a roughly ten-year “lag” 
behind the expected adoption trend in the European 
Union. 
In aggregate, across all vehicle segments, these 
scenarios could result in a 20 to 25 percent annual 
carbon emissions reduction in 2040, assuming the 
current electricity-generation mix.13
Exhibit 4
Electric-vehicle adoption in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be highest for 
two-wheelers, but other segments can grow significantly in an accelerated case.
13 Based on analysis of Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Rwanda, which make up approximately 50 percent of all vehicle sales in sub-
Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa). Reduction is based on what 2040 tailpipe emissions would have been without EVs versus with EVs.
11


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The curves in Exhibit 4 represent an average 
across five countries that make up 60 percent of 
all vehicle sales in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding 
South Africa. Some countries, such as Rwanda and 
Kenya, are expected to transition faster, with EVs 
accounting for 60 to 75 percent of all two-wheeler 
sales by 2040. This is due to a range of factors, such 
as stronger regulation on the age of used-vehicle 
imports in Kenya, incentives for EV adoption in 
Rwanda, comparatively better electricity reliability 
in both countries, and the growing presence of EV 
start-ups.
EVs are an evolving technology, and this analysis 
makes several assumptions on unknown factors, 
including competition with alternative fuels (see 
sidebar “Alternative fuels”). One critical unknown is


key: chroma:document
string_value:
including competition with alternative fuels (see 
sidebar “Alternative fuels”). One critical unknown is 
how long batteries will last and whether they will be 
suitable for the 300,000 km lifetime mileage often 
seen in Africa. Two test cases of the Tesla Model S 
and Nissan Leaf have shown these vehicles going 
over 150,000 km with at least 80 percent of the 
original battery capacity retained.14 Based on these 
results and the ongoing investments in battery 
technology, this analysis assumes that batteries will 
indeed last for many miles. We further assume that 
used EVs will follow similar depreciation curves and 
export trends as seen for ICE vehicles. For example, 
countries will not seek to retain used EVs in their 
home markets to recycle batteries, as the value


key: chroma:document
string_value:
countries will not seek to retain used EVs in their 
home markets to recycle batteries, as the value 
of an exported EV is higher than that of a recycled 
battery, meaning it makes more economic sense to 
export the used EV. 
Due to the challenges mentioned, sub-Saharan 
Africa’s EV adoption curves are still slower than 
those expected globally. For example, by 2040 90 
percent of all two-wheeler sales are expected to be 
electric, driven by growing demand in India, China, 
and Southeast Asia, as are nearly 70 percent of all 
car sales. Nonetheless, even if the adoption rates 
are lower, the difference between the base case 
and accelerated case is significant in sub-Saharan 
countries, with the accelerated case translating to 
more than double the number of EVs on the road by


key: chroma:document
string_value:
countries, with the accelerated case translating to 
more than double the number of EVs on the road by 
2030 and 30 percent more by 2040.
14 Based on consumer surveys run by Plug In America and Consumer Reports.
One critical unknown is how long 
batteries will last and whether they will 
be suitable for the 300,000 km lifetime 
mileage often seen in Africa.
12
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Building an enabling ecosystem
Governments, development partners, and private 
stakeholders can consider working together to build 
the ecosystem required to help EVs scale in sub-
Saharan Africa and push toward the accelerated 
growth case. 
Four primary categories of enablers could be 
considered:
• scaling electricity and charging infrastructure
• innovating local production and supply chains 
• considering regulatory mechanisms
• financing assets, assemblers, and 
infrastructure
Scaling electricity and charging infrastructure
Stable electricity supply and charging infrastructure 
will need to be built ahead of demand to mitigate 
the range anxiety that may hinder consumers from 
adopting EVs. 
Electricity system developers and operators will


key: chroma:document
string_value:
the range anxiety that may hinder consumers from 
adopting EVs. 
Electricity system developers and operators will 
need to plan ahead to build the infrastructure for 
EVs. This includes improving electricity access 
and reliability, while also planning for increased 
domestic consumption at off-peak times, since 
vehicles are likely to be charging overnight. In the 
case of electric two-wheelers, charging is also 
possible via mini-grids, making these vehicles a core 
solution in areas with poor grid access or reliability.
Alternative Fuels
Some countries and private companies in 
sub-Saharan Africa are exploring “cleaner” 
fossil fuels as a stepping-stone to lowering 
carbon emissions from transport, including 
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), also called


key: chroma:document
string_value:
carbon emissions from transport, including 
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), also called 
autogas or compressed natural gas (CNG). 
Both fuels can drive a 10 to 15 percent 
reduction in tailpipe carbon emissions 
compared with petrol.i This is compared 
with at least 40 percent reduction (and up 
to 100 percent) for EVs, even in countries 
with a high use of fossil fuels in electricity 
generation. LPG and CNG should thus 
be viewed only as transition fuels on the 
journey to zero-emission transport.
Conversion to autogas requires a 
comparatively low-cost upgrade to an 
existing petrol engine, at a cost that 
can be recovered in less than one year 
for commercial vehicles traveling long 
distances. Many countries are already 
making investments in LPG terminal and


key: chroma:document
string_value:
for commercial vehicles traveling long 
distances. Many countries are already 
making investments in LPG terminal and 
distribution infrastructure to support 
its use as a clean cooking fuel. This 
infrastructure could be cross-leveraged 
to support autogas for transport as 
an intermediate step for some vehicle 
segments. In particular, conversion to 
autogas can be relatively low cost for 
commercial vehicles like taxis, heavy 
vehicles like large buses, and even 
large long-haul trucks—segments that 
will require significant infrastructure 
investment to support electrification due to 
their high daily mileage.
CNG, on the other hand, has a weaker 
investment case. Unlike LPG, its primary 
use would be for road transport. This 
would require building dedicated high-cost


key: chroma:document
string_value:
use would be for road transport. This 
would require building dedicated high-cost 
infrastructure (including port and inland 
terminals, bulk storage, and distribution 
and retail networks) for a fuel that is at 
best a stepping-stone toward cleaner 
transport at a time when the global trend 
is toward electrification, with ICE vehicles 
being phased out by many manufacturers. 
The investment might be better directed 
toward strengthening and decarbonizing 
the electricity grid and making EV charging 
more accessible.
Another fuel option is hydrogen, which can 
have zero to minimal carbon emissions if 
using green or blue production methods. 
However, according to the Hydrogen 
Council, the costs of hydrogen production 
currently make it economically viable


key: chroma:document
string_value:
However, according to the Hydrogen 
Council, the costs of hydrogen production 
currently make it economically viable 
only for heavier road-transportation 
applications such as large trucks.ii
i Ross Ryskamp, Emissions and performance of liquefied petroleum gas as a transportation fuel: A review, World LPG Association, October 3, 2017.
ii Hydrogen Insights: A perspective on hydrogen investment, market development and cost competitiveness, Hydrogen Council, February 17, 2021.
13
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Companies can also proactively invest in charging 
infrastructure, including partnerships with large 
retail actors to set up public charging stations. For 
example, many minibuses in Kenya park overnight 
at petrol stations so setting up charging in these 
locations could enable an electric transition for 
minibuses. Partnerships with shared-mobility 
providers could also help with charging-network 
optimization. This is being seen in Asia, where Gojek 
(a ride-hailing company) and Gogoro (an electric 
two-wheeler company) are partnering in Indonesia 
to set up battery- swapping stations in high-use 
locations.15
In addition to charging, electric two-wheelers will 
likely need to be supported by a network of battery-
swapping stations, as the long daily distances


key: chroma:document
string_value:
likely need to be supported by a network of battery-
swapping stations, as the long daily distances 
traveled by many commercial two-wheelers mean 
they might need to swap “on the go.” The creation of 
a common battery standard would significantly help 
in the development of the sector, as it would allow 
for the creation of a common battery-swapping 
“utility” that would bring down the amount of battery 
inventory required for each company. This initiative 
is already being pursued globally through the 
swappable battery consortium formed in 2021 by 
Piaggio, KTM, Honda, and Yamaha.16
Innovating local production and supply chains 
EV companies could consider investing in 
homegrown-product innovation to design or tailor 
EVs for local needs and conditions. As mentioned,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
homegrown-product innovation to design or tailor 
EVs for local needs and conditions. As mentioned, 
two-wheelers in sub-Saharan Africa tend to travel 
much longer daily distances compared with those 
in Asia (up to 130 km in Kenya versus an estimated 
40 to 50 km in Asia). Developing an electric two-
wheeler that is both durable and capable of carrying 
a spare battery may be required to meet the needs 
of the sub-Saharan African two-wheeler driver. 
Stakeholders can also invest in retrofitting existing 
ICE vehicles with electric powertrains. This would 
likely be the most economically feasible alternative 
for larger vehicles that go long distances, such as 
vans or minibuses, as the lifetime cost trade-off of 
an electric versus an ICE powertrain is favorable


key: chroma:document
string_value:
vans or minibuses, as the lifetime cost trade-off of 
an electric versus an ICE powertrain is favorable 
over a shorter timeframe.
Local vehicle assemblers may also invest in national 
and regional supply chains by manufacturing some 
parts locally. Going even further upstream, and 
as discussed in McKinsey’s Green Africa report, 
sub-Saharan Africa has many of the raw materials 
needed to develop a supply chain for at least the 
attractive cathode segment of batteries used in EVs.
Considering regulatory mechanisms
As seen in other countries, regulatory mechanisms 
can be a significant driver for EV adoption. Globally, 
countries have adopted a range of approaches, 
including hard targets such as banning sales of 
ICE vehicles within certain timeframes or setting


key: chroma:document
string_value:
including hard targets such as banning sales of 
ICE vehicles within certain timeframes or setting 
emissions standards or fiscal incentives such 
as tax exemptions for EV sales or subsidies for 
charging infrastructure. These can also include soft 
incentives such as reduced registration times for 
EVs or allowing free parking for EV drivers   
(Exhibit 5).
15  “Gojek and Gogoro announce strategic partnership to electrify two wheel transportation in Indonesia,” Gogoro press release, November 2, 
2021. 
16  “Honda signs a letter of intent with KTM, Piaggio and Yamaha Motor for the creation of a swappable batteries consortium for motorcycles and 
light electric vehicles,” Honda press release, March 1, 2021.
14


key: chroma:document
string_value:
light electric vehicles,” Honda press release, March 1, 2021.
14
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Exhibit 5
Countries globally have adopted a range of regulatory mechanisms to accelerate 
EV adoption.
15
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Financing assets, assemblers, and infrastructure
Four broad types of financing would help to 
accelerate the transition, including asset financing, 
financing for EV importers and assemblers, 
financing for charging infrastructure (for example, 
battery-swapping stations for electric two-
wheelers, installation of Level 1 and Level 2 public 
charging points), and infrastructure financing for 
electricity grid and mini-grid development. This 
will require some innovation in financing models, 
including credit guarantees to derisk lending. Take 
asset financing, for example. Formal asset financing 
is an established model in some countries, such 
as Kenya, where an estimated 90 percent of two-
wheelers are financed through specialized players. 
Other countries rely on more informal models,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
wheelers are financed through specialized players. 
Other countries rely on more informal models, 
such as Nigeria, where around 30 percent of two-
wheelers are financed via okada associations and 
the remainder through informal borrowing from 
friends and family. The unknown depreciation 
curves and technology life cycles of EVs mean 
that asset financiers might be reluctant to finance 
them. Derisking models such as credit guarantees 
might be required to encourage asset financing for 
EVs. For vehicles such as vans or minibuses, lease-
to-own models for retrofitted electric powertrains 
could also be explored.
The authors wish to thank Shell Foundation for its research contributions to this article. The authors also


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The authors wish to thank Shell Foundation for its research contributions to this article. The authors also 
wish to thank Deston Barger, Chania Frost, Joel Kpadonou, Elizabeth Platt, Yunus Rocker, Nikul Roshania, 
and Patrick Schaufuss for their contributions.
Copyright © 2022 McKinsey & Company. All rights reserved.
Julian Conzade is a solution manager in McKinsey's Munich office, Hauke Engel is a partner in the Frankfurt office, Adam 
Kendall is a partner in the Lagos office, and Gillian Pais is a partner in the Nairobi office.
Innovative financing models, such as carbon credits 
for charging infrastructure, are already being 
launched globally. The world’s first validated and 
registered carbon offset program for EV chargers, 
with plans to finance 3,500 fast-chargers in the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
registered carbon offset program for EV chargers, 
with plans to finance 3,500 fast-chargers in the 
United States, was announced in 2020 by SCS 
Global Services, Electrify America, and Verra. 17 
                              
Sub-Saharan Africa faces many unique challenges 
in the electrification of transport, but it is critical 
that the continent is not left behind as the rest of 
the world transitions. Failure to create an enabling 
ecosystem for electric transport could see the 
region becoming a dumping ground for old ICE 
vehicles, setting back the continent’s carbon-
emission-reduction goals as the vehicle parc 
continues to grow in the decades ahead. 
The automotive future may be electric, but in 
sub-Saharan Africa, private-sector stakeholders,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
The automotive future may be electric, but in 
sub-Saharan Africa, private-sector stakeholders, 
development partners, and governments may need 
to consider collaborative measures to accelerate the 
EV transition, or Africa may find itself stuck in the 
slow lane.
17 “World’s first validated and registered carbon offset project for electric vehicle chargers announced by SCS Global Services, Electrify America 
and Verra,” SCS Global Services, July 22, 2020. 
16
Power to move: Accelerating the electric transport transition in sub-Saharan Africa


key: source
string_value:
/Users/olusojiapampa/Library/Mobile Documents/com~apple~CloudDocs/Documents/Proposals/PropCom/PropCom+/propcom-rrca/data/corpus/30_intervention_C_electrical_vehicles_evs/enea_shellfoundation_impactcasesustainablemobility_web.pdf


key: chroma:document
string_value:
This document is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 
4.0 International License. To view the license: http ://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-sa/4.0/
enea-consulting.com
www.shellfoundation.org
linkedin.com/company/enea-consulting
Enea Consulting is a strategy consultancy that 
maximises energy transition opportunities for public 
and private organisations globally. Through dedicated 
consulting services and pro bono support to NGOs 
and social entrepreneurs, Enea is also committed to 
improving energy access, especially in developing 
countries.
Shell Foundation (SF) is a UK-registered charity, 
founded by Shell in 2000, that creates and scales 
business solutions to enhance access to energy 
and affordable transport. We exist to serve the


key: chroma:document
string_value:
business solutions to enhance access to energy 
and affordable transport. We exist to serve the 
low-income communities most affected by these 
issues. We provide patient support to social 
enterprises and institutions capable of delivering 
social change at scale across Africa and Asia via 
disruptive technologies or business models without 
long-term reliance on charitable support or subsidy.
Sébastien HOLL
Analyst, Enea Consulting
Heike NIEMANN
Analyst, Enea Consulting
Madeleine POST-LEGENDRE
Principal, Enea Consulting
Report authors
Key contributors
Nicholas JONES
Market Development Manager,  
Shell Foundation
Emma STEPHENSON
Business Manager, Sustainable Mobility Lead, 
Shell Foundation
Natalie WONG
Mobility Portoflio Growth and Investment Lead,  
Shell Foundation


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Shell Foundation
Natalie WONG
Mobility Portoflio Growth and Investment Lead,  
Shell Foundation
Sam Parker – Shell Foundation Director
“We seek tough problems, apply business thinking, prize 
resilience, value innovation, accept risk, leverage partnerships 
and believe markets can empower people of all incomes.’’


key: chroma:document
string_value:
2
•
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The case for impact investment in sustainable mobility  
in developing countries
Enea Consulting – July 2021
Introduction
Sustainable Mobility is a unique and budding 
sector for which solutions are critical given 
projected demographic growth in developing 
countries. By definition, mobility comprises the 
free movement of people and goods and services 
from one location to another. Mobility investment 
in developing countries typically involves public 
investment in large transport infrastructure 
projects, whilst impact investment is categorised 
under other impact sectors such as health, 
agriculture and energy.
USD 250 bn 
Annual mobility investment required gap in 
emerging markets by 2030
Going beyond known transport solutions,


key: chroma:document
string_value:
Annual mobility investment required gap in 
emerging markets by 2030
Going beyond known transport solutions, 
Sustainable Mobility ventures involve entrepreneur-
led B2C solutions in rural and urban settings, 
targeting low-income populations and remedying 
key challenges of mobility in developing countries. 
They seek to alleviate multiple mobility challenges 
in emerging markets, including; accessibility, 
through improving geographical access, inclusion 
of low-income populations through affordable 
mobility, and gender inclusion; health and safety, 
through reducing accidents and improving security 
for passengers; efficiency, through reducing time 
in transit and traffic congestion and improving 
the reliability of mobility solutions; and climate


key: chroma:document
string_value:
in transit and traffic congestion and improving 
the reliability of mobility solutions; and climate 
change and the environment, through reducing 
GHG emissions and pollution.
It is a unique sector in which solutions are critical 
given projected population growth in emerging 
markets. Developing countries, and particularly 
sub-Saharan Africa, host 98% of the 1 bn people 
in the world without access to transport (other 
than walking). Additionally, 2.4 bn more people 
are expected to live in cities in non-OECD countries 
by 2050, indicating the urban population will 
likely increase by 6.75 mn every month. There is a 
compelling need and opportunity for investment 
in creative Sustainable Mobility solutions that 
have potential for significant impact, particularly


key: chroma:document
string_value:
in creative Sustainable Mobility solutions that 
have potential for significant impact, particularly 
in achieving United Nations Sustainable 
Development Goals (SDGs).
93% 
Of the 1.25 mn fatalities in transport occur  
in low & middle income countries
91% 
Of 4.2 million premature deaths caused by 
outdoor air pollution are in low & middle 
income countries
200% 
Increase in transport-related CO₂ emissions 
in developing countries between 1990 and 
2016
This report
Combining the results of an investor survey with 
an impact materiality analysis of the whole sector 
and several case studies, this report presents the 
case for impact investment in Sustainable Mobility. 
It is divided into three parts: Part 1, on Sustainable 
Mobility and how it presents a significant


key: chroma:document
string_value:
It is divided into three parts: Part 1, on Sustainable 
Mobility and how it presents a significant 
investment opportunity with a proven funding 
gap; Part 2, on the different impact types the 
sector presents, with a focus on the UN SDGs; and 
Part 3, on seizing the investment opportunities  
presented and how the range of solutions 
and potential impacts make for a compelling 
opportunity for a range of investor types.
Executive summary
CO2
CO2


key: chroma:document
string_value:
3
•
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The case for impact investment in sustainable mobility  
in developing countries
Enea Consulting – July 2021
Key findings
Sustainable Mobility entrepreneurs 
require significant seed and growth 
capital, and the sector retains strong 
potential to generate social impact 
Entrepreneur-led Sustainable Mobility services 
and solutions require significant capital as many 
rely on new assets or infrastructure whilst others 
involve technical innovation, which entails high 
development costs. Furthermore, political and 
financial risks render it difficult to raise funds, 
as enterprises and investors navigate various 
obstacles including the lack of legally binding, 
long-term mobility targets at the national level; 
a lack of consistent regulatory frameworks;


key: chroma:document
string_value:
long-term mobility targets at the national level; 
a lack of consistent regulatory frameworks; 
technology risks; and the lack of mobility sector 
data and information. 
Notwithstanding this, Sustainable Mobility has 
the potential to generate extensive impact on 
customers of the mobility solution, employees, 
and the community the venture serves. 
Furthermore, it encompasses a diverse array of 
ventures at varying levels of maturity, providing 
opportunity to various investor types. Sector 
solutions can also feed investment mandates 
on energy, climate change, and other socio-
economic objectives. Ultimately, regardless of 
the investor type or focus, there is substantial 
opportunity to generate impact, especially with 
respect to:
Improving health and safety:


key: chroma:document
string_value:
opportunity to generate impact, especially with 
respect to:
Improving health and safety: 
Sustainable Mobility has a core and direct 
impact on health and well-being through three 
levers: a reduced number of deaths and injuries 
from transport accidents, improved safety 
within different means of transportation, and a 
reduced number of deaths and illnesses caused 
by air pollution. See Tugende Case Study Pg. 43 
and  SafeBoda Case Study on Pg. 29
800,000 
deaths could be avoided annually if all 
countries reduced their road traffic fatalities  
to OECD levels
Enhancing socio-economic 
development and inclusion: 
Sustainable Mobility solutions advance this 
objective via four main levers: increased mobility 
of low-income populations, increased access to


